Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is a misconception that "MediaTek is gaining the Google TPU v7 project entirely in 2024-25F."</li>
<li>Transsion Holding is placing a new order with MediaTek in 4Q23F, which is larger than ~25mn and has the lowest ASP.</li>
<li>Our current view remains bearish on smartphone demand for 2H23F.</li>
</ul>


There is a misconception that "MediaTek is gaining the Google TPU v7 project entirely in 2024-25F."
Transsion Holding is placing a new order with MediaTek in 4Q23F, which is larger than ~25mn and has the lowest ASP.
Our current view remains bearish on smartphone demand for 2H23F.


MediaTek (2454.TT): Gaining Google TPU V7 Project Entirely Could Be a Misconception

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The upcoming demand is expected to reduce in 4Q23F, with the most obvious decline in 40nm and 8" demand.</li>
<li>Wafer ASP is expected to remain relatively stable until 4Q22F, even though revenue is not anticipated to pick up in 1H24F.</li>
<li>We expect the market to reach its lowest point in the first half of 2024F. The most likely scenario indicates a potential recovery around the third quarter of 2024F.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming demand is expected to reduce in 4Q23F, with the most obvious decline in 40nm and 8" demand.
Wafer ASP is expected to remain relatively stable until 4Q22F, even though revenue is not anticipated to pick up in 1H24F.
We expect the market to reach its lowest point in the first half of 2024F. The most likely scenario indicates a potential recovery around the third quarter of 2024F.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Revenue Can Be Downward a Bit in 4Q23F.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC's ADR premium/discount appears to have shown a clear decline in trading range recently, down from the 10% level.</li>
<li>UMC &amp; ASE joined corporate days today in Taipei, which could be supportive of their premiums in the near-term.</li>
<li>We provide spread levels we view as compelling from a risk/reward perspective.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's ADR premium/discount appears to have shown a clear decline in trading range recently, down from the 10% level.
UMC &amp; ASE joined corporate days today in Taipei, which could be supportive of their premiums in the near-term.
We provide spread levels we view as compelling from a risk/reward perspective.


Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread In Clear Downtrend; UMC & ASE Corporate Days Could Support

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 15th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Wiwynn, Alchip Tech, Realtek Semi.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 15th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Wiwynn, Alchip Tech, Realtek Semi.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 15th): Wiwynn, Alchip Tech, Realtek Semi

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>We foresee a potentially higher rebound in the near future, resulting in higher growth rate in 2023F for TSMC.</li>
<li>Due to the ramping up of production for 3nm, the GM is expected to decrease by 2-3%. However, there is an policy to add up at least 2% for TSMC. </li>
<li>The CoWoS is still being closely watched because of NVDA’s demand, and it will take time to get TSMC ready to satisfy the likely demand for CoWoS.</li>
</ul>


We foresee a potentially higher rebound in the near future, resulting in higher growth rate in 2023F for TSMC.
Due to the ramping up of production for 3nm, the GM is expected to decrease by 2-3%. However, there is an policy to add up at least 2% for TSMC. 
The CoWoS is still being closely watched because of NVDA’s demand, and it will take time to get TSMC ready to satisfy the likely demand for CoWoS.


TSMC (2330.TT): A Bit Higher Rebound in 4Q23F

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)

MediaTek (2454.TT): Gaining Google TPU V7 Project Entirely Could Be a Misconception

There is a misconception "MediaTek is gaining the Google TPU v7 project in 2024-25F." Transsion Holding is placing a new order with MediaTek in...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Revenue Can Be Downward a Bit in 4Q23F.

The upcoming demand is expected to drop in 4Q23, with the most significant decline in 40nm and 8" demand. We expect the market to reach its lowest...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread In Clear Downtrend; UMC & ASE Corporate Days Could Support

UMC & ASE joined corporate days today, which could be supportive of their premiums in the near-term. We provide our view on spread ranges for Long...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 15th): Wiwynn, Alchip Tech, Realtek Semi

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Wiwynn, Alchip Tech, Realtek Semi.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TSMC (2330.TT): A Bit Higher Rebound in 4Q23F

We foresee a potentially higher rebound in the near future, resulting in higher growth rate in 2023F for TSMC. The GM is expected to decrease by 2...

Patrick Liao

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