Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>MENA remains a structural underweight, absent in nearly 25% of EM funds, though participation has climbed to a decade high with 75.9% of EM funds now holding positions.</li>
<li>UAE has overtaken Saudi as the largest allocation, supported by inflows into Real Estate and Financials; Saudi remains underweight, while Qatar and Kuwait attract little investor interest.</li>
<li>Emaar, Al Rajhi, Aldar, and Saudi National Bank anchor MENA exposure, with second-tier growth from ADCB, Emirates NBD, and UAE Energy sectors.</li>
</ul>


MENA remains a structural underweight, absent in nearly 25% of EM funds, though participation has climbed to a decade high with 75.9% of EM funds now holding positions.
UAE has overtaken Saudi as the largest allocation, supported by inflows into Real Estate and Financials; Saudi remains underweight, while Qatar and Kuwait attract little investor interest.
Emaar, Al Rajhi, Aldar, and Saudi National Bank anchor MENA exposure, with second-tier growth from ADCB, Emirates NBD, and UAE Energy sectors.


MENA: From Structural Underweight to Selective Rebuild

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Real Estate exposure among active Emerging Market funds is rebounding after a decade-long bear market from 2012-2022.</li>
<li>Average weights are at their highest levels in 10 years. Despite this recovery, Real Estate remains a "non-essential" sector, with 23% of funds avoiding exposure entirely.</li>
<li>Country-Level trends highlight a rotation from China into the U.A.E, driven by record-high fund ownership in names like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emaar-properties-pjsc-004c637d-b17a-4c9b-849b-0c89d3b1f6b4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25955:1" rel="noopener">Emaar Properties Pjsc (EMAAR UH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aldar-properties-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27654:1" rel="noopener">Aldar Properties PJSC (ALDAR UH)</a>
</li>
</ul>


Real Estate exposure among active Emerging Market funds is rebounding after a decade-long bear market from 2012-2022.
Average weights are at their highest levels in 10 years. Despite this recovery, Real Estate remains a "non-essential" sector, with 23% of funds avoiding exposure entirely.
Country-Level trends highlight a rotation from China into the U.A.E, driven by record-high fund ownership in names like Emaar Properties Pjsc (EMAAR UH) and Aldar Properties PJSC (ALDAR UH)



Real Estate:  Recovery Among Active GEM Funds

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Singtel (Singapore Telecommunications) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)</li>
<li>We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."</li>
<li>Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.</li>
</ul>


The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.


Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

<ul>
<li>MENA stocks hit record underweight among active Emerging Market managers</li>
<li>Only half of active managers have exposure to the region, less than 3% overweight.</li>
<li>Al Rajhi Bank is the investor favourite, though all stocks remain underinvested vs benchmark</li>
</ul>


MENA stocks hit record underweight among active Emerging Market managers
Only half of active managers have exposure to the region, less than 3% overweight.
Al Rajhi Bank is the investor favourite, though all stocks remain underinvested vs benchmark


The last decade has seen EMEA allocations in active GEM portfolios drift ever lower, with Asia becoming the dominant weight.  However, the recent rhetoric from China has seen Asian allocations fall from their peak and EMEA allocations rally from their lows.  Average weights in EMEA stocks stand at 13.72%, marginally overweight the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF by 0.24%, with just under half of the active managers in our analysis overweight. <ul>
<li>Over the course of the last decade, exposure to each EMEA sector has either fallen dramatically or at best stayed largely unchanged.  Those that have seen a big decline in investment are led by EMEA Industrials and Health Care, with over 40% of investors closing exposure.  </li>
<li>The largest sector exposure, EMEA Financials allocations sit towards the lower-end of their historical range.  Top holdings are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sberbank-of-russia-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24142:1" rel="noopener">Sberbank Of Russia Pjsc (SBER LI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otp-bank-nyrt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28806:1" rel="noopener">OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP HB)</a> with 59% and 31% of funds invested respectively.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcs-group-holding-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28148:1" rel="noopener">TCS Group Holding PLC (TCS LI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitec-bank-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27628:1" rel="noopener">Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CPI SJ)</a> saw ownership levels increase the most over the last 6-months.</li>
<li>Consumer Discretionary weights hit another all-time high this month of 1.46%, representing a 1.04% overweight versus the iShares MSCI EM ETF.  Underpinning the overweight are out-of-benchmark holdings in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> and Fix Price Group, though in general stocks in the sector are not widely held.  Funds with big overweights are led by Comgest's GEM Promising Companies Fund (8.98%) and Van Eck's Emerging Markets Fund (7.21%).  </li>
<li>With active ownership declining throughout 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gazprom-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23749:1" rel="noopener">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX)</a> has finally been the recipient of some inflows.  Over the last 6-months, 2% of funds added Gazprom to their portfolios with a combined $217m in inflows.  Leading those were Fidelity (2.7%), Virtus Allianz (2.67%) and JP Morgan ($64m).</li>
</ul>The analysis looks in detail at all sectors in the EMEA region, together with some of the key stocks that underpin investment in the region.Analysis taken from our GEM fund research, covering 250 active GEM strategies with combined AUM of $500bn

The last decade has seen EMEA allocations in active GEM portfolios drift ever lower, with Asia becoming the dominant weight.  However, the recent rhetoric from China has seen Asian allocations fall from their peak and EMEA allocations rally from their lows.  Average weights in EMEA stocks stand at 13.72%, marginally overweight the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF by 0.24%, with just under half of the active managers in our analysis overweight. 
Over the course of the last decade, exposure to each EMEA sector has either fallen dramatically or at best stayed largely unchanged.  Those that have seen a big decline in investment are led by EMEA Industrials and Health Care, with over 40% of investors closing exposure.  
The largest sector exposure, EMEA Financials allocations sit towards the lower-end of their historical range.  Top holdings are Sberbank Of Russia Pjsc (SBER LI) and OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP HB) with 59% and 31% of funds invested respectively.  TCS Group Holding PLC (TCS LI) and Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CPI SJ) saw ownership levels increase the most over the last 6-months.
Consumer Discretionary weights hit another all-time high this month of 1.46%, representing a 1.04% overweight versus the iShares MSCI EM ETF.  Underpinning the overweight are out-of-benchmark holdings in Prosus (PRX NA) and Fix Price Group, though in general stocks in the sector are not widely held.  Funds with big overweights are led by Comgest's GEM Promising Companies Fund (8.98%) and Van Eck's Emerging Markets Fund (7.21%).  
With active ownership declining throughout 2020, Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX) has finally been the recipient of some inflows.  Over the last 6-months, 2% of funds added Gazprom to their portfolios with a combined $217m in inflows.  Leading those were Fidelity (2.7%), Virtus Allianz (2.67%) and JP Morgan ($64m).
The analysis looks in detail at all sectors in the EMEA region, together with some of the key stocks that underpin investment in the region.Analysis taken from our GEM fund research, covering 250 active GEM strategies with combined AUM of $500bn

EMEA Sectors Deep-Dive.  Active Positioning in the EMEA Region

United Arab Emirates

Aldar Properties PJSC is a property development, investment and management company operating in the Middle East and North Africa region. The Company, and its subsidiaries, develops commercial and residential apartments, as well as hotels, schools, offices, marinas, and golf courses. Aldar Properties is based out of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates and was incorporated in 2005.

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Aldar Properties PJSC (ALDAR UH)

MENA: From Structural Underweight to Selective Rebuild

MENA stays structurally underweight but participation is rising, led by UAE and Saudi. Real Estate and Financials drive inflows, with Emaar, Al...

Steven Holden

Real Estate: Recovery Among Active GEM Funds

Real Estate exposure among active Emerging Market funds is rebounding after a decade-long bear market from 2012-2022, with the U.A.E leading the...

Steven Holden

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

Record MENA Underweight

MENA stocks hit record underweight among active Emerging Market managers. Only half of active EM managers are exposed to the region and less than...

Steven Holden

EMEA Sectors Deep-Dive. Active Positioning in the EMEA Region

The last decade has seen EMEA weights drift ever lower. We look in detail at all sectors in the EMEA region, together with some of the key stocks...

Steven Holden

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