Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Global base oils prices recover versus feedstock/competing fuel prices after crude prices fall.</li><li>Firmer base oils price-differentials curb pressure on refiners to adjust output in response to squeezed margins.</li><li>Firmer margins, and easing pressure to adjust output, coincide with prospect of easing supply-demand fundamentals in coming weeks.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices recover versus feedstock/competing fuel prices after crude prices fall.Firmer base oils price-differentials curb pressure on refiners to adjust output in response to squeezed margins.Firmer margins, and easing pressure to adjust output, coincide with prospect of easing supply-demand fundamentals in coming weeks.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 30 June

<ul><li>Global Group II heavy-grade base oils prices stay at elevated levels relative to feedstock and competing fuel prices.</li><li>Group II heavy-grade prices maintain steep premium to Group I heavy-neutrals prices in Asia and especially in Europe.</li><li>Group II heavy-grade price-strength extends to markets like India, even with recent strength in Group I prices in that market.</li></ul>

Global Group II heavy-grade base oils prices stay at elevated levels relative to feedstock and competing fuel prices.Group II heavy-grade prices maintain steep premium to Group I heavy-neutrals prices in Asia and especially in Europe.Group II heavy-grade price-strength extends to markets like India, even with recent strength in Group I prices in that market.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 30 June

<ul><li>US Group II base oils price-premium to VGO rebounds after fall in crude oil prices.</li><li>Excluding brief dip in June 2025, base oils margins hold in narrow range since early April 2025.</li><li>US Group II domestic and export base oils price-premium to VGO rises in Q2 2025 from Q1 2025.</li></ul>

US Group II base oils price-premium to VGO rebounds after fall in crude oil prices.Excluding brief dip in June 2025, base oils margins hold in narrow range since early April 2025.US Group II domestic and export base oils price-premium to VGO rises in Q2 2025 from Q1 2025.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June

<ul><li>US base oils demand could stay cautious amid signs of sufficient supplies to cover domestic requirements.</li><li>Expectations of sufficient supply and seasonal slowdown in demand give buyers more leverage to hold back in face of recent volatility of crude oil prices and base oils margins.</li><li>Buyers face challenge of balancing prospect of slowdown in demand in Q3 2025 with risk of weather-related supply disruptions.</li></ul>

US base oils demand could stay cautious amid signs of sufficient supplies to cover domestic requirements.Expectations of sufficient supply and seasonal slowdown in demand give buyers more leverage to hold back in face of recent volatility of crude oil prices and base oils margins.Buyers face challenge of balancing prospect of slowdown in demand in Q3 2025 with risk of weather-related supply disruptions.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Active UK funds continue to reduce their exposure to the Energy sector, with positioning falling to near record lows. </li>
<li>The UK Energy sector is dominated by just two names— Shell and BP  —which together account for 90% of the total sector allocation.</li>
<li>UK Industrials, Financials, and Consumer sectors have become increasingly dominant, with Energy’s diminished role reflecting a shift in market structure and a redefinition of what drives UK equity portfolios.</li>
</ul>


Active UK funds continue to reduce their exposure to the Energy sector, with positioning falling to near record lows. 
The UK Energy sector is dominated by just two names— Shell and BP  —which together account for 90% of the total sector allocation.
UK Industrials, Financials, and Consumer sectors have become increasingly dominant, with Energy’s diminished role reflecting a shift in market structure and a redefinition of what drives UK equity portfolios.


UK Energy:  Concentrated, Under-Owned, and Out of Focus

France

TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. TOTAL operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

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TotalEnergies (TTE FP)

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 30 June

Global base oils prices recover versus feedstock/competing fuel prices after crude prices fall. Firmer base oils price-differentials curb pressure...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 30 June

Global Group II heavy-grade base oils prices stay at elevated levels relative to feedstock and competing fuel prices. Group II heavy-grade prices...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June

US Group II base oils price-premium to VGO rebounds after fall in crude oil prices. Excluding brief dip in June 2025, base oils margins hold in...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June

US base oils demand could stay cautious amid signs of sufficient supplies to cover domestic requirements. Expectations of sufficient supply and...

Base Oil News

UK Energy: Concentrated, Under-Owned, and Out of Focus

Active UK equity funds continue to reduce their exposure to the Energy sector, with positioning falling to near record lows.

Steven Holden

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