Emerging Market Economist, Emerginomics

Tatiana Orlova

Emerging Market Economist

Emerginomics

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>This Geopolitical Comment comes out only two weeks after the previous issue. We feel compelled to provide our commentary on the breakdown of US-China trade talks, which have provoked a strong market reaction, and other important geopolitical events that have occurred in the 1<sup>st</sup> half of May. We think that the probability of the US and China returning to the negotiating table and arriving at a viable trade agreement is vanishing. Our base scenario is that the trade war will carry on and will cause a further downward adjustment in the global stock indices. Further renminbi weakening may also be on the cards.</strong></p>
</div>


This Geopolitical Comment comes out only two weeks after the previous issue. We feel compelled to provide our commentary on the breakdown of US-China trade talks, which have provoked a strong market reaction, and other important geopolitical events that have occurred in the 1st half of May. We think that the probability of the US and China returning to the negotiating table and arriving at a viable trade agreement is vanishing. Our base scenario is that the trade war will carry on and will cause a further downward adjustment in the global stock indices. Further renminbi weakening may also be on the cards.


Geopolitical Comment: Trade War Between US and China Escalates After Breakdown in Talks

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p>On Wednesday, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) decided to oppose the proposed TPG/VHA merger in a botched press release, a day earlier than expected. On the back of the announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/323" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:323:1">TPG Telecom Ltd (TPM AU)</a> shares declined 13.5%, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14151" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14151:1">Hutchison Telecomm (Aust) (HTA AU)</a> (50% owner of VHA) shares declined 28.1%.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>We <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tpg-telecom-vha-merger-a-high-stakes-gamble-to-abandon-mobile-network-rollout" target="_blank">had previously cautioned</a> that the ACCC could call TPG’s bluff to cancel its network rollout plans and block the merger. We believe that TPG’s current share price provides limited upside should the Federal Court provide a favourable ruling. On the other hand, there is material downside risk should the ACCC’s decision be upheld by the Court. Consequently, the risk-reward is skewed towards the downside.</p></div>

On Wednesday, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) decided to oppose the proposed TPG/VHA merger in a botched press release, a day earlier than expected. On the back of the announcement, TPG Telecom Ltd (TPM AU) shares declined 13.5%, and Hutchison Telecomm (Aust) (HTA AU) (50% owner of VHA) shares declined 28.1%.We had previously cautioned that the ACCC could call TPG’s bluff to cancel its network rollout plans and block the merger. We believe that TPG’s current share price provides limited upside should the Federal Court provide a favourable ruling. On the other hand, there is material downside risk should the ACCC’s decision be upheld by the Court. Consequently, the risk-reward is skewed towards the downside.

TPG Telecom/VHA Merger: ACCC Calls TPG’s Bluff

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

<h2><strong>Executive summary</strong></h2>
<p>We launch our inaugural joint policy research on China’s Greater Bay Area (GBA) with the assistance from Joy Rich Securities Investment’s Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area Academic Research Group. Here we highlight what comprises GBA, timeline, comparison against major economies and other bay areas, deep-dive research into key industries and policies toward each part of GBA. China is a Policy-induced story and GBA is in the Chinese government’s interest to prosper.</p>
<p>We believe the composition of 9 cities and 2 special administrative regions, together with policy support by the Chinese government provides a backdrop for rising credit growth backed by productivity. We will continue to monitor credits which either are based in GBA or will benefit from the GBA scheme (EXHIBIT 9). </p>

Executive summary
We launch our inaugural joint policy research on China’s Greater Bay Area (GBA) with the assistance from Joy Rich Securities Investment’s Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area Academic Research Group. Here we highlight what comprises GBA, timeline, comparison against major economies and other bay areas, deep-dive research into key industries and policies toward each part of GBA. China is a Policy-induced story and GBA is in the Chinese government’s interest to prosper.
We believe the composition of 9 cities and 2 special administrative regions, together with policy support by the Chinese government provides a backdrop for rising credit growth backed by productivity. We will continue to monitor credits which either are based in GBA or will benefit from the GBA scheme (EXHIBIT 9). 

China’s Greater Bay Area: The Essential

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this report, we provide an update on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8814" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8814:1">Lg Electronics (066570 KS)</a>, including the potential impact of the war on Huawei on the company, dividend policy, debt issue, sales of non-core assets, and the launch of new smartphones. </li>
<li>Although LG's V50 ThinQ product is a bit disappointing, another new LG smartphone called <strong>G8ThinQ </strong>appears to be promising.<strong> </strong>This is one of the first smartphones to use<strong> "air motion"</strong> technology to activate some of the features including playing a song or video or adjusting volume (remember Tom Cruise in the movie <em>Minority Report</em>)? The airmotion technology could bring back the "thrill" of using a smartphone. </li>
<li>
<strong>Many investors around the world are asking, "What companies will benefit from the continued war on Huawei by the US government?" </strong>LG Electronics, the 7th largest smartphone maker globally, could be one of the key beneficiaries of the war on Huawei. </li>
<li>LG Electronics recently announced that it will pay DPS of 750 won for its common shareholders in 2018, which is nearly twice as high the DPS of 400 won in 2017. </li>
</ul>


In this report, we provide an update on Lg Electronics (066570 KS), including the potential impact of the war on Huawei on the company, dividend policy, debt issue, sales of non-core assets, and the launch of new smartphones. 
Although LG's V50 ThinQ product is a bit disappointing, another new LG smartphone called G8ThinQ appears to be promising. This is one of the first smartphones to use "air motion" technology to activate some of the features including playing a song or video or adjusting volume (remember Tom Cruise in the movie Minority Report)? The airmotion technology could bring back the "thrill" of using a smartphone. 

Many investors around the world are asking, "What companies will benefit from the continued war on Huawei by the US government?" LG Electronics, the 7th largest smartphone maker globally, could be one of the key beneficiaries of the war on Huawei. 
LG Electronics recently announced that it will pay DPS of 750 won for its common shareholders in 2018, which is nearly twice as high the DPS of 400 won in 2017. 


LG Electronics - Boost from Higher Dividends, Air Motion Technology, & The War Against Huawei

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers</li>
<li>Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually be</li>
<li>Thermal and metallurgical coal exports affected</li>
<li>Impacting ~A$8.4Bn of metallurgical coal exports; or 4.4% of national income</li>
<li>Thermal coal exports affected worth ~A$3.8Bn; or an additional 2% of national income</li>
<li>Collectively, thermal and metallurgical exports equate to ~0.9% of Australian annual GDP </li>
<li>Actions appear to be a response to blocking Huawei bidding for the 5G network</li>
<li>Recent Chinese cyber-attacks harden Australian Government's resolve</li>
<li>Expect similar Chinese measures (in time) to be applied to other commodities and industries</li>
</ul>


China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers
Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually be
Thermal and metallurgical coal exports affected
Impacting ~A$8.4Bn of metallurgical coal exports; or 4.4% of national income
Thermal coal exports affected worth ~A$3.8Bn; or an additional 2% of national income
Collectively, thermal and metallurgical exports equate to ~0.9% of Australian annual GDP 
Actions appear to be a response to blocking Huawei bidding for the 5G network
Recent Chinese cyber-attacks harden Australian Government's resolve
Expect similar Chinese measures (in time) to be applied to other commodities and industries


Confluence of Politics - China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)

China

Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. provides networking products and telecommunication solutions. The Company researches and develops internet access, transmission network, servers, storage, security, and other networking products. Huawei Technologies also offers business consulting, network integration, assurance, managed, learning, and global delivery services.

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Huawei Technology (40978Z CH)

Geopolitical Comment: Trade War Between US and China Escalates After Breakdown in Talks

This Geopolitical Comment comes out only two weeks after the previous issue. We feel compelled to provide our commentary on the breakdown of...

Tatiana Orlova

TPG Telecom/VHA Merger: ACCC Calls TPG’s Bluff

On Wednesday, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) decided to oppose the proposed TPG/VHA merger in a botched press release, a...

Arun George

China’s Greater Bay Area: The Essential

Executive summary We launch our inaugural joint policy research on China’s Greater Bay Area (GBA) with the assistance from Joy Rich Securities...

Bondcritic

LG Electronics - Boost from Higher Dividends, Air Motion Technology, & The War Against Huawei

In this report, we provide an update on Lg Electronics (066570 KS), including the potential impact of the war on Huawei on the company, dividend...

Douglas Kim

Confluence of Politics - China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)

China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually...

Boost Research

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