Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> declared strong Q1FY25 results with revenues/profits up 20%/14% YoY. Net margins declined by 100 bps YoY to 17% due to the discounting of volumes ex-Alfonso. </li>
<li>Currently in the final stages of acquiring Booze Online Inc., the company intends to finalize the transaction by the end of Q2, contingent upon the resolution of regulatory approvals.</li>
<li>
The company trades at 10.5x FY25e, net cash, and an ROCE exceeding 20%. Supported by multiple growth levers, this presents an attractive opportunity within the Philippine domestic consumer discretionary sector.</li>
</ul>



The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) declared strong Q1FY25 results with revenues/profits up 20%/14% YoY. Net margins declined by 100 bps YoY to 17% due to the discounting of volumes ex-Alfonso. 
Currently in the final stages of acquiring Booze Online Inc., the company intends to finalize the transaction by the end of Q2, contingent upon the resolution of regulatory approvals.

The company trades at 10.5x FY25e, net cash, and an ROCE exceeding 20%. Supported by multiple growth levers, this presents an attractive opportunity within the Philippine domestic consumer discretionary sector.


Keepers Q1 2025 Concall Highlights: 20% Revenue Growth, Venture Into Beer, Retail

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a>  reported Q4 2024 revenues/profits of 11.8%/23.5% YoY. Based on current trends, they provided a  outlook for FY25.</li>
<li>For FY24, the company reported 13.6%/21.3% YoY revenue/profit growth, led by a 14% YoY expansion in volumes. The company declared a 0.12 peso/share dividend (~4.7% dividend yield).</li>
<li>Trading at 10.6x FY24 PE, net cash, &gt;20% ROE, and a 4.7%  dividend yield based on a 50% payout is a structural play on the premiumization of alcohol consumption.</li>
</ul>



The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)  reported Q4 2024 revenues/profits of 11.8%/23.5% YoY. Based on current trends, they provided a  outlook for FY25.
For FY24, the company reported 13.6%/21.3% YoY revenue/profit growth, led by a 14% YoY expansion in volumes. The company declared a 0.12 peso/share dividend (~4.7% dividend yield).
Trading at 10.6x FY24 PE, net cash, &gt;20% ROE, and a 4.7%  dividend yield based on a 50% payout is a structural play on the premiumization of alcohol consumption.


Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) Concall Highlights: Solid Q4 2024, Growth Unabated In FY25

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

China Resources Beer Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A liquid proxy for China's recovering consumption (with no technology regulation risk)</li>
<li>A quality red chip company at a very reasonable valuation</li>
<li>Growing sales and margins as its premiumisation strategy is executed</li>
</ul>


A liquid proxy for China's recovering consumption (with no technology regulation risk)
A quality red chip company at a very reasonable valuation
Growing sales and margins as its premiumisation strategy is executed


Cheers! Raise a Glass to China Resources Beer (0291.HK)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a> has seen investors run for the hills over the last year. The halving of the stock price could mean deletion from passive portfolios.</li>
<li>Other Hong Kong listed brewers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a> have been beaten down too and have underperformed their Asian peers.</li>
<li>The deletion from passive portfolios could provide a buying opportunity in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a> at the end of February (or earlier if the stock drops due to positioning).</li>
</ul>



Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK) has seen investors run for the hills over the last year. The halving of the stock price could mean deletion from passive portfolios.
Other Hong Kong listed brewers, China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) and Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) have been beaten down too and have underperformed their Asian peers.
The deletion from passive portfolios could provide a buying opportunity in Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK) at the end of February (or earlier if the stock drops due to positioning).


Bud APAC (1876 HK): Nursing a Hangover; Now Comes a Passive Overhang

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> delivered a softer 3QFY25, with volume growth decelerating to 4% from ~22% in 1HFY25. Demand was impacted by calamities (earthquakes, typhoons) affecting on-premise consumption. </li>
<li>Q4 began with a strong October rebound, as Halloween nearly doubled sales. While it's early in the quarter, management remains bullish about the demand trajectory for the upcoming celebratory season.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/marcos-vows-jail-time-suspects-philippines-graft-scandal-2025-11-13/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent graft scandal investigations</a> and weak demand-related pullback have brought the stock to an attractive 8.7x PE for FY25e, with ROCEs &gt;20%, a div yield &gt;5% and net cash.</li>
</ul>



The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) delivered a softer 3QFY25, with volume growth decelerating to 4% from ~22% in 1HFY25. Demand was impacted by calamities (earthquakes, typhoons) affecting on-premise consumption. 
Q4 began with a strong October rebound, as Halloween nearly doubled sales. While it's early in the quarter, management remains bullish about the demand trajectory for the upcoming celebratory season.
The recent graft scandal investigations and weak demand-related pullback have brought the stock to an attractive 8.7x PE for FY25e, with ROCEs &gt;20%, a div yield &gt;5% and net cash.


Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) Q3FY25 Conference Call: Big Seasonal Q4 Jump On The Cards

United States

Anheuser-Busch InBev NV brews beer.  The Company manufactures ale, lager, stout, and bitter beer.  Anheuser-Busch InBev owns brands that are both nationally and internationally prominent.  The Company has production plants in Europe, the Americas, and Asia.

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Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD US)

Keepers Q1 2025 Concall Highlights: 20% Revenue Growth, Venture Into Beer, Retail

We summarize the Q1 FY25 concall for Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM). Trading at 10.5x FY25e PE, net cash, >20% ROCE, and a 4.8% div yield, this is an...

Sameer Taneja

Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) Concall Highlights: Solid Q4 2024, Growth Unabated In FY25

We highlight Keepers Holdings' FY24 results and conference call. Trading at 10.6x PE with a 4.7% yield, >20% ROEs, and double-digit growth, it's a...

Sameer Taneja

Cheers! Raise a Glass to China Resources Beer (0291.HK)

A quality Chinese red chip company at a reasonable valuation, growing sales and margins due to its premium strategy. A play on recovering Chinese...

Rikki Malik

Bud APAC (1876 HK): Nursing a Hangover; Now Comes a Passive Overhang

Bud APAC is up since the Insight was published and is near the upper end of the downward sloping channel. With Hong Kong closed Monday and Tuesday...

Brian Freitas

Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) Q3FY25 Conference Call: Big Seasonal Q4 Jump On The Cards

We summarize the PSE webinar highlights of Q3 FY25 for Keepers (KEEPR PM). Trading at 8.7x with 15% CAGR growth, >20% ROCEs, net cash, and >5%...

Sameer Taneja

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