Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Despite negative recent developments, we have remained steadfast in our belief that weakness in May has presented an attractive time to add exposure. In our June International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to this belief, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities within our favorite Groups, spanning the Consumer Staples, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Services, Health Care, and Financial Sectors.

Despite negative recent developments, we have remained steadfast in our belief that weakness in May has presented an attractive time to add exposure. In our June International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to this belief, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities within our favorite Groups, spanning the Consumer Staples, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Services, Health Care, and Financial Sectors.

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Cautiously Optimistic Outlook Intact

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE / Technical Analysis

We continue to believe that equities in Europe and the UK are bottoming with the STOXX Europe 600 index breaking topside its 14-month downtrend. Helping lead the turnaround is the Personal &amp; Household Goods supersector. We believe outperformance is set to continue and several stocks are actionable at current levels within our int’l Group CD-28 Apparel, Accessory &amp; Luxury Goods, Europe: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (MC-FR), Christian Dior SE (CDI-FR), Kering SA (KER-FR), Hermes International SCA (RMS-FR), adidas AG (ADS-DE), Moncler SpA (MONC-IT), PUMA SE (PUM-DE), and Bjorn Borg AB (BORG-SE). Add exposure.

We continue to believe that equities in Europe and the UK are bottoming with the STOXX Europe 600 index breaking topside its 14-month downtrend. Helping lead the turnaround is the Personal &amp; Household Goods supersector. We believe outperformance is set to continue and several stocks are actionable at current levels within our int’l Group CD-28 Apparel, Accessory &amp; Luxury Goods, Europe: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (MC-FR), Christian Dior SE (CDI-FR), Kering SA (KER-FR), Hermes International SCA (RMS-FR), adidas AG (ADS-DE), Moncler SpA (MONC-IT), PUMA SE (PUM-DE), and Bjorn Borg AB (BORG-SE). Add exposure.

European Apparel, Accessory & Luxury Goods Stocks Are Heating Up -- Add Exposure

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18448" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1">Itochu (8001 JP)</a> continues a battle of words and equity as it attempts to gain more control over sports firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1">Descente (8114 JP)</a>.
Meanwhile, Descente has brought in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6274" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6274:1">Wacoal (3591 JP)</a> as a white knight and made a splash in the business media about its recent success.
Itochu insists that Descente needs Itochu’s management skills, particularly to build a stronger business in China and other overseas markets, and says the only way to make Descente listen is to buy more stock – more than its current nearly 30%.

Itochu (8001 JP) continues a battle of words and equity as it attempts to gain more control over sports firm Descente (8114 JP).
Meanwhile, Descente has brought in Wacoal (3591 JP) as a white knight and made a splash in the business media about its recent success.
Itochu insists that Descente needs Itochu’s management skills, particularly to build a stronger business in China and other overseas markets, and says the only way to make Descente listen is to buy more stock – more than its current nearly 30%.

Itochu Confirms Intent to Deepen Hold over Descente

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

A consortium led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10261" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> launched a recommended public cash tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21751" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1">Amer Sports Oyj (AMEAS FH)</a> last Friday. The tender offer of €40 per share values Amer Sports at an EV of €5.5 billion. The proposed acquisition would be the largest outbound deal into Europe by a Chinese company in 2018. If successful, the deal would mark the culmination of a multi-month negotiation that has seen Amer Sports resist the advances of ANTA Sports as it preferred to stay independent.<div class="content-highlight">Our analysis suggests that the proposed acquisition and deal structure is good for Amer Sports’ shareholders and FountainVest. However, ANTA Sports' shareholders appear to be getting the short end of the stick.</div>

A consortium led by Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) launched a recommended public cash tender offer for Amer Sports Oyj (AMEAS FH) last Friday. The tender offer of €40 per share values Amer Sports at an EV of €5.5 billion. The proposed acquisition would be the largest outbound deal into Europe by a Chinese company in 2018. If successful, the deal would mark the culmination of a multi-month negotiation that has seen Amer Sports resist the advances of ANTA Sports as it preferred to stay independent.Our analysis suggests that the proposed acquisition and deal structure is good for Amer Sports’ shareholders and FountainVest. However, ANTA Sports' shareholders appear to be getting the short end of the stick.

ANTA/Amer: Good Deal for Amer and FountainVest, a Poor Deal for ANTA

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

We cut Q4 2018 GMV from 50% to 35% YoY, given <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24184" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24184:1">Baozun Inc. (BZUN US)</a> catastrophic miss last weekend during the 11.11 holiday sales.  We estimate ~29% GMV growth in 2019/2018, 1.2% Net Income/GMV in 2019, thus reaching $0.99 EPS for 2019, representing a 12% growth YoY, sharply decelerating from 28% YoY in 2018.  Using 20x P/2019E, our new price target is $20 (vs. $29 PT published in August), 38% downside from $32 share price today.

We cut Q4 2018 GMV from 50% to 35% YoY, given Baozun Inc. (BZUN US) catastrophic miss last weekend during the 11.11 holiday sales.  We estimate ~29% GMV growth in 2019/2018, 1.2% Net Income/GMV in 2019, thus reaching $0.99 EPS for 2019, representing a 12% growth YoY, sharply decelerating from 28% YoY in 2018.  Using 20x P/2019E, our new price target is $20 (vs. $29 PT published in August), 38% downside from $32 share price today.   

Baozun - Customer Disintermediation Due to Obsolete Business Moat - SELL

Germany

adidas AG manufactures sports shoes and sports equipment. The Company produces products that include footwear, sports apparel, and golf clubs and balls. adidas sells its products worldwide.

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adidas (ADS GR)

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Cautiously Optimistic Outlook Intact

Despite negative recent developments, we have remained steadfast in our belief that weakness in May has presented an attractive time to add...

Vermilion Research

European Apparel, Accessory & Luxury Goods Stocks Are Heating Up -- Add Exposure

We continue to believe that equities in Europe and the UK are bottoming with the STOXX Europe 600 index breaking topside its 14-month downtrend....

Vermilion Research

Itochu Confirms Intent to Deepen Hold over Descente

Itochu (8001 JP) continues a battle of words and equity as it attempts to gain more control over sports firm Descente (8114 JP). Meanwhile,...

Michael Causton

ANTA/Amer: Good Deal for Amer and FountainVest, a Poor Deal for ANTA

A consortium led by Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) launched a recommended public cash tender offer for Amer Sports Oyj (AMEAS FH) last Friday. The...

Arun George

Baozun - Customer Disintermediation Due to Obsolete Business Moat - SELL

We cut Q4 2018 GMV from 50% to 35% YoY, given Baozun Inc. (BZUN US) catastrophic miss last weekend during the 11.11 holiday sales. We estimate...

JL Warren Capital

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