Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Verizon Communications / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The highly exuberant equity markets in 2021 created the perfect environment for high quality value stocks in the coming years.</li>
<li>Significant investments made by Verizon are also weighing down on the company's valuation, while the dividend yield gravitates around 5%.</li>
<li>Through these investments, the company solidified its leading position and created a significant edge over its peers in the U.S.</li>
</ul>


The highly exuberant equity markets in 2021 created the perfect environment for high quality value stocks in the coming years.
Significant investments made by Verizon are also weighing down on the company's valuation, while the dividend yield gravitates around 5%.
Through these investments, the company solidified its leading position and created a significant edge over its peers in the U.S.


Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The companies that are best positioned to take advantage of the 5G growth are a mix of equipment vendors, chipset companies, device makers, and enterprise solution providers. </li>
<li>The top ten companies to benefit from 5G rollout based on innovation and citation count are <strong>Samsung Electronics, Qualcomm, LG Electronics, AT&amp;T, Huawei, Intel, Google, Ericsson, Apple,</strong> and <strong>Nokia </strong>
</li>
<li>A stand-out in 5G technology rankings is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8814:1" rel="noopener">LG Electronics (066570 KS)</a> which is punching well above its current market share in the industry. </li>
</ul>


The companies that are best positioned to take advantage of the 5G growth are a mix of equipment vendors, chipset companies, device makers, and enterprise solution providers. 
The top ten companies to benefit from 5G rollout based on innovation and citation count are Samsung Electronics, Qualcomm, LG Electronics, AT&amp;T, Huawei, Intel, Google, Ericsson, Apple, and Nokia 

A stand-out in 5G technology rankings is LG Electronics (066570 KS) which is punching well above its current market share in the industry. 


Stock Ideas from Data Mining Technical Publications: A Look at 5G

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<div><p>We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that appears now set to breakeven on FCF in 2021. Over the course of the past year we have gone from being short Netflix to long Netflix beginning this past summer, which has played out...and now we return to the sidelines (but not interested in reshorting Netflix), as we think to get more bullish on Netflix from here requires greater clarity on future revenue optionality around gaming and consumer products. The increasingly saturated streaming space means Netflix will only be growing subs ~10% for the forseeable future, with most of that growth from lower priced regions, while it will be investing with a vengeance to drive more content, likely capping expectations for continued margin expansion and FCF.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </p></div></div></div>

We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that appears now set to breakeven on FCF in 2021. Over the course of the past year we have gone from being short Netflix to long Netflix beginning this past summer, which has played out...and now we return to the sidelines (but not interested in reshorting Netflix), as we think to get more bullish on Netflix from here requires greater clarity on future revenue optionality around gaming and consumer products. The increasingly saturated streaming space means Netflix will only be growing subs ~10% for the forseeable future, with most of that growth from lower priced regions, while it will be investing with a vengeance to drive more content, likely capping expectations for continued margin expansion and FCF.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

<p>Comcast and Charter have had big pullbacks in the past month, leading to an attractive setup into earnings with valuations having compressed significantly over transitory weakness in broadband due to tough COVID comps and overstated competitive concerns. We'd be buyers of both. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Comcast and Charter have had big pullbacks in the past month, leading to an attractive setup into earnings with valuations having compressed significantly over transitory weakness in broadband due to tough COVID comps and overstated competitive concerns. We'd be buyers of both. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.</p><p>UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.</p><p>Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.</p><p>Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.</p><p>German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21713:1" rel="noopener">Siemens AG (SIE GR)</a> were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.</p><p>Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.</p>

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). Sony Corp (6758 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR) and Siemens AG (SIE GR) were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Global Fund Positioning Update:  Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

United States

AT&T Inc. is a communications holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries and affiliates, provides local and long-distance phone service, wireless and data communications, Internet access and messaging, IP-based and satellite television, security services, telecommunications equipment, and directory advertising and publishing.

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AT&T (T US)

Verizon: It's Darkest Before The Dawn

The highly exuberant equity markets in 2021 created the perfect environment for high quality value stocks in the coming years. Significant...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Stock Ideas from Data Mining Technical Publications: A Look at 5G

5G connectivity is expected to spawn new business and services across sectors. We review the technological positioning of companies competing in...

Pyari Menon

Netflix 3Q21: Saved By Squid Game

Over the course of the past year we have gone from being short Netflix to long Netflix...and now we return to the sidelines. We need greater...

Aaron Gabin

US Cable: Good Entry Point

Comcast and Charter have had big pullbacks in the past month, leading to an attractive setup with valuations having compressed due to tough COVID...

Aaron Gabin

Global Fund Positioning Update: Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

A detailed look at investor positioning among 380 active Global strategies, covering the major themes in country, sector and stock exposure.

Steven Holden

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