Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In May 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on underlying data from SouFun-CREIS, increased by 40%, compared to 16.9% in April. Overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and Tier-2) increased by 6% in May YTD y/y, compared to 6.8% in April, a more muted growth compared to the activity by major developers. Acquisitions of pure commercial land grew by 136%…

In May 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on underlying data from SouFun-CREIS, increased by 40%, compared to 16.9% in April. Overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and Tier-2) increased by 6% in May YTD y/y, compared to 6.8% in April, a more muted growth compared to the activity by major developers. Acquisitions of pure commercial land grew by 136%…

China: Slower Land Sales Growth In 40 Major Cities But Acquisitions By Major Developers Rise 40%

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

Outlook on China’s PMI  The month of June furthered the case that the Chinese economy has plateaued and potentially started declining again. With last month’s PMI at 50.1, there was reason to believe we would see real economy expansion but this failed to materialize. Throughout June, most industries showed a downward trend in production output generating a PMI of 50.0, .1 lower than the last month. The slowdown in output and manager expectation does not provide a positive outlook on a leverage…

Outlook on China’s PMI  The month of June furthered the case that the Chinese economy has plateaued and potentially started declining again. With last month’s PMI at 50.1, there was reason to believe we would see real economy expansion but this failed to materialize. Throughout June, most industries showed a downward trend in production output generating a PMI of 50.0, .1 lower than the last month. The slowdown in output and manager expectation does not provide a positive outlook on a leverage…

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

Following a recent company visit to Air China, we marginally increase our 2016 net income and revenue growth projections to 36% (from 32%) and 5% (from 3%), respectively, mainly on better-than-expected yield from international flights.We maintain our fair value estimate of HKD 7 per share and consider the current market price undervalued, as Air China’s long-term growth outlook remains intact despite near-term economic uncertainty. Our no-moat and very high uncertainty ratings stand, as the airline industry is defined by low switching cost, low entry barriers, and hypercompetition.Analyst: John Hu

Following a recent company visit to Air China, we marginally increase our 2016 net income and revenue growth projections to 36% (from 32%) and 5% (from 3%), respectively, mainly on better-than-expected yield from international flights.We maintain our fair value estimate of HKD 7 per share and consider the current market price undervalued, as Air China’s long-term growth outlook remains intact despite near-term economic uncertainty. Our no-moat and very high uncertainty ratings stand, as the airline industry is defined by low switching cost, low entry barriers, and hypercompetition.Analyst: John Hu

Air China Management Meeting Takeaway: International Expansion Drives Top-Line and Earnings Growth

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Interest rates will remain lower, for longer. For banks with excess liquidity, this means margin pressure. We look at HSBC and STAN where liquidity is high.  An additional consideration are rising credit costs from a worsening economy. It was not a positive environment for these large, liquid banks before. It is now worse.Cash and equivalent of key large banks (US$ Bn)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/009/689/original/dt1.png?1467078004" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="9689"><figcaption class="figcaption">Source: SNL Financial</figcaption></figure>The most talked about event for years was when US rates would rise. HSBC latched onto this, indicating to…

Interest rates will remain lower, for longer. For banks with excess liquidity, this means margin pressure. We look at HSBC and STAN where liquidity is high.  An additional consideration are rising credit costs from a worsening economy. It was not a positive environment for these large, liquid banks before. It is now worse.Cash and equivalent of key large banks (US$ Bn)Source: SNL FinancialThe most talked about event for years was when US rates would rise. HSBC latched onto this, indicating to…

Recent data of the excessively leveraged economy in China yielded few positive results. While data from previous months hinted that the Chinese economy might be heading towards growth, the post PMI of 50.1 defied those predictions.Most sectors in June either witnessed stagnant output or a decline except for steel which has witnessed output growth of 14% since January 31. Though in the beginning of June the daily steel output slightly declined, it is anticipated that with the start of the…

Recent data of the excessively leveraged economy in China yielded few positive results. While data from previous months hinted that the Chinese economy might be heading towards growth, the post PMI of 50.1 defied those predictions.Most sectors in June either witnessed stagnant output or a decline except for steel which has witnessed output growth of 14% since January 31. Though in the beginning of June the daily steel output slightly declined, it is anticipated that with the start of the…

China

Air China Limited provides passenger, cargo, and airline-related services in China.  The Company is primarily based in Beijing and a major hub for domestic and international air transportation.  Air China's airline-related services include aircraft maintenance, repair, overhaul service, ground services, and in-flight catering services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH)

China: Slower Land Sales Growth In 40 Major Cities But Acquisitions By Major Developers Rise 40%

In May 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Economic Recap for June

Outlook on China’s PMI The month of June furthered the case that the Chinese economy has plateaued and potentially started declining again. With...

Christopher Balding

Air China Management Meeting Takeaway: International Expansion Drives Top-Line and Earnings Growth

Following a recent company visit to Air China, we marginally increase our 2016 net income and revenue growth projections to 36% (from 32%) and 5%...

Morningstar, Inc.

Low Rates for Longer - Asian Banks

Interest rates will remain lower, for longer. For banks with excess liquidity, this means margin pressure. We look at HSBC and STAN where liquidity...

Daniel Tabbush

Early Look June Economic Activity

Recent data of the excessively leveraged economy in China yielded few positive results. While data from previous months hinted that the Chinese...

Christopher Balding

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)