FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

Little changed to support the rebound in EUR and weakness in the USD on Thursday.&nbsp; In fact dovish ECB comments and on-message statements from senior Fed members suggest the policy divergence is likely to intensify next month.&nbsp; Eurozone industrial production showed a flat trend in recent quarters and US labour data were firm.&nbsp; Eurozone GDP and US retail sales today in focus. A comparison of CAD and AUD reveal much in common, we see downside pressure persisting for both.&nbsp; Weaker oil prices an immediate threat for CAD.&nbsp; Bank of Canada speech tonight in focus.&nbsp; Australian RBA minutes and wage data next week pose downside risk for the AUD.

Little changed to support the rebound in EUR and weakness in the USD on Thursday.&nbsp; In fact dovish ECB comments and on-message statements from senior Fed members suggest the policy divergence is likely to intensify next month.&nbsp; Eurozone industrial production showed a flat trend in recent quarters and US labour data were firm.&nbsp; Eurozone GDP and US retail sales today in focus. A comparison of CAD and AUD reveal much in common, we see downside pressure persisting for both.&nbsp; Weaker oil prices an immediate threat for CAD.&nbsp; Bank of Canada speech tonight in focus.&nbsp; Australian RBA minutes and wage data next week pose downside risk for the AUD.

The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity demand in China and weak energy prices are dragging harder from below; best to stay on the side-lines for now.&nbsp; Oil prices appear to be responding to concerns over too much supply.&nbsp; The ECB has said low oil prices are a contributing factor to its assessment that more policy easing may be required. We stick to our weaker EUR view, as other major CBs are more prepared to look through the dis-inflation risk.

The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity demand in China and weak energy prices are dragging harder from below; best to stay on the side-lines for now.&nbsp; Oil prices appear to be responding to concerns over too much supply.&nbsp; The ECB has said low oil prices are a contributing factor to its assessment that more policy easing may be required. We stick to our weaker EUR view, as other major CBs are more prepared to look through the dis-inflation risk.

AmpGFX - AUD pulled harder in opposite directions

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

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Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Event-Driven

<ul><li>Beach Energy and Drill Search Energy Limited, or Drillsearch, have proposed a merger via scheme of arrangement, valuing Drillsearch at AUD 384 million, a 27% premium to its last closing price.</li><li>Beach will issue five shares for every four Drillsearch shares, increasing shares on issue by 44% and leaving Drillsearch shareholders with 30% of the combined group.</li><li>The transaction requires Drillsearch shareholder approval, including at the scheme meeting in late January. If a sought ASX waiver is not forthcoming, Beach shareholders may also need to vote, in which case we'd advise approval.</li><li>Simplistically, the transaction looks better for Drillsearch, with pro forma fiscal 2015 numbers indicating that Beach will receive 33%-37% increases in revenue, operating cash flow, production, proven and probable reserves and production; that for a 44% increase in shares on issue.</li><li>Drillsearch comes with modest net debt to Beach's modest net cash, so the sound balance sheet will remain</li></ul>Analyst: Mark Taylor

Beach Energy and Drill Search Energy Limited, or Drillsearch, have proposed a merger via scheme of arrangement, valuing Drillsearch at AUD 384 million, a 27% premium to its last closing price.Beach will issue five shares for every four Drillsearch shares, increasing shares on issue by 44% and leaving Drillsearch shareholders with 30% of the combined group.The transaction requires Drillsearch shareholder approval, including at the scheme meeting in late January. If a sought ASX waiver is not forthcoming, Beach shareholders may also need to vote, in which case we'd advise approval.Simplistically, the transaction looks better for Drillsearch, with pro forma fiscal 2015 numbers indicating that Beach will receive 33%-37% increases in revenue, operating cash flow, production, proven and probable reserves and production; that for a 44% increase in shares on issue.Drillsearch comes with modest net debt to Beach's modest net cash, so the sound balance sheet will remainAnalyst: Mark Taylor

Beach to Cement Its Place as Australia's Largest Onshore Oil Producer via Drillsearch Merger

Australia

Beach Energy Limited explores for, develops, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company holds interests in exploration and production tenements in Australia, USA, Egypt, Tanzania and Papua New Guinea.

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Beach Energy (BPT AU)

AmpGFX - CAD and AUD in the hot-seat

Little changed to support the rebound in EUR and weakness in the USD on Thursday. In fact dovish ECB comments and on-message statements from...

Greg Gibbs

AmpGFX - AUD pulled harder in opposite directions

The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity...

Greg Gibbs

Beach to Cement Its Place as Australia's Largest Onshore Oil Producer via Drillsearch Merger

Beach Energy and Drill Search Energy Limited, or Drillsearch, have proposed a merger via scheme of arrangement, valuing Drillsearch at AUD 384...

Morningstar, Inc.

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