Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)'s </a>outlook for 4Q24 is expected to show a decrease of around -5% QoQ, with a minimum gross margin of 30%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> moving out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> and has opened up opportunities for UMC.  </li>
<li>UMC is considering selling its 8" Fab, known as 8S, due to its consistently poor performance.  </li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)'s outlook for 4Q24 is expected to show a decrease of around -5% QoQ, with a minimum gross margin of 30%.

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) moving out of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) and has opened up opportunities for UMC.  
UMC is considering selling its 8" Fab, known as 8S, due to its consistently poor performance.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Outlook Blurred; QCOM Opens up a New Chance; Considering Selling Fab 8S.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Seven Taiwan semi companies from our list of sixteen are now showing negative YoY monthly growth as of September 2024, up from just three a month earlier</li>
<li>Companies with a strong exposure to the AI Acceleration market are on track for strong revenue growth YoY in 2024. ASPEED is on track to double revenues this year. </li>
<li>For many of the remainder, what tepid growth they had been experiencing may be starting to stall. Watch this space. </li>
</ul>


Seven Taiwan semi companies from our list of sixteen are now showing negative YoY monthly growth as of September 2024, up from just three a month earlier
Companies with a strong exposure to the AI Acceleration market are on track for strong revenue growth YoY in 2024. ASPEED is on track to double revenues this year. 
For many of the remainder, what tepid growth they had been experiencing may be starting to stall. Watch this space. 


Taiwan Semi Monthly Tracker Red Flags Double MoM In September 2024

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>AI demand will remain strong but is plateauing in terms of YoY growth. The rest of end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). TSMC and UMC monthly sales confirm this. </li>
<li>TSMC high growth plateau ~40% YoY: AI (Nvidia Broadcom, AMD), Intel, new smartphone chips. Comps will get harder early 2025. Valuations are high but not extreme: limited upside and downside.</li>
<li>UMC lackluster at ~6% YoY growth, reflecting lackluster end-markets from smartphone, Consumer Elec, PC, Auto &amp; Industrials. Average valuations; in need of an elusive catalyst.</li>
</ul>


AI demand will remain strong but is plateauing in terms of YoY growth. The rest of end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). TSMC and UMC monthly sales confirm this. 
TSMC high growth plateau ~40% YoY: AI (Nvidia Broadcom, AMD), Intel, new smartphone chips. Comps will get harder early 2025. Valuations are high but not extreme: limited upside and downside.
UMC lackluster at ~6% YoY growth, reflecting lackluster end-markets from smartphone, Consumer Elec, PC, Auto &amp; Industrials. Average valuations; in need of an elusive catalyst.


TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +18.6% Premium; Spread Has Returned to Previous Elevated Trading Range</li>
<li>UMC: +1.5% Premium; Wait for Higher Level Before Shorting the Spread</li>
<li>ASE: +4.2% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +18.6% Premium; Spread Has Returned to Previous Elevated Trading Range
UMC: +1.5% Premium; Wait for Higher Level Before Shorting the Spread
ASE: +4.2% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Elevated Range; ASE Short Interest Spikes Higher

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 4th which has an aggregated holding worth USD976.1bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,371mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics, Evergreen Marine Corp Taiwan, Mediatek, Quanta Computer.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 4th which has an aggregated holding worth USD976.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,371mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics, Evergreen Marine Corp Taiwan, Mediatek, Quanta Computer.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 4th): Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Outlook Blurred; QCOM Opens up a New Chance; Considering Selling Fab 8S.

UMC's 4Q24 outlook expects -5% QoQ decrease with 30% gross margin, Qualcomm moving out of SMIC opens opportunities for UMC, considering selling...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Semi Monthly Tracker Red Flags Double MoM In September 2024

Seven Taiwan semi companies from our list of sixteen are now showing negative YoY monthly growth as of September 2024, up from just three a month...

William Keating

TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

AI demand remains strong but YoY growth is plateauing. The rest of Tech end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). Sept. monthly...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Elevated Range; ASE Short Interest Spikes Higher

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 4th): Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Outlook Blurred; QCOM Opens up a New Chance; Considering Selling Fab 8S.

​UMC's 4Q24 outlook expects -5% QoQ decrease with 30% gross margin, Qualcomm moving out of SMIC opens opportunities for UMC, considering selling...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Semi Monthly Tracker Red Flags Double MoM In September 2024

Seven Taiwan semi companies from our list of sixteen are now showing negative YoY monthly growth as of September 2024, up from just three a month...

William Keating

TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

AI demand remains strong but YoY growth is plateauing. The rest of Tech end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). Sept. monthly...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Elevated Range; ASE Short Interest Spikes Higher

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 4th): Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

UMC's 4Q24 outlook expects -5% QoQ decrease with 30% gross margin, Qualcomm moving out of SMIC opens opportunities for UMC, considering selling...