New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Guidance upgrade: AIR's new FY23 pre-tax profit (PBT) guidance band of NZ$510m–NZ$560m, up from NZ$450m–NZ$530m, represents a ~+9% increase at the mid-point.</li><li>March operating stats highlights continued positive trading: AIR's March 2023 operating stats show continued strong demand with monthly revenue materially (+13% on our estimates) above CY19 levels. </li><li>Supportive oil price: The downwards slope in jet fuel prices has persisted since the peak in mid-CY22, reflecting a combination of more settled crude oil prices and a reduction in the crack spread.</li></ul>

Guidance upgrade: AIR's new FY23 pre-tax profit (PBT) guidance band of NZ$510m–NZ$560m, up from NZ$450m–NZ$530m, represents a ~+9% increase at the mid-point.March operating stats highlights continued positive trading: AIR's March 2023 operating stats show continued strong demand with monthly revenue materially (+13% on our estimates) above CY19 levels. Supportive oil price: The downwards slope in jet fuel prices has persisted since the peak in mid-CY22, reflecting a combination of more settled crude oil prices and a reduction in the crack spread.

Air New Zealand: Tailwind Lift for Higher Flying

<ul><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) has issued a new FY23 PBT guidance band of NZ$510m-NZ$560m, up from NZ$450m-NZ$530m</li><li>The company highlights (1) continued strong pax demand across both international and domestic network (meaning yields remain high), (2) a lower USD oil price partly offset by a weaker NZD, and (3) softer cargo revenues as airfreight yields decline and industry volumes slip.</li><li>AIR’s better near term profitability highlights continued strong yields, which will likely flow into FY24.</li></ul>

Air New Zealand (AIR) has issued a new FY23 PBT guidance band of NZ$510m-NZ$560m, up from NZ$450m-NZ$530mThe company highlights (1) continued strong pax demand across both international and domestic network (meaning yields remain high), (2) a lower USD oil price partly offset by a weaker NZD, and (3) softer cargo revenues as airfreight yields decline and industry volumes slip.AIR’s better near term profitability highlights continued strong yields, which will likely flow into FY24.

Air New Zealand: Guidance Upgrade (30-Apr-2023)

<ul><li>Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a continuation of strong yields and revenue above pre-COVID levels through early 2H23</li><li>Our estimate (~NZ$440m) for its February 2023 pax revenue is comfortably ahead of February 2019 (~NZ$420m), implying ~NZ$15.7m/day</li><li>Demand remains strong in a capacity constrained market, though loads and yields have softened from recent highs.</li></ul>

Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a continuation of strong yields and revenue above pre-COVID levels through early 2H23Our estimate (~NZ$440m) for its February 2023 pax revenue is comfortably ahead of February 2019 (~NZ$420m), implying ~NZ$15.7m/dayDemand remains strong in a capacity constrained market, though loads and yields have softened from recent highs.

Air New Zealand: Some Signs of Yields Easing

<ul>
<li>Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a continuation of strong yields and revenue above pre-COVID levels through early 2H23</li>
<li>Our estimate (~NZ$505m) for its January 2023 pax revenue is comfortably ahead of January 2019 (~NZ$450m), implying ~NZ$18.1m/day.</li>
<li>January was a four week month (AIR uses a 4-4-5 week monthly approach to each quarter). <span style="text-decoration: underline;">We calculate this to be the second highest monthly pax revenue per day in AIR’s history</span>, marginally lower than last month</li>
</ul>


Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a continuation of strong yields and revenue above pre-COVID levels through early 2H23
Our estimate (~NZ$505m) for its January 2023 pax revenue is comfortably ahead of January 2019 (~NZ$450m), implying ~NZ$18.1m/day.
January was a four week month (AIR uses a 4-4-5 week monthly approach to each quarter). We calculate this to be the second highest monthly pax revenue per day in AIR’s history, marginally lower than last month


<ul><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) has reported a strong return to profitability in its 1H23 result though earnings are at the bottom end of its guidance range</li><li>Underlying PBT of NZ$299m, compares to its guidance range of NZ$295m-NZ$325m</li><li>There is no interim dividend though the Board says it will reconsider paying dividends earlier than its previous FY26 timeframe at the FY23 full year result in August 2023.</li></ul>

Air New Zealand (AIR) has reported a strong return to profitability in its 1H23 result though earnings are at the bottom end of its guidance rangeUnderlying PBT of NZ$299m, compares to its guidance range of NZ$295m-NZ$325mThere is no interim dividend though the Board says it will reconsider paying dividends earlier than its previous FY26 timeframe at the FY23 full year result in August 2023.

Air New Zealand (AIR): 1H23 Result Initial Thoughts

New Zealand

Air New Zealand Limited operates an airline business that provides international and domestic air passenger and cargo transport services throughout New Zealand and the South West Pacific. The Company also provides engineering and ground handling services.

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Air New Zealand (AIR NZ)

Air New Zealand: Tailwind Lift for Higher Flying

Air New Zealand (AIR) has upgraded its FY23 earnings guidance range reflecting continued strong levels of passenger (pax) demand on both domestic...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand: Guidance Upgrade (30-Apr-2023)

Air New Zealand (AIR) has issued a new FY23 PBT guidance band of NZ$510m-NZ$560m, up from NZ$450m-NZ$530m, which the company highlights (1)...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand: Some Signs of Yields Easing

Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a continuation of strong yields and revenue above pre-COVID levels...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand: Peak Yields

Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a continuation of strong yields and revenue above pre-COVID levels...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand (AIR): 1H23 Result Initial Thoughts

Air New Zealand (AIR) has reported a strong return to profitability in its 1H23 result though earnings are at the bottom end of its guidance range;...

Forsyth Barr

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