Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After distributing over 450m of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> shares to its shareholders late last year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> took a short break from the downsizing of its public investments.</li>
<li>Downsizing seems to have restarted with yesterday’s announcement of the distribution of more than 950m <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> shares to Tencent shareholders.</li>
<li>Having already met Tencent’s soft self-sustainability criteria, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> could be lined up as Tencent’s next portfolio downsizing targets.</li>
</ul>


After distributing over 450m of JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) shares to its shareholders late last year, Tencent (700 HK) took a short break from the downsizing of its public investments.
Downsizing seems to have restarted with yesterday’s announcement of the distribution of more than 950m Meituan (3690 HK) shares to Tencent shareholders.
Having already met Tencent’s soft self-sustainability criteria, Pinduoduo (PDD US) and Sea Ltd (SE US) could be lined up as Tencent’s next portfolio downsizing targets.


Sea & Pinduoduo Are in Dangerous Territory With Tencent in Disposal Mode

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> shares were up 36% yesterday following a relatively small top-line beat of 4.8% and a narrower-than-expected operating loss of $495.6m (consensus: $581.9) through rigorous cost-cutting.</li>
<li>The share price move sets-up nicely to make gains on the short-side, as e-commerce and fintech remain unprofitable after cutting-down necessary expenses such as logistics and senior management cash compensation.</li>
<li>We estimate the fair value of Sea Ltd at around $10.0bn EV compared to the current EV of $33.1bn, which implies a downside of 66% to Sea’s post-3Q22 price.</li>
</ul>



Sea Ltd (SE US) shares were up 36% yesterday following a relatively small top-line beat of 4.8% and a narrower-than-expected operating loss of $495.6m (consensus: $581.9) through rigorous cost-cutting.
The share price move sets-up nicely to make gains on the short-side, as e-commerce and fintech remain unprofitable after cutting-down necessary expenses such as logistics and senior management cash compensation.
We estimate the fair value of Sea Ltd at around $10.0bn EV compared to the current EV of $33.1bn, which implies a downside of 66% to Sea’s post-3Q22 price.


Sea Ltd 3Q22 Results - Set up Nicely To Make Big Gains On The Short Side

<ul>
<li>The last leg of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)'</a>s original bull thesis is about to break with Shopee’s revenue expected to start declining from 3Q22 onwards.</li>
<li>However, a lower-than-expected operating loss, driven by cost-cutting could get the bulls excited for a short while following the 3Q22 results due later this week.</li>
<li>With the business remaining unprofitable after cost-cutting, we think 3Q22 results could be another opportunity to profit on the short-side as the FV of Sea could be around $10bn EV.</li>
</ul>


The last leg of Sea Ltd (SE US)'s original bull thesis is about to break with Shopee’s revenue expected to start declining from 3Q22 onwards.
However, a lower-than-expected operating loss, driven by cost-cutting could get the bulls excited for a short while following the 3Q22 results due later this week.
With the business remaining unprofitable after cost-cutting, we think 3Q22 results could be another opportunity to profit on the short-side as the FV of Sea could be around $10bn EV.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Nov 2021, Nykaa raised around US$720m in its India IPO, via mostly selling secondary shares.</li>
<li>Nykaa is a lifestyle focussed e-commerce platform and consumer brand offering a portfolio of beauty, personal care and fashion products, including its own branded products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.</li>
</ul>


In Nov 2021, Nykaa raised around US$720m in its India IPO, via mostly selling secondary shares.
Nykaa is a lifestyle focussed e-commerce platform and consumer brand offering a portfolio of beauty, personal care and fashion products, including its own branded products.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.


FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa) Lockup Expiry - US$2.5bn Unlock with a Very Scattered Shareholding

Equity Capital Markets

Global Digital Niaga Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>PT Global Digital (BliBli) raised around US$517m in its Indonesian IPO, after using the upsize option and pricing its deal just below the top-end.</li>
<li>BliBli provides e-commerce services across Indonesia to both retail consumers and institutions.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


PT Global Digital (BliBli) raised around US$517m in its Indonesian IPO, after using the upsize option and pricing its deal just below the top-end.
BliBli provides e-commerce services across Indonesia to both retail consumers and institutions.
In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


BliBli IPO Trading - Upsized, Priced near Top-End but Should Be Trading at Least 50% Lower

Singapore

Sea Limited offers information technology services. The Company provides online personal computer and mobile digital content, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Sea serves customers worldwide.

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Sea Ltd (SE US)

Sea & Pinduoduo Are in Dangerous Territory With Tencent in Disposal Mode

Having already met Tencent’s soft self-sustainability criteria, Pinduoduo and Sea Ltd could be lined up as Tencent’s next portfolio downsizing...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Sea Ltd 3Q22 Results - Set up Nicely To Make Big Gains On The Short Side

We think shares are set up nicely to make gains on the short-side as e-commerce and fintech remain unprofitable after cutting down necessary...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Sea Ltd: Another Sell-Off?

With e-commerce and fintech remaining unprofitable after cost-cutting, we think 3Q22 results could be another opportunity to make profits on the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa) Lockup Expiry - US$2.5bn Unlock with a Very Scattered Shareholding

In Nov 2021, Nykaa raised around US$720m in its India IPO, via mostly selling secondary shares. Stock worth US$2.5bn will soon come free from the...

Sumeet Singh

BliBli IPO Trading - Upsized, Priced near Top-End but Should Be Trading at Least 50% Lower

PT Global Digital (BliBli) raised around US$517m in its Indonesian IPO, after using the upsize option and pricing its deal just below the top-end....

Sumeet Singh

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