Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2><strong>China News That Matters</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li>Talking again after Trump delays further tariffs</li>
<li>Despite reprieve, Huawei vows to end US dependence </li>
<li>Take control – for a hefty premium</li>
<li>Robotaxis – hail one this year?</li>
<li>Violent protests challenge Beijing rule </li>
</ul>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p>
</div>

China News That Matters

Talking again after Trump delays further tariffs
Despite reprieve, Huawei vows to end US dependence 
Take control – for a hefty premium
Robotaxis – hail one this year?
Violent protests challenge Beijing rule 


In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.


Trade Truce/Tech War/Market Opening/NEVs /Hong Kong

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Farha Sabri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sony recently announced several developments to the companies long term strategy. Sony has stated that it is on the look out to carry out M&amp;A activities with game developers. With the release of Stadia potentially  tipping the scales in the gaming industry, Sony is looking to acquire development studios in order to increase the release of high quality games for its consoles.</li>
<li>The company also had a successful opening weekend for the latest Spider-Man movie release. Sony has started expanding products across its entertainment business segments. For instance, the music segment is to provide music for several exclusive games. Similarly, following on from the successful performance of the Spider-Man game and movies, Sony has revealed the making of an Uncharted movie.</li>
<li>In addition to expanding its entertainments businesses, Sony has also gotten into a joint venture with Daiwa Securities to invest in tech startups involved in the AI, robotics and fintech sectors. Following the report's of these expansions, Sony's share price has climbed by approx. 4% since last Friday's close. </li>
</ul>


Sony recently announced several developments to the companies long term strategy. Sony has stated that it is on the look out to carry out M&amp;A activities with game developers. With the release of Stadia potentially  tipping the scales in the gaming industry, Sony is looking to acquire development studios in order to increase the release of high quality games for its consoles.
The company also had a successful opening weekend for the latest Spider-Man movie release. Sony has started expanding products across its entertainment business segments. For instance, the music segment is to provide music for several exclusive games. Similarly, following on from the successful performance of the Spider-Man game and movies, Sony has revealed the making of an Uncharted movie.
In addition to expanding its entertainments businesses, Sony has also gotten into a joint venture with Daiwa Securities to invest in tech startups involved in the AI, robotics and fintech sectors. Following the report's of these expansions, Sony's share price has climbed by approx. 4% since last Friday's close. 


Sony Announces Plans to Acquire Game Developers and Investment in Tech Startups

<ul>
<li>Last week, rumours surfaced regarding a Sony mobile with six rear lenses. At present, three rear camera lenses are popular on phones, with Nokia having proposed five. If rumours stand true, Sony is the first company known to be working on six rear lenses on a phone.</li>
<li>It is a well known fact that Sony’s mobile division has been struggling to make profits. The Xperia brand continues to be popular in several Asian countries and Europe. However, the segment’s lacklustre performance has led to the recent withdrawal of products from several geographical regions.</li>
<li>Several changes have come to the mobile segment as of late as a means of turning the business profitable. The company has also stated that it does not have plans of getting rid of its mobile business. However, in its present stage, Sony would need to have an ace up its sleeve to turnaround the segment’s performance.</li>
</ul>


Last week, rumours surfaced regarding a Sony mobile with six rear lenses. At present, three rear camera lenses are popular on phones, with Nokia having proposed five. If rumours stand true, Sony is the first company known to be working on six rear lenses on a phone.
It is a well known fact that Sony’s mobile division has been struggling to make profits. The Xperia brand continues to be popular in several Asian countries and Europe. However, the segment’s lacklustre performance has led to the recent withdrawal of products from several geographical regions.
Several changes have come to the mobile segment as of late as a means of turning the business profitable. The company has also stated that it does not have plans of getting rid of its mobile business. However, in its present stage, Sony would need to have an ace up its sleeve to turnaround the segment’s performance.


Is Sony Finally Starting to Get Its Mobile Business on Track?

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> • </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/226/original/2019-06-13_16-47-07.png?1560412038" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90226"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTRODUCTION </strong>- The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at<strong> +4</strong> &amp; <strong>-2</strong> and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1">Goldwin (8111 JP)</a> has the distinction of being one of only two large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' since that time.</p><p><strong>This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/196/original/2019-06-13_11-15-27.png?1560392157" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90196"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>STATISTICS</strong> - Currently, of the 3,832 listed companies for which daily RPS data is available, 94 companies are 'Overbought', and 131 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively of the total. For the 758 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 50 'Overbought' and 18 'Oversold' companies, 6.6% and 5.0%, respectively. As noted the companion Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-june-relative-price-scores-market-sectors-peer-groups-more-of-the-same" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30323">🇯🇵 Japan • June Relative Price Scores: Market, Sectors &amp; Peer Groups - More of The Same</a>, these numbers and percentages are unusual and were last seen in the Japanese market in 2000. </p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE TOPS •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/202/original/2019-06-13_13-06-49.png?1560398835" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90202"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RPS 'TOPS'</strong> - In the last two years, 444 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 43 days. 1.4% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 96 companies and 75 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1">Descente (8114 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alfresa-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10610:1">Alfresa (2784 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1">FamilyMart Uny (8028 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kikkoman-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11720:1">Kikkoman (2801 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobayashi-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14930:1">Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eiken-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12675:1">Eiken Chemical (4549 JP)</a>.  </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/201/original/2019-06-13_13-04-38.png?1560398780" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90201"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/203/original/2019-06-13_13-08-46.png?1560398945" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90203"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/204/original/2019-06-13_13-09-37.png?1560399049" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90204"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/205/original/2019-06-13_13-12-01.png?1560399142" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90205"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/316/original/2019-06-15_19-45-47.png?1560595558" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90316"></figure><p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><p><strong>RPS 'BOTTOMS'</strong> - 372 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 61 days. 1.5% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 85 companies and 89 days. A recent example of positive RPS mean reversion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/k-o-energy-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17701:1">K&amp;O Energy (1663 JP)</a>.</p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/207/original/2019-06-13_13-14-03.png?1560399270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90207"></figure><p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL </strong>section below, we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.</p></div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • Source: Japan AnalyticsINTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. Goldwin (8111 JP) has the distinction of being one of only two large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' since that time.This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.Source: Japan AnalyticsSTATISTICS - Currently, of the 3,832 listed companies for which daily RPS data is available, 94 companies are 'Overbought', and 131 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively of the total. For the 758 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 50 'Overbought' and 18 'Oversold' companies, 6.6% and 5.0%, respectively. As noted the companion Insight, 🇯🇵 Japan • June Relative Price Scores: Market, Sectors &amp; Peer Groups - More of The Same, these numbers and percentages are unusual and were last seen in the Japanese market in 2000. • RELATIVE PRICE SCORE TOPS •Source: Japan AnalyticsRPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 444 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 43 days. 1.4% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 96 companies and 75 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been Descente (8114 JP), Alfresa (2784 JP), FamilyMart Uny (8028 JP), Kikkoman (2801 JP), Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967 JP), and Eiken Chemical (4549 JP).  
Source: Japan Analytics
RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 372 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 61 days. 1.5% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 85 companies and 89 days. A recent example of positive RPS mean reversion is K&amp;O Energy (1663 JP).
Source: Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL section below, we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.

🇯🇵 Japan • Relative Price Scores - Overbought & Oversold Companies - June 2019

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

<p>It was reported this week that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd/overview" target="_blank">Samsung Electronics</a> has entered into a multi-year strategic partnership with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices/overview" target="_blank">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)</a>. AMD will license its Radeon graphics technology to Samsung which will be incorporated into future Samsung chips. This will enable Samsung to focus on advanced graphics technologies and solutions which are critical for enhancing innovation across mobile applications including smartphones. According to AMD:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>“AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) and Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. today announced a multi-year strategic partnership in ultra-low power, high performance mobile graphics IP based on AMD Radeon graphics technologies. As part of the partnership, Samsung will license AMD graphics IP and will focus on advanced graphics technologies and solutions that are critical for enhancing innovation across mobile applications including smartphones.”</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>The key terms of the partnership include the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>AMD will license custom graphics IP based on the recently announced, highly-scalable RDNA graphics architecture to Samsung for use in mobile devices, including smartphones, and other products that complement AMD product offerings.</li>
<li>Samsung will pay AMD technology license fees and royalties</li>
</ul>
<p>We believe, both Samsung Electronics and AMD could emerge as big winners of the partnership unless Samsung fails to make the partnership work. We go through the details below.</p>

It was reported this week that Samsung Electronics has entered into a multi-year strategic partnership with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). AMD will license its Radeon graphics technology to Samsung which will be incorporated into future Samsung chips. This will enable Samsung to focus on advanced graphics technologies and solutions which are critical for enhancing innovation across mobile applications including smartphones. According to AMD:

“AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) and Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. today announced a multi-year strategic partnership in ultra-low power, high performance mobile graphics IP based on AMD Radeon graphics technologies. As part of the partnership, Samsung will license AMD graphics IP and will focus on advanced graphics technologies and solutions that are critical for enhancing innovation across mobile applications including smartphones.”

The key terms of the partnership include the following:

AMD will license custom graphics IP based on the recently announced, highly-scalable RDNA graphics architecture to Samsung for use in mobile devices, including smartphones, and other products that complement AMD product offerings.
Samsung will pay AMD technology license fees and royalties

We believe, both Samsung Electronics and AMD could emerge as big winners of the partnership unless Samsung fails to make the partnership work. We go through the details below.

Samsung Electronics Partners with AMD to Reduce Its Reliance on Qualcomm for GPUs

Japan

Sony Corporation manufactures audio, home video game consoles, communications, key device and information technology products for the consumer and professional markets.  The Company's other businesses include music, pictures, computer entertainment, and online businesses.

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Sony Corp (6758 JP)

Trade Truce/Tech War/Market Opening/NEVs /Hong Kong

China News That Matters Talking again after Trump delays further tariffs Despite reprieve, Huawei vows to end US dependence Take control – for a...

Diana Choyleva

Sony Announces Plans to Acquire Game Developers and Investment in Tech Startups

Sony recently announced several developments to the companies long term strategy. Sony has stated that it is on the look out to carry out M&A...

Farha Sabri

Is Sony Finally Starting to Get Its Mobile Business on Track?

Last week, rumours surfaced regarding a Sony mobile with six rear lenses. At present, three rear camera lenses are popular on phones, with Nokia...

Farha Sabri

🇯🇵 Japan • Relative Price Scores - Overbought & Oversold Companies - June 2019

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • INTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by...

Campbell Gunn

Samsung Electronics Partners with AMD to Reduce Its Reliance on Qualcomm for GPUs

It was reported this week that Samsung Electronics has entered into a multi-year strategic partnership with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). AMD will...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

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