Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Medicine is changing. For hundreds of years, the key drivers of progress were biology and chemistry. Now they are data science and software.Big Medicine and Big Pharma are being gradually undermined by swelling networks of connected biosensors, ubiquitous mobile devices and cloud-based healthcare apps. Collectively, we group these phenomena under the umbrella term, “The Internet of Medical Things”.Five broad technology categories are set to transform the $8 trillion global healthcare industry over the next two years: genomics, mobile health, health IT systems, robotics and virtual reality.These five technologies will dramatically change the balance of power in the “Healthcare” value chain, but it may take a few years to get there.In this report, we look at the main technology categories where disruption of the healthcare sector will be at its greatest over the next two years and identify which parts of the value chain investors should focus on. The five key technology categories are genomics (a branch of biotech), mobile health, health IT systems, robotics and virtual reality.

Medicine is changing. For hundreds of years, the key drivers of progress were biology and chemistry. Now they are data science and software.Big Medicine and Big Pharma are being gradually undermined by swelling networks of connected biosensors, ubiquitous mobile devices and cloud-based healthcare apps. Collectively, we group these phenomena under the umbrella term, “The Internet of Medical Things”.Five broad technology categories are set to transform the $8 trillion global healthcare industry over the next two years: genomics, mobile health, health IT systems, robotics and virtual reality.These five technologies will dramatically change the balance of power in the “Healthcare” value chain, but it may take a few years to get there.In this report, we look at the main technology categories where disruption of the healthcare sector will be at its greatest over the next two years and identify which parts of the value chain investors should focus on. The five key technology categories are genomics (a branch of biotech), mobile health, health IT systems, robotics and virtual reality.

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul><li>The proliferation of IoT: With over 25% 5-year CAGR for IoT devices shipment and wafer foundry market but a very fragmented vendors list, we identify legacy foundry, 4G/5G fabless, and legacy OSAT vendors can be benefited the most on this IoT theme. A big cloud data analysis will benefit memory and datacenter vendors. </li><li>Low power wireless connection needed: The IoT device will mostly use a low-power wireless connection like 3G / 4G / 5G, WiFi HaLow, LoRaWAN, Narrow-band IoT, ZigBee, Z-wave, Thread, and Bluetooth smart with a cost less than US$2 per wireless chip and a less data transfer rate of 250kbps.  </li><li>Lots sensors needed: The global sensor market is forecast to grow from $80bn in 2014 to $116bn by 2019. IoT sensors require lower power consumption, smaller in size, and lighter in weight than traditional sensors.</li><li>IoT everywhere: The IoT data analysis will help to boost productivity for applications like smart industrial production, home, hospital, transportation, agriculture, weather /air/water pollution monitoring, security, national defense, infrastructure, logistics, banking insurance, oil, mining, and food production. </li><li>Consolidation or partnership is needed: We believe each IoT application will require relevant hardware, software, and semiconductor vendors to collaborate through cross-industry consolidation or partnership. An example was Qualcomm recently announced the purchase of NXP for US$37.9bn. </li></ul>

The proliferation of IoT: With over 25% 5-year CAGR for IoT devices shipment and wafer foundry market but a very fragmented vendors list, we identify legacy foundry, 4G/5G fabless, and legacy OSAT vendors can be benefited the most on this IoT theme. A big cloud data analysis will benefit memory and datacenter vendors. Low power wireless connection needed: The IoT device will mostly use a low-power wireless connection like 3G / 4G / 5G, WiFi HaLow, LoRaWAN, Narrow-band IoT, ZigBee, Z-wave, Thread, and Bluetooth smart with a cost less than US$2 per wireless chip and a less data transfer rate of 250kbps.  Lots sensors needed: The global sensor market is forecast to grow from $80bn in 2014 to $116bn by 2019. IoT sensors require lower power consumption, smaller in size, and lighter in weight than traditional sensors.IoT everywhere: The IoT data analysis will help to boost productivity for applications like smart industrial production, home, hospital, transportation, agriculture, weather /air/water pollution monitoring, security, national defense, infrastructure, logistics, banking insurance, oil, mining, and food production. Consolidation or partnership is needed: We believe each IoT application will require relevant hardware, software, and semiconductor vendors to collaborate through cross-industry consolidation or partnership. An example was Qualcomm recently announced the purchase of NXP for US$37.9bn. 

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

President-elect Donald Trump's impact on most companies' intrinsic value is expected to be immaterial, even with a Republican-controlled Congress. However, some industries will be fundamentally impacted. Determining the policies that Trump will prioritize and handicapping the probability of implementation is an inexact science. Regardless, utilizing his 100-day action plan “Contract with the American Voter” along with our own industry-based knowledge of implementation opportunities and challenges, we're able to peg some likely outcomes. Relevant implications include renegotiation or withdrawal from  NAFTA and TPP, removal of two million undocumented immigrants, a cut in the corporate tax rate, higher infrastructure spending, repeal of the Affordable Care Act, and increased military spending. After layering in our own analysis on probable outcomes, our initial forecast is that the defense, steel, and drug industries stand to benefit the most (relative to a Clinton victory) while companies exposed to trade with Mexico and changing immigration patterns are unlikely to emerge unscathed.<ul><li>Under a Trump administration we envision the Department of Defense budget moving above $650 billion in the government fiscal year 2019 request (compared with the Obama administration's $582.7 billion request for 2017). </li><li>The steel industry represents a possible beneficiary of Trump's lofty infrastructure spending plans. However, after a sharp post-election rally, steel stocks now discount overly optimistic nonresidential construction spending expectations.</li><li>The threat of price cuts for drug companies like Allergan is lower than it would be under a Clinton administration. </li><li>Companies with exposure to cross-border trade with Mexico and its currency face the most threat.</li></ul>Analyst: Elizabeth Collins, CFA

President-elect Donald Trump's impact on most companies' intrinsic value is expected to be immaterial, even with a Republican-controlled Congress. However, some industries will be fundamentally impacted. Determining the policies that Trump will prioritize and handicapping the probability of implementation is an inexact science. Regardless, utilizing his 100-day action plan “Contract with the American Voter” along with our own industry-based knowledge of implementation opportunities and challenges, we're able to peg some likely outcomes. Relevant implications include renegotiation or withdrawal from  NAFTA and TPP, removal of two million undocumented immigrants, a cut in the corporate tax rate, higher infrastructure spending, repeal of the Affordable Care Act, and increased military spending. After layering in our own analysis on probable outcomes, our initial forecast is that the defense, steel, and drug industries stand to benefit the most (relative to a Clinton victory) while companies exposed to trade with Mexico and changing immigration patterns are unlikely to emerge unscathed.Under a Trump administration we envision the Department of Defense budget moving above $650 billion in the government fiscal year 2019 request (compared with the Obama administration's $582.7 billion request for 2017). The steel industry represents a possible beneficiary of Trump's lofty infrastructure spending plans. However, after a sharp post-election rally, steel stocks now discount overly optimistic nonresidential construction spending expectations.The threat of price cuts for drug companies like Allergan is lower than it would be under a Clinton administration. Companies with exposure to cross-border trade with Mexico and its currency face the most threat.Analyst: Elizabeth Collins, CFA

Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist, Vasuda Capital Management

Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA

Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist

Vasuda Capital Management

Summary: These include: Short U.S. treasury bonds, short emerging markets (but long Russia equity index), long U.S. dollar and short Euro. Apart from the usual long U.S. infrastructure ETF/companies, earlier discussed, long pharma/biotech trades (XBI ETF rallied 20% last week), and long U.S. financials in a post-Trump era, we provide few other actionable ideas.  <div class="content-highlight">Short Treasury Bonds: Short TLT (iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond ETF)</div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/016/228/original/TLT.gif?1478994729" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="16228"></figure>Fundamentals: U.S. treasury yields are rocketing, leading to a…

Summary: These include: Short U.S. treasury bonds, short emerging markets (but long Russia equity index), long U.S. dollar and short Euro. Apart from the usual long U.S. infrastructure ETF/companies, earlier discussed, long pharma/biotech trades (XBI ETF rallied 20% last week), and long U.S. financials in a post-Trump era, we provide few other actionable ideas.  Short Treasury Bonds: Short TLT (iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond ETF)Fundamentals: U.S. treasury yields are rocketing, leading to a…

Five More Actionable Ideas in a Post-Trump World

Among one of his first initiatives, U.S. President-elect Trump posted a preliminary plan to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on his transition team website, greatagain.gov. According to a post on this website: <blockquote>It is clear to any objective observer that the ACA, which has resulted in rapidly rising premiums and deductibles, narrow networks, and health insurance, has not been a success.</blockquote>According to this post, the Trump administration plans to do the following:<blockquote><ul><li>Work with Congress to allow…</li></ul></blockquote>

Among one of his first initiatives, U.S. President-elect Trump posted a preliminary plan to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on his transition team website, greatagain.gov. According to a post on this website: It is clear to any objective observer that the ACA, which has resulted in rapidly rising premiums and deductibles, narrow networks, and health insurance, has not been a success.According to this post, the Trump administration plans to do the following:Work with Congress to allow…

Just In: Trump's Preliminary Plan to Repeal the Affordable Care Act

United States

Allergan plc manufactures specialty pharmaceuticals. The Company develops, manufactures and distributes generic, brand and over-the-counter products. Allergan offers its pharmaceutical drugs around the world.

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