Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Interbrand’s annual valuation of top brands saw growing numbers of Japanese firms in retail and FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) enter its global brand ranking.
At home, online companies like Zozo and Mercari are also climbing the rankings.

Interbrand’s annual valuation of top brands saw growing numbers of Japanese firms in retail and FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) enter its global brand ranking.
At home, online companies like Zozo and Mercari are also climbing the rankings.

Uniqlo Japan’s Most Valuable Retail Brand

Japan has a vast number of competing loyalty programmes and until five years ago Japanese consumers would often have as many as 10 loyalty point cards in their wallets.In recent years consumers have gradually begun to whittle down their choices and today there are clear indications of which schemes will dominate.Loyalty point schemes have always been key drivers of shopping behaviour but more recently it has become clear that the choice of e-commerce store is often driven by which loyalty point schemes can be used.At the same time, there are increasing signs that the leading loyalty schemes could take the lead in Japan's emerging cashless payment sector.

Japan has a vast number of competing loyalty programmes and until five years ago Japanese consumers would often have as many as 10 loyalty point cards in their wallets.In recent years consumers have gradually begun to whittle down their choices and today there are clear indications of which schemes will dominate.Loyalty point schemes have always been key drivers of shopping behaviour but more recently it has become clear that the choice of e-commerce store is often driven by which loyalty point schemes can be used.At the same time, there are increasing signs that the leading loyalty schemes could take the lead in Japan's emerging cashless payment sector.

Loyalty Points In Japan: More Loyalty, More Points and the Conduit to Cashless Payments

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

We expect the Q4 18 report in mid-May will be pivotal for sentiment on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/639" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> as the results for its current mid-term plan are announced and new targets for the next three years are set. This plays against a backdrop of moderately higher competitive intensity both in the near-term on cheap handsets and longer-term with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/31" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>  market entry. Shares are down 15% from highs in September 2018 as markets have factored in the new state of affairs but coming out of our meeting with the company today we feel more confident in how they are positioned.

We expect the Q4 18 report in mid-May will be pivotal for sentiment on KDDI Corp (9433 JP) as the results for its current mid-term plan are announced and new targets for the next three years are set. This plays against a backdrop of moderately higher competitive intensity both in the near-term on cheap handsets and longer-term with Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)  market entry. Shares are down 15% from highs in September 2018 as markets have factored in the new state of affairs but coming out of our meeting with the company today we feel more confident in how they are positioned. 

KDDI: Key Takeaways from Company Visit Are Mostly Positive

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/230/original/2019-02-26_16-49-25.png?1551182690" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80230"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
LARGE CAP RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions announcements covers the Results &amp; Revision Scores for Japan's 785 larger capitalisation companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b.
In the DETAIL section below we look at:- 
<ul>
<li>The 30 top and bottom-ranked companies by Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom thirty ranked by change in score over the last quarter and provide brief comments on companies and topics of note.</li>
<li>By comparing Results Scores and Forecast/Revision Scores, we sort companies into'Optimists', 'Pessimists', 'Increasingly Optimistic' and 'Increasingly Pessimistic' categories.</li>
<li>As shown above, the relationship between the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) and our Relative Price Score (RPS) for each company and divide the large-cap universe into four 'quadrants' - 'Contrarian Buy' (Low RRS &amp; Low RPS) , 'Contrarian Sell' (High RRS &amp; High RPS), 'Peak Growth' (High RRS &amp; Low RPS) and 'Ex-Growth/Turnaround'  (Low RRS &amp; High RPS), highlighting the outliers in each quadrant.
<ul>
<li>In the two 'Contrarian' quadrants, the market is aligned with the current earnings momentum of the companies suggesting opportunities exist only for those willing or brave enough to take a contrarian view. </li>
<li>For 'Peak Growth', the market is calling for a downturn in momentum that has yet to be reflected in quarterly earnings. Where the cycle is more prolonged than expected, there are often opportunities for short-term rebounds in what are normally relatively-inexpensive companies.</li>
<li>The 'Ex-Growth' quadrant often consists of former 'Contrarian Sell's where the market is reluctant to acknowledge that the cycle has turned. This quadrant can also contain 'Turnarounds' - formerly 'Contrarian Buys' where the market is correctly anticipating a change in fortunes.   </li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Finally, we provide tables of the top and bottom five ranked companies in each of our 30 Sectors.</li>
</ul>



Source: Japan Analytics

LARGE CAP RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions announcements covers the Results &amp; Revision Scores for Japan's 785 larger capitalisation companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b.
In the DETAIL section below we look at:- 

The 30 top and bottom-ranked companies by Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom thirty ranked by change in score over the last quarter and provide brief comments on companies and topics of note.
By comparing Results Scores and Forecast/Revision Scores, we sort companies into'Optimists', 'Pessimists', 'Increasingly Optimistic' and 'Increasingly Pessimistic' categories.
As shown above, the relationship between the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) and our Relative Price Score (RPS) for each company and divide the large-cap universe into four 'quadrants' - 'Contrarian Buy' (Low RRS &amp; Low RPS) , 'Contrarian Sell' (High RRS &amp; High RPS), 'Peak Growth' (High RRS &amp; Low RPS) and 'Ex-Growth/Turnaround'  (Low RRS &amp; High RPS), highlighting the outliers in each quadrant.

In the two 'Contrarian' quadrants, the market is aligned with the current earnings momentum of the companies suggesting opportunities exist only for those willing or brave enough to take a contrarian view. 
For 'Peak Growth', the market is calling for a downturn in momentum that has yet to be reflected in quarterly earnings. Where the cycle is more prolonged than expected, there are often opportunities for short-term rebounds in what are normally relatively-inexpensive companies.
The 'Ex-Growth' quadrant often consists of former 'Contrarian Sell's where the market is reluctant to acknowledge that the cycle has turned. This quadrant can also contain 'Turnarounds' - formerly 'Contrarian Buys' where the market is correctly anticipating a change in fortunes.   


Finally, we provide tables of the top and bottom five ranked companies in each of our 30 Sectors.


🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/​Peak & Ex-Growth

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

KOSPI is up 9.4% and Nikkei is up 7.8% YTD. It has been an active first two months of 2019. Many stocks have retraced to the previous resistance levels in November/December 2018. In the past week, the following reports that are relevant for Japan and Korea have received a lot of interest among Smartkarma readers:
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/will-rakuten-get-a-near-term-lyft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28143">Will Rakuten Get A Near-Term Lyft?</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/value-enhancing-5g-spectrum-allocations-on-the-way-for-kddi-docomo-softbank-and-rakuten" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:27994">Value-Enhancing 5G Spectrum Allocations on the Way for KDDI, DoCoMo, Softbank and Rakuten</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aruhi-placement-bigger-than-the-ipo-but-good-track-record-and-price-performance-should-help" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28046">Aruhi Placement - Bigger than the IPO but Good Track Record and Price Performance Should Help</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nintendo-offering-buyback-the-import-the-dynamics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28175">Nintendo Offering &amp; Buyback: The Import &amp; The Dynamics</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/celltrion-healthcare-well-we-were-warned" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28174">Celltrion Healthcare: Well, We Were Warned</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dhico-doosan-heavy-rights-offer-conditions-timetable" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28153">DHICO (Doosan Heavy) Rights Offer: Conditions &amp; Timetable</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-trading-strategy-for-ecoprobm-post-ipo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28096">A Trading Strategy for EcoproBM Post IPO</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/korean-stubs-spotlight-close-the-pair-trade-between-bgf-co-bgf-retail" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28081">Korean Stubs Spotlight: Close the Pair Trade Between BGF Co. &amp; BGF Retail</a></li>
</ul>

KOSPI is up 9.4% and Nikkei is up 7.8% YTD. It has been an active first two months of 2019. Many stocks have retraced to the previous resistance levels in November/December 2018. In the past week, the following reports that are relevant for Japan and Korea have received a lot of interest among Smartkarma readers:


Will Rakuten Get A Near-Term Lyft? 
Value-Enhancing 5G Spectrum Allocations on the Way for KDDI, DoCoMo, Softbank and Rakuten
Aruhi Placement - Bigger than the IPO but Good Track Record and Price Performance Should Help
Nintendo Offering &amp; Buyback: The Import &amp; The Dynamics
Celltrion Healthcare: Well, We Were Warned
DHICO (Doosan Heavy) Rights Offer: Conditions &amp; Timetable
A Trading Strategy for EcoproBM Post IPO
Korean Stubs Spotlight: Close the Pair Trade Between BGF Co. &amp; BGF Retail


Smartkarma’s Week That Was in JP/​​​​​​​KR: Aruhi, Rakuten-Lyft, Ecopro BM, & English Annual Reports

Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

Price Gauge
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KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

Uniqlo Japan’s Most Valuable Retail Brand

Interbrand’s annual valuation of top brands saw growing numbers of Japanese firms in retail and FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) enter its global...

Michael Causton

Loyalty Points In Japan: More Loyalty, More Points and the Conduit to Cashless Payments

Japan has a vast number of competing loyalty programmes and until five years ago Japanese consumers would often have as many as 10 loyalty point...

Michael Causton

KDDI: Key Takeaways from Company Visit Are Mostly Positive

We expect the Q4 18 report in mid-May will be pivotal for sentiment on KDDI Corp (9433 JP) as the results for its current mid-term plan are...

Kirk Boodry

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/Peak & Ex-Growth

LARGE CAP RESULTS & REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

Smartkarma’s Week That Was in JP/KR: Aruhi, Rakuten-Lyft, Ecopro BM, & English Annual Reports

KOSPI is up 9.4% and Nikkei is up 7.8% YTD. It has been an active first two months of 2019. Many stocks have retraced to the previous resistance...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Uniqlo Japan’s Most Valuable Retail Brand

Interbrand’s annual valuation of top brands saw growing numbers of Japanese firms in retail and FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) enter its global...

Michael Causton

Loyalty Points In Japan: More Loyalty, More Points and the Conduit to Cashless Payments

Japan has a vast number of competing loyalty programmes and until five years ago Japanese consumers would often have as many as 10 loyalty point...

Michael Causton

KDDI: Key Takeaways from Company Visit Are Mostly Positive

We expect the Q4 18 report in mid-May will be pivotal for sentiment on KDDI Corp (9433 JP) as the results for its current mid-term plan are...

Kirk Boodry

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/​Peak & Ex-Growth

LARGE CAP RESULTS & REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

Smartkarma’s Week That Was in JP/​​​​​​​KR: Aruhi, Rakuten-Lyft, Ecopro BM, & English Annual Reports

KOSPI is up 9.4% and Nikkei is up 7.8% YTD. It has been an active first two months of 2019. Many stocks have retraced to the previous resistance...

Douglas Kim

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/Peak & Ex-Growth

Smartkarma’s Week That Was in JP/KR: Aruhi, Rakuten-Lyft, Ecopro BM, & English Annual Reports