Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Gold’s latest surge shows rising implied volatility but little sign of market stress, suggesting limited parallels with the explosive 1980 bull market.</li>
<li>Tuesday’s correction was the largest selloff in 12 years and marked the end of a series of successively larger positive moves.   </li>
<li>Rising implied vols and strong Call demand reveal active trading but not the manic levels typically seen near a major blowoff.</li>
</ul>


Gold’s latest surge shows rising implied volatility but little sign of market stress, suggesting limited parallels with the explosive 1980 bull market.
Tuesday’s correction was the largest selloff in 12 years and marked the end of a series of successively larger positive moves.   
Rising implied vols and strong Call demand reveal active trading but not the manic levels typically seen near a major blowoff.


Gold Part 2: Implied Volatility Dynamics Offer Insight into the Tone of This Bull Market

<ul>
<li>Gold’s rally shows signs of overextension but the volatility footprint differs from prior rallies.</li>
<li>We exam major bull markets over the past 50 years to assess how the current move stacks up.</li>
<li>Fund flows and the sources of buying pressure are analyzed to gauge the rally’s sustainability.</li>
</ul>


Gold’s rally shows signs of overextension but the volatility footprint differs from prior rallies.
We exam major bull markets over the past 50 years to assess how the current move stacks up.
Fund flows and the sources of buying pressure are analyzed to gauge the rally’s sustainability.


Gold: Reviewing Five Decades of Bull Markets Against an Overextended Backdrop

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?</li>
<li>Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on</li>
<li>We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25</li>
</ul>


How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?
Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on
We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25


Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

<ul>
<li>Gold's current low-volatility phase, following its ascent to all-time highs, presents a strategic vol trading opportunity. This environment is characterized by steady gains and reduced expected downside.</li>
<li>Recent market trends, including investor and institutional support levels, suggest that strategies designed to profit from time decay could be beneficial, noting the stability of physical flows, contained intraday volatility.</li>
<li>While a short-term trading regime focused on range consolidation is indicated, potential risks from geopolitical shifts or unexpected central bank communications could quickly reprice gold's volatility. </li>
</ul>


Gold's current low-volatility phase, following its ascent to all-time highs, presents a strategic vol trading opportunity. This environment is characterized by steady gains and reduced expected downside.
Recent market trends, including investor and institutional support levels, suggest that strategies designed to profit from time decay could be beneficial, noting the stability of physical flows, contained intraday volatility.
While a short-term trading regime focused on range consolidation is indicated, potential risks from geopolitical shifts or unexpected central bank communications could quickly reprice gold's volatility. 


Harnessing Calm Waters: A Volatility Strategy for Gold's Quiet Ascent

<ul>
<li>Market Structure Signals Stability: Gold futures have remained range-bound near technical resistance, with intraday volatility compressing—suggesting a market more likely to drift than break.</li>
<li>ETF and Vault Flows Show Steady Demand: Sustained inflows into the SPDR Gold Trust and consistent London vault holdings point to underlying investor interest, even without aggressive price action.</li>
<li>Positioning Data Reveals Divergence: Commercial hedgers are easing short exposure while speculative players show mixed sentiment, hinting at a market caught between caution and latent bullishness.</li>
</ul>


Market Structure Signals Stability: Gold futures have remained range-bound near technical resistance, with intraday volatility compressing—suggesting a market more likely to drift than break.
ETF and Vault Flows Show Steady Demand: Sustained inflows into the SPDR Gold Trust and consistent London vault holdings point to underlying investor interest, even without aggressive price action.
Positioning Data Reveals Divergence: Commercial hedgers are easing short exposure while speculative players show mixed sentiment, hinting at a market caught between caution and latent bullishness.


Gold Moves to the Beat of a Different Drum: Vaults, Flows, and Futures

United States

SPDR Gold Shares is an investment fund incorporated in the USA.  The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses. The Trust holds gold and is expected from time to time to issue Baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and to distribute gold in connection with redemptions of Baskets.

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SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)

Gold Part 2: Implied Volatility Dynamics Offer Insight into the Tone of This Bull Market

Gold's recent surge shows increased implied volatility without signs of market stress, indicating limited similarities to the 1980 bull market.

John Ley

Gold: Reviewing Five Decades of Bull Markets Against an Overextended Backdrop

Gold’s powerful run invites comparison to previous bull markets. We examine fifty years of history to determine whether this strength is...

John Ley

Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes

A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Rikki Malik

Harnessing Calm Waters: A Volatility Strategy for Gold's Quiet Ascent

Updates on this Fed: US GDP in 2H adjusted to 3.8% from 3.3% reflecting stronger consumer confidence and reflecting that imports are lower; imports...

Jay Cameron

Gold Moves to the Beat of a Different Drum: Vaults, Flows, and Futures

Gold market stability signals potential for profits selling volatility under drifting prices as demand remains steady despite mixed sentiment...

Jay Cameron

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Gold Part 2: Implied Volatility Dynamics Offer Insight into the Tone of This Bull Market

​Gold's recent surge shows increased implied volatility without signs of market stress, indicating limited similarities to the 1980 bull market.

John Ley

Gold: Reviewing Five Decades of Bull Markets Against an Overextended Backdrop

Gold’s powerful run invites comparison to previous bull markets. We examine fifty years of history to determine whether this strength is...

John Ley

Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes

​A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Rikki Malik

Harnessing Calm Waters: A Volatility Strategy for Gold's Quiet Ascent

Updates on this Fed: US GDP in 2H adjusted to 3.8% from 3.3% reflecting stronger consumer confidence and reflecting that imports are lower; imports...

Jay Cameron

Gold Moves to the Beat of a Different Drum: Vaults, Flows, and Futures

​Gold market stability signals potential for profits selling volatility under drifting prices as demand remains steady despite mixed sentiment...

Jay Cameron

Gold's recent surge shows increased implied volatility without signs of market stress, indicating limited similarities to the 1980 bull market.

A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Gold market stability signals potential for profits selling volatility under drifting prices as demand remains steady despite mixed sentiment...