External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>An early rate cut may ease liquidity pressure faster, while some loans and marketable securities are at risk of lower yield. </li><li>Banking sector share prices have a high negative correlation with USD/IDR, which could put the sector under selling pressure once again.</li><li>Share price rally provides a window to neutralize position amid our concern on asset quality. We maintain our Neutral rating.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

An early rate cut may ease liquidity pressure faster, while some loans and marketable securities are at risk of lower yield. Banking sector share prices have a high negative correlation with USD/IDR, which could put the sector under selling pressure once again.Share price rally provides a window to neutralize position amid our concern on asset quality. We maintain our Neutral rating.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Liquidity May Ease Faster, but Stable Rupiah Is Needed for the Rally to Sustain (NEUTRAL)

<ul><li>We expect a moderate earnings growth of 5.8% in FY25F (from 6.7% in FY24F) due to slower loan growth, still tight liquidity, and higher CoC.</li><li>In our view, the biggest risk is higher delinquency as liquidity remains tight, and we expect MSME quality to remain at risk.</li><li>We lowered the sector’s rating to Neutral amid our cautious FY25F outlook, with BBCA remaining as our top pick.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect a moderate earnings growth of 5.8% in FY25F (from 6.7% in FY24F) due to slower loan growth, still tight liquidity, and higher CoC.In our view, the biggest risk is higher delinquency as liquidity remains tight, and we expect MSME quality to remain at risk.We lowered the sector’s rating to Neutral amid our cautious FY25F outlook, with BBCA remaining as our top pick.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: FY25 Outlook: Less money to lend, save, and repay (NEUTRAL)

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>JCI rose 3.8% wow, partly driven by foreign funds inflows particularly into INDF, ASII BREN, UNTR, and GOTO, which more than offset the persisting outflows from the big banks (i.e., BBRI, BBNI and to a lesser extent BBCA and BMRI).</li><li>These resulted in net inflow of US$67mn.</li><li>Within EM, India saw a big inflow of US$3bn during the week, while ASEAN EM peers still faced outflows albeit easing from prior weeks. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JCI rose 3.8% wow, partly driven by foreign funds inflows particularly into INDF, ASII BREN, UNTR, and GOTO, which more than offset the persisting outflows from the big banks (i.e., BBRI, BBNI and to a lesser extent BBCA and BMRI).These resulted in net inflow of US$67mn.Within EM, India saw a big inflow of US$3bn during the week, while ASEAN EM peers still faced outflows albeit easing from prior weeks. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the week – Nov24-end Domestic Fund Sector Positioning

<ul><li>PMK 88/2024 could add liquidity for the SOE banks, but with a CoF of c. 4.8%, we do not see it as plausible for the banks currently.</li><li>On the other hand, the SAL loans can add competition as other nonbank SOE could get a lower rate from SAL compared to bank loans.</li><li>BMRI and BBNI could be the biggest losers from SAL competition, while BBRI and BBTN could see potential benefits.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PMK 88/2024 could add liquidity for the SOE banks, but with a CoF of c. 4.8%, we do not see it as plausible for the banks currently.On the other hand, the SAL loans can add competition as other nonbank SOE could get a lower rate from SAL compared to bank loans.BMRI and BBNI could be the biggest losers from SAL competition, while BBRI and BBTN could see potential benefits.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Expansion of SAL utilization: for better or worse? (OVERWEIGHT)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BBNI booked IDR5.6tn of net profit in 3Q24 (+4.7% QoQ), bringing 9M24 NPAT to IDR16.3tn (+3.5% YoY), came at 76%/74% of ours/cons estimates-mostly inline.</li><li>Net interest income fell by -5.5% YoY to IDR29tn in 9M24. Non-interest income increased by +15.1% YoY to IDR16.8tn in 9M24.</li><li>Opex increased by +7% YoY to IDR21tn and CIR was up by +260bps to 43.8%.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBNI booked IDR5.6tn of net profit in 3Q24 (+4.7% QoQ), bringing 9M24 NPAT to IDR16.3tn (+3.5% YoY), came at 76%/74% of ours/cons estimates-mostly inline.Net interest income fell by -5.5% YoY to IDR29tn in 9M24. Non-interest income increased by +15.1% YoY to IDR16.8tn in 9M24.Opex increased by +7% YoY to IDR21tn and CIR was up by +260bps to 43.8%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBNI IJ - NIM & CoC Boost Profits, Asset Quality Remains Steady

Indonesia

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is a state-owned bank that conducts commercial and consumer banking services.

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Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)

Banks: Liquidity May Ease Faster, but Stable Rupiah Is Needed for the Rally to Sustain (NEUTRAL)

An early rate cut may ease liquidity pressure faster, while some loans and marketable securities are at risk of lower yield.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: FY25 Outlook: Less money to lend, save, and repay (NEUTRAL)

We expect a moderate earnings growth of 5.8% in FY25F (from 6.7% in FY24F) due to slower loan growth, still tight liquidity, and higher CoC.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the week – Nov24-end Domestic Fund Sector Positioning

JCI rose 3.8% wow, partly driven by foreign funds inflows particularly into INDF, ASII BREN, UNTR, and GOTO, which more than offset the persisting...

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: Expansion of SAL utilization: for better or worse? (OVERWEIGHT)

PMK 88/2024 could add liquidity for the SOE banks, but with a CoF of c. 4.8%, we do not see it as plausible for the banks currently.

BRI Danareksa Research

BBNI IJ - NIM & CoC Boost Profits, Asset Quality Remains Steady

BBNI booked IDR5.6tn of net profit in 3Q24 (+4.7% QoQ), bringing 9M24 NPAT to IDR16.3tn (+3.5% YoY), came at 76%/74% of ours/cons estimates-mostly...

MNC Sekuritas

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