Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Be a hero, just take Evergrande to zero. The scrip isn't worth the paper their written on; </li>
<li>Without an Act of God, the likelihood that Evergrande has enough liquidity and will not have a fire sale of assets is nil; and </li>
<li>Major creditor, China Cinda, be placed in charge creates a massive conflict of interest that no investor or creditor should get comfortable with.   </li>
</ul>


Be a hero, just take Evergrande to zero. The scrip isn't worth the paper their written on; 
Without an Act of God, the likelihood that Evergrande has enough liquidity and will not have a fire sale of assets is nil; and 
Major creditor, China Cinda, be placed in charge creates a massive conflict of interest that no investor or creditor should get comfortable with.   


China Evergrande Group – Just Stop the Nonsense

<ul>
<li>Aggressive foreclosure of Evergrande assets suggests a sea change in how mainland China is handling real estate company defaults – especially with foreign creditors; </li>
<li>Creditor China Cinda’s involvement on the seven-member risk management committee and the appointment of a Cinda senior executive is an alarming conflict of interest; and </li>
<li>4Q21 earnings season will be huge tell for mainland Chinese NPLs which likely peak at 20% of total loans.   </li>
</ul>


Aggressive foreclosure of Evergrande assets suggests a sea change in how mainland China is handling real estate company defaults – especially with foreign creditors; 
Creditor China Cinda’s involvement on the seven-member risk management committee and the appointment of a Cinda senior executive is an alarming conflict of interest; and 
4Q21 earnings season will be huge tell for mainland Chinese NPLs which likely peak at 20% of total loans.   


Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Postal Savings Bank of China C / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The China real estate situation remains challenging for banks credit quality, with more real estate developers in financial difficulties, with them either close to, or at default</li>
<li>The macro-economic picture is challenged by China’s zero-Covid policy hurting supply chains, and PBOC is tightening liquidity despite the recent small cuts to reserve requirements and benchmark rates</li>
<li>Before 4Q21 results, the larger cap banks’ credit quality snapshot shows that China Minsheng is very challenged, with Postal Savings Bank and China Merchants in strong positions</li>
</ul>


The China real estate situation remains challenging for banks credit quality, with more real estate developers in financial difficulties, with them either close to, or at default
The macro-economic picture is challenged by China’s zero-Covid policy hurting supply chains, and PBOC is tightening liquidity despite the recent small cuts to reserve requirements and benchmark rates
Before 4Q21 results, the larger cap banks’ credit quality snapshot shows that China Minsheng is very challenged, with Postal Savings Bank and China Merchants in strong positions


China Banks – Credit Quality Snapshot Ahead of 4Q21

<ul>
<li>Mainland Chinese municipalities and authorities continue to find numerous ways to bone pick the Evergrande carcass without compensation; </li>
<li>Evergrande’s offshore bondholders are now threatening legal enforcement of collateral over the company’s “opaque” debt restructuring process; and </li>
<li>Guangdong province is seeking to segregate Evergrande’s offshore assets in a fire sale to cover what they can of the company’s offshore debt. </li>
</ul>


Mainland Chinese municipalities and authorities continue to find numerous ways to bone pick the Evergrande carcass without compensation; 
Evergrande’s offshore bondholders are now threatening legal enforcement of collateral over the company’s “opaque” debt restructuring process; and 
Guangdong province is seeking to segregate Evergrande’s offshore assets in a fire sale to cover what they can of the company’s offshore debt. 


China Evergrande Group – Vultures Circling

<ul>
<li>Evergrande Is Breaking Down More Rapidly Than Banks Have Kept Up; </li>
<li>Minsheng Has Significant Exposure to Evergrande and Other Problem Developers; and </li>
<li>Minsheng Is Not Insolvent, But It Is Getting There Very Quickly. </li>
</ul>


Evergrande Is Breaking Down More Rapidly Than Banks Have Kept Up; 
Minsheng Has Significant Exposure to Evergrande and Other Problem Developers; and 
Minsheng Is Not Insolvent, But It Is Getting There Very Quickly. 


China Evergrande Group – More Casualties

China

China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. operates in commercial banking businesses. The Bank provides deposit, loan, settlement, discount, financial bond issuance, government bond underwriting and trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related financial services.

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China Minsheng Banking A (600016 CH)

China Evergrande Group – Just Stop the Nonsense

EVERGRANDE: The likelihood that Evergrande has enough liquidity and will not have a fire sale of assets is nil. Major creditor, China Cinda, be...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Evergrande Group – Tug of War

EVERGRANDE: Aggressive foreclosure of assets is a sea change in mainland China. 4Q21 earnings season will be huge tell for mainland Chinese NPLs...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Banks – Credit Quality Snapshot Ahead of 4Q21

Ahead of the first China larger cap banks to report 4Q21 at month-end, our snapshot of 3Q21 NPL metrics outlines the most challenged - China...

Victor Galliano

China Evergrande Group – Vultures Circling

EVERGRANDE: Offshore bondholders are now threatening legal enforcement of collateral over the company’s “opaque” debt restructuring process, with...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Evergrande Group – More Casualties

EVERGRANDE: Evergrande Is breaking down more rapidly. Minsheng has significant exposure to Evergrande and other problem developers. While Minsheng...

Thomas J. Monaco

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