Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Looking ahead to the third quarter, we estimate that TSMC’s revenue in U.S. dollars could grow by approximately 5–10% quarter-over-quarter.</li>
<li>Buoyed by the AI boom and the recent increase in U.S. semiconductor investment tax credits to 35%, TSMC will achieve its full-year target of 25% growth in U.S. dollar revenue.</li>
<li>In the second half of the year, as multiple brands launch flagship smartphone chips, TSMC’s N3P process is fully prepared for volume production.</li>
</ul>


Looking ahead to the third quarter, we estimate that TSMC’s revenue in U.S. dollars could grow by approximately 5–10% quarter-over-quarter.
Buoyed by the AI boom and the recent increase in U.S. semiconductor investment tax credits to 35%, TSMC will achieve its full-year target of 25% growth in U.S. dollar revenue.
In the second half of the year, as multiple brands launch flagship smartphone chips, TSMC’s N3P process is fully prepared for volume production.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 3Q25 Outlook Suggests Modest Growth, but FX Could Pose a Headwind.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Power GaN coming oversupply, an illustration. The fear is a repeat of the SiC situation (large capacity built in China, Wolfspeed filling for bankruptcy protection) </li>
<li>Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm. Samsung and Intel have the same problem: yields are too low to attract customers.  </li>
<li>Chinese GPU are coming – or IPO are coming? Moore Threads and MetaX approved to list in Shanghai. Tiny revenues, lots of R&amp;D. Biren Technology expected to file in HK.</li>
</ul>


Power GaN coming oversupply, an illustration. The fear is a repeat of the SiC situation (large capacity built in China, Wolfspeed filling for bankruptcy protection) 
Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm. Samsung and Intel have the same problem: yields are too low to attract customers.  
Chinese GPU are coming – or IPO are coming? Moore Threads and MetaX approved to list in Shanghai. Tiny revenues, lots of R&amp;D. Biren Technology expected to file in HK.


Semi News: Power GaN, Samsung and Intel’s Foundry Margins (And Wafer Price), Chinese GPU IPO

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Samsung Said to Have Give Up Chasing TSMC at the Leading Edge of Chip Manufacturing</li>
<li>Xiaomi’s Tesla-Killer YU7 EV Surges in Orders -- TSMC Rides the Wave as Core Chip Supplier</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC's 2nm Market? We Think It's Too Early to Say (II)</li>
</ul>


Samsung Said to Have Give Up Chasing TSMC at the Leading Edge of Chip Manufacturing
Xiaomi’s Tesla-Killer YU7 EV Surges in Orders -- TSMC Rides the Wave as Core Chip Supplier
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC's 2nm Market? We Think It's Too Early to Say (II)


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Has Samsung Given Up Chasing TSMC?; Xiaomi Tesla-Killer EV Using Key TSMC Chips

<ul>
<li>Lisuan new GPU is a first step, but performance far behind AMD/Nvidia. Loongson new server CPU looks good, close to Intel chip of 2021. Major bottleneck remains SMIC 7nm capacity.</li>
<li>Qualcomm looks close to qualifying Samsung’s 2nm to manufacture Snapdragon 8 Elite 2. This would imply a major yield breakthru for Samsung.</li>
<li>Microsoft ARM CPU Maia is in production, but its AI accelerator Braga seems delayed significantly – either performance or an architecture rethink.</li>
</ul>


Lisuan new GPU is a first step, but performance far behind AMD/Nvidia. Loongson new server CPU looks good, close to Intel chip of 2021. Major bottleneck remains SMIC 7nm capacity.
Qualcomm looks close to qualifying Samsung’s 2nm to manufacture Snapdragon 8 Elite 2. This would imply a major yield breakthru for Samsung.
Microsoft ARM CPU Maia is in production, but its AI accelerator Braga seems delayed significantly – either performance or an architecture rethink.


Chips News: GPU, CPU in China. Qualcomm Going to Samsung Maybe, Microsoft Accelerator Delayed.

<ul>
<li>
1Q25 Smartphone Chipset Market Share Data -- Shows Growth Outperformance for Mediatek</li>
<li>
Nvidia Partnership Helping Mediatek Break Into PCs and Handheld Gaming Devices -- High End Graphics Performance for Small Form Factors</li>
<li>
Smartphones Expected to Rapidly Switch to Advanced Node Chipsets by 2026 -- This Plays to Mediatek's TSMC Advantage</li>
</ul>



1Q25 Smartphone Chipset Market Share Data -- Shows Growth Outperformance for Mediatek

Nvidia Partnership Helping Mediatek Break Into PCs and Handheld Gaming Devices -- High End Graphics Performance for Small Form Factors

Smartphones Expected to Rapidly Switch to Advanced Node Chipsets by 2026 -- This Plays to Mediatek's TSMC Advantage


Mediatek Rising in Smartphones and Beyond - Q1 Market Share, Nvidia Partnership, TSMC Node Advantage

United States

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

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Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 3Q25 Outlook Suggests Modest Growth, but FX Could Pose a Headwind.

TSMC poised for 5-10% revenue growth in Q3, on track to meet full-year target with AI boom and increased semi investment tax credits. N3P process...

Patrick Liao

Semi News: Power GaN, Samsung and Intel’s Foundry Margins (And Wafer Price), Chinese GPU IPO

Potential oversupply of Power GaN, similar to SiC situation. Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm due to low yields. Chinese GPU companies...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Has Samsung Given Up Chasing TSMC?; Xiaomi Tesla-Killer EV Using Key TSMC Chips

Samsung has reportedly stopped trying to catch up to TSMC in chip manufacturing, while TSMC benefits from Xiaomi's surge in EV orders. The threat...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Chips News: GPU, CPU in China. Qualcomm Going to Samsung Maybe, Microsoft Accelerator Delayed.

Lisuan's new GPU lags behind AMD/Nvidia, Loongson's server CPU competitive vs Intel, SMIC's 7nm capacity a bottleneck. Qualcomm may use Samsung's...

Nicolas Baratte

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TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 3Q25 Outlook Suggests Modest Growth, but FX Could Pose a Headwind.

​TSMC poised for 5-10% revenue growth in Q3, on track to meet full-year target with AI boom and increased semi investment tax credits. N3P process...

Patrick Liao

Semi News: Power GaN, Samsung and Intel’s Foundry Margins (And Wafer Price), Chinese GPU IPO

​Potential oversupply of Power GaN, similar to SiC situation. Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm due to low yields. Chinese GPU companies...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Has Samsung Given Up Chasing TSMC?; Xiaomi Tesla-Killer EV Using Key TSMC Chips

​Samsung has reportedly stopped trying to catch up to TSMC in chip manufacturing, while TSMC benefits from Xiaomi's surge in EV orders. The threat...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Chips News: GPU, CPU in China. Qualcomm Going to Samsung Maybe, Microsoft Accelerator Delayed.

​Lisuan's new GPU lags behind AMD/Nvidia, Loongson's server CPU competitive vs Intel, SMIC's 7nm capacity a bottleneck. Qualcomm may use Samsung's...

Nicolas Baratte

Mediatek Rising in Smartphones and Beyond - Q1 Market Share, Nvidia Partnership, TSMC Node Advantage

​Mediatek's growth outperformance in smartphone chipset market. Nvidia partnership delivering high-end graphics for Mediatek in PCs and handheld...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC poised for 5-10% revenue growth in Q3, on track to meet full-year target with AI boom and increased semi investment tax credits. N3P process...

Potential oversupply of Power GaN, similar to SiC situation. Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm due to low yields. Chinese GPU companies...

Samsung has reportedly stopped trying to catch up to TSMC in chip manufacturing, while TSMC benefits from Xiaomi's surge in EV orders. The threat...

Lisuan's new GPU lags behind AMD/Nvidia, Loongson's server CPU competitive vs Intel, SMIC's 7nm capacity a bottleneck. Qualcomm may use Samsung's...

Mediatek's growth outperformance in smartphone chipset market. Nvidia partnership delivering high-end graphics for Mediatek in PCs and handheld...