IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan is susceptible to a bump if there is enough vocal opposition from minorities. </li>
<li>In July, two public pieces have sharply criticised the offer – the <a href="https://www.acga-asia.org/blog-detail.php?id=102" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Asian Corporate Governance Association (ACGA)</a> on 2 July and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5c99c107-58a4-4434-b1b3-d6be44cf849e" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sloane Robinson Investment Management</a> on 8 July.</li>
<li>Some of the criticism has merit, while others do not. Nevertheless, these letters are the first and right step to agitate for terms that are closer to TICO's intrinsic value.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan is susceptible to a bump if there is enough vocal opposition from minorities. 
In July, two public pieces have sharply criticised the offer – the Asian Corporate Governance Association (ACGA) on 2 July and Sloane Robinson Investment Management on 8 July.
Some of the criticism has merit, while others do not. Nevertheless, these letters are the first and right step to agitate for terms that are closer to TICO's intrinsic value.


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

<ul>
<li>Several investors have sharply criticised <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan. Oasis is pushing for a higher offer. </li>
<li>The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities' interests. The key grievance is that it is below TICO’s intrinsic value.</li>
<li>Due to TICO’s varied business units, SoTP valuation is the most appropriate methodology. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.</li>
</ul>


Several investors have sharply criticised Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan. Oasis is pushing for a higher offer. 
The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities' interests. The key grievance is that it is below TICO’s intrinsic value.
Due to TICO’s varied business units, SoTP valuation is the most appropriate methodology. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logisnext-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)</a> shares rose 26% after the Nikkei reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13613:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)</a> is contemplating selling its 64.5% stake. </li>
<li>Logisnext confirmed the sale process. In a fair process, minorities should receive the tender offer price plus the proportionate share of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ TOB tax benefits. </li>
<li>Despite the rise in share price, Logisnext trades at a discount to peer multiples. At an offer of JPY2,000, Logisnext would trade in line with median peer multiples.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) shares rose 26% after the Nikkei reported that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) is contemplating selling its 64.5% stake. 
Logisnext confirmed the sale process. In a fair process, minorities should receive the tender offer price plus the proportionate share of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ TOB tax benefits. 
Despite the rise in share price, Logisnext trades at a discount to peer multiples. At an offer of JPY2,000, Logisnext would trade in line with median peer multiples.


Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) Seeks to Exit

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Sentiment for AI related rising with NVDA de-risked and outlook strong, despite the marginal beat.</li>
<li>Kioxia IPO pricing at $4.84bn supportive for memory ecosystem names.</li>
<li>Deere numbers and outlook for farming lifting AG machinery names - watch Kubota.</li>
</ul>


Sentiment for AI related rising with NVDA de-risked and outlook strong, despite the marginal beat.
Kioxia IPO pricing at $4.84bn supportive for memory ecosystem names.
Deere numbers and outlook for farming lifting AG machinery names - watch Kubota.


Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On for the AI Ecosystem

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Our overall assessment of the new reorganization plan by the Doosan Group continues to be Negative, because Doosan has not given up trying to eventually merge Bobcat and Robotics.</li>
<li>Doosan Group's new reorganization plan is the opposite of KISS strategy, involving several moving parts and complicated deal structure.</li>
<li>We have also provided three main recommendations on how to raise the valuation of Doosan Bobcat without rushing to merge Bobcat and Robotics.</li>
</ul>


Our overall assessment of the new reorganization plan by the Doosan Group continues to be Negative, because Doosan has not given up trying to eventually merge Bobcat and Robotics.
Doosan Group's new reorganization plan is the opposite of KISS strategy, involving several moving parts and complicated deal structure.
We have also provided three main recommendations on how to raise the valuation of Doosan Bobcat without rushing to merge Bobcat and Robotics.


New Reorganization Plan Increases Overhang Risk for Doosan Bobcat

Japan

KOMATSU LTD. manufactures and sells construction and mining machinery, including excavators, bulldozers, and wheel loaders.  The Company, operating on a global scale, also produces forklift trucks and engineering equipment such as press system.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP)

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

The onus is now on minorities to publicly advocate for better terms or scuttle the tender offer. Two recent letters are the first and right step to...

Arun George

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value

The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities' interests. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.

Arun George

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) Seeks to Exit

Despite the rise in share price, Logisnext trades at a discount to peer multiples. At an offer of JPY2,000, Logisnext would trade in line with...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On for the AI Ecosystem

AI sentiment rising with NVDA de-risked, Kioxia IPO positive for memory ecosystem names, Deere's positive outlook lifts AG machinery names like...

Andrew Jackson

New Reorganization Plan Increases Overhang Risk for Doosan Bobcat

Doosan Group's new reorganization plan is the opposite of KISS strategy, involving several moving parts and complicated deal structure.

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

The onus is now on minorities to publicly advocate for better terms or scuttle the tender offer. Two recent letters are the first and right step to...

Arun George

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value

The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities' interests. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.

Arun George

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) Seeks to Exit

Despite the rise in share price, Logisnext trades at a discount to peer multiples. At an offer of JPY2,000, Logisnext would trade in line with...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On for the AI Ecosystem

​AI sentiment rising with NVDA de-risked, Kioxia IPO positive for memory ecosystem names, Deere's positive outlook lifts AG machinery names like...

Andrew Jackson

New Reorganization Plan Increases Overhang Risk for Doosan Bobcat

Doosan Group's new reorganization plan is the opposite of KISS strategy, involving several moving parts and complicated deal structure.

Douglas Kim

AI sentiment rising with NVDA de-risked, Kioxia IPO positive for memory ecosystem names, Deere's positive outlook lifts AG machinery names like...