Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Dian Swastatika Sentosa / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, 5 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 October.</li>
<li>The largest passive flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dian-swastatika-sentosa-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15281:1" rel="noopener">Dian Swastatika Sentosa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15734:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-syariah-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26981:1" rel="noopener">Bank Syariah Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xlsmart-telecom-sejahtera-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medikaloka-hermina-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27000:1" rel="noopener">Medikaloka Hermina</a>.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, 5 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 October.
The largest passive flows are expected in Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Bank Central Asia, Bank Mandiri, Emtek, Bumi Resources, Bank Syariah Indonesia, XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera and Medikaloka Hermina.
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Plenty of Change with 4 Days to Trade

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CGSI has initiated coverage on Pacific Radiance and Marco Polo Marine, identifying them as beneficiaries of O&amp;M industry.</li>
<li>Brokers' Digest provides latest updates on Bumitama Agri, Oiltek, ST Engineering, SGX, Suntec REIT, Kimly, SingPost, PropNex, Raffles Medical.</li>
<li>Panin Bank acquisition might not have significant impact on OCBC and DBS due to uncertainties, according to RHB. XMH Holdings' 1HFY2025 earnings surge by 94.5% to $12.6 million. Accrelist exec chairman increases stake to 26.48%, while Tuan Sing CEO Liem raises ownership to 54.28%.</li>
</ul>


CGSI has initiated coverage on Pacific Radiance and Marco Polo Marine, identifying them as beneficiaries of O&amp;M industry.
Brokers' Digest provides latest updates on Bumitama Agri, Oiltek, ST Engineering, SGX, Suntec REIT, Kimly, SingPost, PropNex, Raffles Medical.
Panin Bank acquisition might not have significant impact on OCBC and DBS due to uncertainties, according to RHB. XMH Holdings' 1HFY2025 earnings surge by 94.5% to $12.6 million. Accrelist exec chairman increases stake to 26.48%, while Tuan Sing CEO Liem raises ownership to 54.28%.


Singapore Market Roundup (13-Dec-2024): CGSI Covers Pacific Radiance & Marco Polo Marine

Research Analyst

Ilvin Cornelis

I really like these eight banks – <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-tabungan-negara-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:731:1" rel="noopener">Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bpd-jawa-barat-dan-banten-tb" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:134:1" rel="noopener">Bank BJB (BJBR IJ)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-tabungan-negara-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:731:1" rel="noopener"> </a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-danamon-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:135:1" rel="noopener">Bank Danamon Indonesia (BDMN IJ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-pan-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:727:1" rel="noopener">Bank Pan Indonesia (PNBN IJ)</a>, mainly due to their reasonable valuations, coupled with their ability to attract more deposits from customers.
Many of these banks are still trading below, or at least in line, with their historical 3-year average PBRs. Given my expectation of profitability improvements over the next 3 years, their current valuations are still reasonably attractive.

I really like these eight banks – Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ), Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ), Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ),Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ), Bank BJB (BJBR IJ) , Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), Bank Danamon Indonesia (BDMN IJ), and Bank Pan Indonesia (PNBN IJ), mainly due to their reasonable valuations, coupled with their ability to attract more deposits from customers.
Many of these banks are still trading below, or at least in line, with their historical 3-year average PBRs. Given my expectation of profitability improvements over the next 3 years, their current valuations are still reasonably attractive.

Indonesia's Banking Sector: The Eight Bank Stocks to Watch For

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Improved Operating Result: Bank Central Asia (BBCA.IJ) [BCA] reported 1Q21 results of IDR 7.0 tn do not do BCA justice, as core operating results grew IDR 1.5 tn (40.9%) over the same period. BCA’s positive operating results were highlighted by two factors: a) interest income growth of IDR 385 mn (2.8%) due largely to a bit of leverage in the corporate securities portfolio, and b) a tax rate reduction; and*Credit Challenges Persist, But Credit Break Decelerates: By our calculation, we find that 1Q20 net new NPLs amounted to IDR 742 bn for annualized rate of increase of 28.7% - which is quite favorable compared to 4Q20 results of IDR 1.3 tn and 46.5%. Given the surprise deceleration in net new NPL formation, we calculate that loss reserves are likely right where they need to be given the uptick in special mention and lack of full clarity with the restructuring portfolio.

*Improved Operating Result: Bank Central Asia (BBCA.IJ) [BCA] reported 1Q21 results of IDR 7.0 tn do not do BCA justice, as core operating results grew IDR 1.5 tn (40.9%) over the same period. BCA’s positive operating results were highlighted by two factors: a) interest income growth of IDR 385 mn (2.8%) due largely to a bit of leverage in the corporate securities portfolio, and b) a tax rate reduction; and*Credit Challenges Persist, But Credit Break Decelerates: By our calculation, we find that 1Q20 net new NPLs amounted to IDR 742 bn for annualized rate of increase of 28.7% - which is quite favorable compared to 4Q20 results of IDR 1.3 tn and 46.5%. Given the surprise deceleration in net new NPL formation, we calculate that loss reserves are likely right where they need to be given the uptick in special mention and lack of full clarity with the restructuring portfolio.

Bank Central Asia – Light At The End Of The Tunnel

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

*Capital Raise Coming:Without any detail whatsoever, on March 10, 2021, the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises (MOSOE) announced that Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.IJ) [BBNI] will seek a rights offering sometime in 2022; and*Big Dilution Expected Given Awful Credit Metrics:BBNI’s stated capital levels are low by sector comparison at a 16.8% CAR. Net new NPLs have increased 206.0% on an annualized basis – the absolute worst we have witnessed regionally this quarter. We calculate a minimum loss reserve shortfall of IDR 29.7 tn which represents 28% of stated capital – intimating a significant capital is on the horizon.

*Capital Raise Coming:Without any detail whatsoever, on March 10, 2021, the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises (MOSOE) announced that Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.IJ) [BBNI] will seek a rights offering sometime in 2022; and*Big Dilution Expected Given Awful Credit Metrics:BBNI’s stated capital levels are low by sector comparison at a 16.8% CAR. Net new NPLs have increased 206.0% on an annualized basis – the absolute worst we have witnessed regionally this quarter. We calculate a minimum loss reserve shortfall of IDR 29.7 tn which represents 28% of stated capital – intimating a significant capital is on the horizon. 

Bank Negara Indonesia – MOSOE Tosses A Grenade

Indonesia

PT Bank Panin Indonesia Tbk provides commercial banking and foreign exchange services in Indonesia and overseas.

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Bank Pan Indonesia (PNBN IJ)

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Plenty of Change with 4 Days to Trade

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, 5 for the LQ45 Index, and 7 for the IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 October....

Brian Freitas

Singapore Market Roundup (13-Dec-2024): CGSI Covers Pacific Radiance & Marco Polo Marine

CGSI initiates coverage on Pacific Radiance and Marco Polo Marine as beneficiaries of O&M, add calls; Bumitama Agri, Oiltek, ST Engineering, SGX,...

Singapore Market Roundup

Indonesia's Banking Sector: The Eight Bank Stocks to Watch For

These eight banks have reasonable valuations and stand ready to benefit from stronger loan demand and rising interest rates, over the medium term.

Ilvin Cornelis

Bank Central Asia – Light At The End Of The Tunnel

BANK CENTRAL ASIA: BCA's core operating results grew 40.9% QOQ in 1Q21, and were highlighted by interest income growth and lower taxes. Another...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Negara Indonesia – MOSOE Tosses A Grenade

Bank Negara Indonesia: Without any detail the MOSOE announced that BBNI will seek a rights offering in 2022. We calculate a minimum loss reserve...

Thomas J. Monaco

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Plenty of Change with 4 Days to Trade

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, 5 for the LQ45 Index, and 7 for the IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 October....

Brian Freitas

Singapore Market Roundup (13-Dec-2024): CGSI Covers Pacific Radiance & Marco Polo Marine

CGSI initiates coverage on Pacific Radiance and Marco Polo Marine as beneficiaries of O&M, add calls; Bumitama Agri, Oiltek, ST Engineering, SGX,...

Singapore Market Roundup

Indonesia's Banking Sector: The Eight Bank Stocks to Watch For

These eight banks have reasonable valuations and stand ready to benefit from stronger loan demand and rising interest rates, over the medium term.

Ilvin Cornelis

Bank Central Asia – Light At The End Of The Tunnel

BANK CENTRAL ASIA: BCA's core operating results grew 40.9% QOQ in 1Q21, and were highlighted by interest income growth and lower taxes. Another...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Negara Indonesia – MOSOE Tosses A Grenade

Bank Negara Indonesia: Without any detail the MOSOE announced that BBNI will seek a rights offering in 2022. We calculate a minimum loss reserve...

Thomas J. Monaco

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Plenty of Change with 4 Days to Trade