Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan companies are required to report revenue on a monthly basis. These updates can help us understand how a given quarter is progressing &amp; predict quarterly earnings ahead of time</li>
<li>Initially we focused on MoM %  increase/decrease. This is useful, but one needs to account for anomalies such as seasonality and potential non-linearity month to month within a given quarter </li>
<li>We now also provide the monthly YoY revenue comparison. This eliminates anomalies due to both seasonality and intra-quarter non-linearity, enabling a clearer perspective on where the industry is at. </li>
</ul>


Taiwan companies are required to report revenue on a monthly basis. These updates can help us understand how a given quarter is progressing &amp; predict quarterly earnings ahead of time
Initially we focused on MoM %  increase/decrease. This is useful, but one needs to account for anomalies such as seasonality and potential non-linearity month to month within a given quarter 
We now also provide the monthly YoY revenue comparison. This eliminates anomalies due to both seasonality and intra-quarter non-linearity, enabling a clearer perspective on where the industry is at. 


Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dell has outperformed Acer and other Taiwan PC names Asus and MSI by a wide margin. Close Long Dell vs. Short Acer. Dell's value gap has dissipated.</li>
<li>Latest indications from Dell and HP highlight that the AI PC's will drive upgrades from customers, but the PC recovery remains soft. AI PC impact only in 2025E.</li>
<li>Dell and HPQ's recent results provide positive color for upcoming Asus, Acer, and MSI results. Trade: Long Asus into its upcoming earnings results.</li>
</ul>


Dell has outperformed Acer and other Taiwan PC names Asus and MSI by a wide margin. Close Long Dell vs. Short Acer. Dell's value gap has dissipated.
Latest indications from Dell and HP highlight that the AI PC's will drive upgrades from customers, but the PC recovery remains soft. AI PC impact only in 2025E.
Dell and HPQ's recent results provide positive color for upcoming Asus, Acer, and MSI results. Trade: Long Asus into its upcoming earnings results.


PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell & HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus

<ul>
<li>MSFT's new AI features for Windows will need computers with at least 16GB of DRAM to run effectively. MSFT is asking manufacturers for this as a minimum for AI models.</li>
<li>MSFT announced Copilot Pro for individuals and small businesses last week. The desire to use generative AI and the minimum required DRAM will drive accelerated PC upgrades.</li>
<li>We note relative strength in 16GB DRAM prices; In Memory space, we continue to see relative value in SK Hynix, however, Nanya has the opportunity to Outperform in Taiwan.</li>
</ul>


MSFT's new AI features for Windows will need computers with at least 16GB of DRAM to run effectively. MSFT is asking manufacturers for this as a minimum for AI models.
MSFT announced Copilot Pro for individuals and small businesses last week. The desire to use generative AI and the minimum required DRAM will drive accelerated PC upgrades.
We note relative strength in 16GB DRAM prices; In Memory space, we continue to see relative value in SK Hynix, however, Nanya has the opportunity to Outperform in Taiwan.


Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron

<ul>
<li>Asustek reported results on November 13th that beat analyst expectations thanks to a major margin rebound. The stock soared post results.</li>
<li>Asus plans to be the first company globally to release an AI PC, leveraging extensive AI R&amp;D across different devices as well as its leading market share in gaming PCs.</li>
<li>However, gaming PC competitor MSI is already moving fast; Shows how gaming PCs are likely to be the first AI PC battleground. Long Asustek, remains preferred over Acer.</li>
</ul>


Asustek reported results on November 13th that beat analyst expectations thanks to a major margin rebound. The stock soared post results.
Asus plans to be the first company globally to release an AI PC, leveraging extensive AI R&amp;D across different devices as well as its leading market share in gaming PCs.
However, gaming PC competitor MSI is already moving fast; Shows how gaming PCs are likely to be the first AI PC battleground. Long Asustek, remains preferred over Acer.


How Asustek Plans to Take the Lead Globally in AI PCs; Gaming PCs First Key Battleground

<ul>
<li>Intel's results last week beat expectations by a wide margin, with margins recovering better than expected by the Street and guided to keep improving through 4Q23E.</li>
<li>New Meteor Lake chips for PCs, branded as 'Intel Core Ultra' will officially launch December 14th and are expected to drive demand for new AI-optimized PCs in 2024E.</li>
<li>Intel said that the PC industry completed its inventory digestion in 1H23, drove sequential demand growth in 3Q23, and this is expected to continue into 4Q23E.</li>
</ul>


Intel's results last week beat expectations by a wide margin, with margins recovering better than expected by the Street and guided to keep improving through 4Q23E.
New Meteor Lake chips for PCs, branded as 'Intel Core Ultra' will officially launch December 14th and are expected to drive demand for new AI-optimized PCs in 2024E.
Intel said that the PC industry completed its inventory digestion in 1H23, drove sequential demand growth in 3Q23, and this is expected to continue into 4Q23E.


PC Monitor: Inventories Healthy & Intel Expects Over 100 Million AI PCs In Two Years

Taiwan

Acer Inc. manufactures and distributes semiconductor products, personal computers, computer peripherals, multimedia products, and computer software. The Company also provides maintenance and repair services to customers.  In addition, Acer Inc. operates real estate business. The Company markets its products under the Acer brand name.

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Acer Inc (2353 TT)

Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update

Tracking monthly revenues of Taiwan semiconductor companies helps us identify key trends mid-quarter. Initially we tracked the MoM revenue changes....

William Keating

PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell & HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus

Dell has outperformed Acer and other Taiwan PC names. Positive results from Dell and HPQ remove risk of disappointment in upcoming results for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron

Microsoft's new AI features for Windows require a minimum of 16GB of DRAM, prompting accelerated PC upgrades and a pulling forward of the demand...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

How Asustek Plans to Take the Lead Globally in AI PCs; Gaming PCs First Key Battleground

However, gaming PC competitor MSI is already moving fast; Shows how gaming PCs are likely to be the first AI PC battleground. Long Asustek, remains...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: Inventories Healthy & Intel Expects Over 100 Million AI PCs In Two Years

New Meteor Lake chips launching in December are anticipated to boost demand for AI-optimized PCs in 2024. The PC industry's inventory digestion is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update

Tracking monthly revenues of Taiwan semiconductor companies helps us identify key trends mid-quarter. Initially we tracked the MoM revenue changes....

William Keating

PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell & HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus

​Dell has outperformed Acer and other Taiwan PC names. Positive results from Dell and HPQ remove risk of disappointment in upcoming results for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron

​Microsoft's new AI features for Windows require a minimum of 16GB of DRAM, prompting accelerated PC upgrades and a pulling forward of the demand...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

How Asustek Plans to Take the Lead Globally in AI PCs; Gaming PCs First Key Battleground

However, gaming PC competitor MSI is already moving fast; Shows how gaming PCs are likely to be the first AI PC battleground. Long Asustek, remains...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: Inventories Healthy & Intel Expects Over 100 Million AI PCs In Two Years

New Meteor Lake chips launching in December are anticipated to boost demand for AI-optimized PCs in 2024. The PC industry's inventory digestion is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Dell has outperformed Acer and other Taiwan PC names. Positive results from Dell and HPQ remove risk of disappointment in upcoming results for...

Microsoft's new AI features for Windows require a minimum of 16GB of DRAM, prompting accelerated PC upgrades and a pulling forward of the demand...