IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> has rejected an unsolicited non-binding privatisation proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle Corp (ALB US)</a> at A$2.50 per share, which is a 63.9% premium to the undisturbed price (27 March).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive in comparison to peer multiples and historical share prices. Liontown suggests that the offer does not appropriately value the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project.</li>
<li>A bump to the Board’s desired A$3.00 offer is justifiable based on the Kathleen Valley NPV sensitivity analysis related to spodumene prices. Albemarle remains willing to engage. </li>
</ul>



Liontown Resources (LTR AU) has rejected an unsolicited non-binding privatisation proposal from Albemarle Corp (ALB US) at A$2.50 per share, which is a 63.9% premium to the undisturbed price (27 March).
The offer is attractive in comparison to peer multiples and historical share prices. Liontown suggests that the offer does not appropriately value the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project.
A bump to the Board’s desired A$3.00 offer is justifiable based on the Kathleen Valley NPV sensitivity analysis related to spodumene prices. Albemarle remains willing to engage. 


Liontown Resources (LTR AU): A Bump to Albermale’s A$2.50 Offer Is Justifiable

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 17th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD42.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Arafura Rare Ear, Aurizon, Suncorp, Beach Energy.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 17th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD42.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Arafura Rare Ear, Aurizon, Suncorp, Beach Energy.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 17th): Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Arafura Rare Ear, Aurizon

<ul>
<li>The IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a> JV’s A$0.50 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essential-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9645:1" rel="noopener">Essential Metals (ESS AU)</a> to be fair and reasonable as it is higher than its A$0.283-0.468 valuation. </li>
<li>Odey, the recent substantial shareholder, hoped for a competing proposal which has not materialised. On 10 March, Odey sold down 21% of its holding at A$0.48 per share.</li>
<li>Barring an unlikely competing proposal, this is done. At the last close price and for the 5 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.1% and 28.4%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The IE considers Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)/IGO Ltd (IGO AU) JV’s A$0.50 offer for Essential Metals (ESS AU) to be fair and reasonable as it is higher than its A$0.283-0.468 valuation. 
Odey, the recent substantial shareholder, hoped for a competing proposal which has not materialised. On 10 March, Odey sold down 21% of its holding at A$0.48 per share.
Barring an unlikely competing proposal, this is done. At the last close price and for the 5 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.1% and 28.4%, respectively.


Essential Metals (ESS AU): Tianqi/​IGO JV Scheme Meeting on 20 April

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 10th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD40.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We estimate the total short interest changes of -1.9% WoW and highlight short interest changes in BHP.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 10th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD40.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We estimate the total short interest changes of -1.9% WoW and highlight short interest changes in BHP.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 10th): BHP

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harvey-norman-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:645:1" rel="noopener">Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU)</a> will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close of trading on 17 March.</li>
<li>One way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$68m. Only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harvey-norman-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:645:1" rel="noopener">Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU)</a> has more than 1 day of ADV to sell from passive trackers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harvey-norman-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:645:1" rel="noopener">Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU)</a> has underperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/myer-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:577:1" rel="noopener">Myer Holdings (MYR AU)</a> significantly over the recent past and the index deletion could provide an entry point into a trade.</li>
</ul>



Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close of trading on 17 March.
One way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$68m. Only Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU) has more than 1 day of ADV to sell from passive trackers.

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU) has underperformed Myer Holdings (MYR AU) significantly over the recent past and the index deletion could provide an entry point into a trade.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

Australia

Pilbara Minerals Ltd. is a mineral exploration company. The Company owns mineral tenements in the west Pilbara region of Western Australia where it explores for iron ore, gold and base metals, particularly copper and nickel.

Price Gauge
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Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)

Liontown Resources (LTR AU): A Bump to Albermale’s A$2.50 Offer Is Justifiable

A bump to the Board’s desired A$3.00 offer is justifiable based on the Kathleen Valley NPV sensitivity analysis related to spodumene prices....

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 17th): Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Arafura Rare Ear, Aurizon

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Arafura Rare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Essential Metals (ESS AU): Tianqi/IGO JV Scheme Meeting on 20 April

Barring an unlikely competing proposal, this is done. At the last close price and for the 5 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.1%...

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 10th): BHP

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week (as of March 10th). We highlight the short interest changes in BHP.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

Harvey Norman will be deleted from the MVMVW Index at the close on 17 March. One way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$68m. The...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Liontown Resources (LTR AU): A Bump to Albermale’s A$2.50 Offer Is Justifiable

A bump to the Board’s desired A$3.00 offer is justifiable based on the Kathleen Valley NPV sensitivity analysis related to spodumene prices....

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 17th): Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Arafura Rare Ear, Aurizon

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Arafura Rare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Essential Metals (ESS AU): Tianqi/​IGO JV Scheme Meeting on 20 April

Barring an unlikely competing proposal, this is done. At the last close price and for the 5 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.1%...

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 10th): BHP

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week (as of March 10th). We highlight the short interest changes in BHP.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

Harvey Norman will be deleted from the MVMVW Index at the close on 17 March. One way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$68m. The...

Brian Freitas

Essential Metals (ESS AU): Tianqi/IGO JV Scheme Meeting on 20 April