Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Barring some kind of shock-event, US dollar liquidation will drive markets for the near-term, possibly even a few weeks.</li><li>Already elevated EM equities &amp; currencies just got jet fuel injected into their fires. EUR to gun for 1.15, AUD for 78c…</li><li>So tactically one can focus on being right &amp; comfortable while potentially missing on the potential continuation of the near-term trends, or one can focus on making money &amp; get uncomfortable by playing the melt-up</li></ul>

 Barring some kind of shock-event, US dollar liquidation will drive markets for the near-term, possibly even a few weeks.Already elevated EM equities &amp; currencies just got jet fuel injected into their fires. EUR to gun for 1.15, AUD for 78c…So tactically one can focus on being right &amp; comfortable while potentially missing on the potential continuation of the near-term trends, or one can focus on making money &amp; get uncomfortable by playing the melt-up 

Global Macro Take: WK 12. Dollar Melt-Down = EM EQ + EM FX + CMD Melt-Up

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul><li>ISA (individual savings account) could be a pivotal turning point for Korea's brokerage sector and Korean stock market, similar to how the introduction of 401(k) plan has been so important in encouraging equity participation in the US.</li><li>There were 658,040 new ISA accounts that were opened in Korea from March 14th (start of ISA) to 18th with total amount of 320 billion won.</li><li>A major purpose of the ISA is to provide tax breaks to Korean people so that they could reduce their tax burden and invest more for the long term.</li><li>One of the most important developments arising from the ISAs will be the encouragement of longer term equity culture in Korea.</li><li>We highlight a securities focused ETF called KODEX Securities (102970), which includes the major brokers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14560" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14560">Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd.</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/512" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:512">Samsung Securities Co Ltd</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14839" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14839">Korea Investment Holdings Co., Ltd.</a>  For those who want a broad exposure to the securities sector in Korea but want to limit company specific risks, this could be an attractive ETF product. </li></ul>

ISA (individual savings account) could be a pivotal turning point for Korea's brokerage sector and Korean stock market, similar to how the introduction of 401(k) plan has been so important in encouraging equity participation in the US.There were 658,040 new ISA accounts that were opened in Korea from March 14th (start of ISA) to 18th with total amount of 320 billion won.A major purpose of the ISA is to provide tax breaks to Korean people so that they could reduce their tax burden and invest more for the long term.One of the most important developments arising from the ISAs will be the encouragement of longer term equity culture in Korea.We highlight a securities focused ETF called KODEX Securities (102970), which includes the major brokers such as Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. , Samsung Securities Co Ltd , and Korea Investment Holdings Co., Ltd.  For those who want a broad exposure to the securities sector in Korea but want to limit company specific risks, this could be an attractive ETF product. 

ISA - Could Be a Pivotal Turning Point for Korea's Brokerage Sector

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

The ECB delivered a comprehensive set of further policy easing measures.  But it eschewed the concept of a tiered rate policy, in contrast to the BoJ, and suggested that it was unlikely to target further declines in cash rates.  Its policies are more focused on boosting domestic asset prices and domestic bank lending and place less emphasis on a weaker exchange rate policy.  Since the ECB set its course to further ease policy at its 22-October 2015 policy meeting, the market has presumed that it favored lower interest rates.  It has now signaled it has reached bottom on this path, just as the BoJ has diverted its attention to negative interest rates.  As such, we see a case for a recovery in EUR/JPY, potentially retracing the significant fall since October last year.

The ECB delivered a comprehensive set of further policy easing measures.  But it eschewed the concept of a tiered rate policy, in contrast to the BoJ, and suggested that it was unlikely to target further declines in cash rates.  Its policies are more focused on boosting domestic asset prices and domestic bank lending and place less emphasis on a weaker exchange rate policy.  Since the ECB set its course to further ease policy at its 22-October 2015 policy meeting, the market has presumed that it favored lower interest rates.  It has now signaled it has reached bottom on this path, just as the BoJ has diverted its attention to negative interest rates.  As such, we see a case for a recovery in EUR/JPY, potentially retracing the significant fall since October last year.

AmpGFX - ECB and BoJ Policy Easing Paths Diverge

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

Global Macro Strategy

Callum Henderson

* The BoJ shocked the market, cutting rates to negative and threatening further rate cuts if needed* The apparent change in BoJ stance has to be viewed in the wake of the ECB and Fed statements* The BoJ rate cut is a de facto protest of tighter Japanese monetary conditions due to JPY strength* Leveraged funds on the CFTC had the largest long JPY position ahead of this since October 2012* Recent JPY gains are likely to retrace over the next few weeks, notably against AUD, INR and KRW

* The BoJ shocked the market, cutting rates to negative and threatening further rate cuts if needed* The apparent change in BoJ stance has to be viewed in the wake of the ECB and Fed statements* The BoJ rate cut is a de facto protest of tighter Japanese monetary conditions due to JPY strength* Leveraged funds on the CFTC had the largest long JPY position ahead of this since October 2012* Recent JPY gains are likely to retrace over the next few weeks, notably against AUD, INR and KRW

Asia Calling: From Currency Wars to Competitive Monetary Easing

Japan

Resona Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides financial services, including banking, trust operations, and credit card services. Resona Holdings also offers consulting services related to personal loans, asset management, and asset succession.

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Resona Holdings (8308 JP)

Global Macro Take: WK 12. Dollar Melt-Down = EM EQ + EM FX + CMD Melt-Up

Barring some kind of shock-event, US dollar liquidation will drive markets for the near-term, possibly even a few weeks. Already elevated EM...

Kay Van-Petersen

ISA - Could Be a Pivotal Turning Point for Korea's Brokerage Sector

ISA (individual savings account) could be a pivotal turning point for Korea's brokerage sector and Korean stock market, similar to how the...

Douglas Kim

AmpGFX - ECB and BoJ Policy Easing Paths Diverge

The ECB delivered a comprehensive set of further policy easing measures. But it eschewed the concept of a tiered rate policy, in contrast to the...

Greg Gibbs

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence. Bottom...

Greg Gibbs

Asia Calling: From Currency Wars to Competitive Monetary Easing

* The BoJ shocked the market, cutting rates to negative and threatening further rate cuts if needed* The apparent change in BoJ stance has to be...

Callum Henderson

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