European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>White knight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/georg-fischer-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22359:1" rel="noopener">Georg Fischer AG (FI/N SW)</a> announced a voluntary recommended public €28.85/share cash offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uponor-oyj" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21787:1" rel="noopener">Uponor OYJ (UNR1V FH)</a>, a 12% premium to Aliaxis's offer, with c.37% irrevocable undertakings.</li>
<li>Although Aliaxis could still block a squeeze-out, GF and Uponor could make its life difficult and are granting it an honourable exit with capital gains around €55 million.</li>
<li>Spread is 0.52%/1.05% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by mid-December). Although I believe the deal will close, it is probably not worth going long Uponor it on this spread level.</li>
</ul>


White knight Georg Fischer AG (FI/N SW) announced a voluntary recommended public €28.85/share cash offer for Uponor OYJ (UNR1V FH), a 12% premium to Aliaxis's offer, with c.37% irrevocable undertakings.
Although Aliaxis could still block a squeeze-out, GF and Uponor could make its life difficult and are granting it an honourable exit with capital gains around €55 million.
Spread is 0.52%/1.05% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by mid-December). Although I believe the deal will close, it is probably not worth going long Uponor it on this spread level.


Georg Fischer/Uponor: Terms and Aliaxis's Honourable Exit

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aliaxis-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21313:1" rel="noopener">Aliaxis SA (ALIVP BB)</a> seeks market expansion and by offering a 55% premium (€25.75/share,10.0x EV/Fwd EBITDA) it's quickly accumulated a 20% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uponor-oyj" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21787:1" rel="noopener">Uponor OYJ (UNR1V FH)</a>, whose Board isn't engaging.</li>
<li>The shares trade c.7% above the offer on expectations of others suitors, but the stake already owned by Aliaxis should act as a deterrent. My fair value estimate (EV/EBITDA) is €27.09/share.</li>
<li>The share price implies 6.6% perpetuity growth (in a mature industry) on a conservative 11.5% WACC. Oras (25% stake) isn't giving into temptation. Aliaxis'd be happy with another 30%.</li>
</ul>



Aliaxis SA (ALIVP BB) seeks market expansion and by offering a 55% premium (€25.75/share,10.0x EV/Fwd EBITDA) it's quickly accumulated a 20% stake in Uponor OYJ (UNR1V FH), whose Board isn't engaging.
The shares trade c.7% above the offer on expectations of others suitors, but the stake already owned by Aliaxis should act as a deterrent. My fair value estimate (EV/EBITDA) is €27.09/share.
The share price implies 6.6% perpetuity growth (in a mature industry) on a conservative 11.5% WACC. Oras (25% stake) isn't giving into temptation. Aliaxis'd be happy with another 30%.


Belgium

Aliaxis SA manufactures plastic plumbing products for the construction, industrial, and public utilities sectors.

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Aliaxis SA (ALIVP BB)

Georg Fischer/Uponor: Terms and Aliaxis's Honourable Exit

White knight Georg Fischer announced a voluntary recommended €28.85/share cash offer for Uponor, a 12% premium to Aliaxis's offer, with c.37%...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Aliaxis/Uponor: Hostile Offer

Aliaxis SA (ALIVP BB) seeks market expansion and by offering a 55% premium (€25.75/share,10.0x EV/Fwd EBITDA) it's quickly accumulated a 20% stake...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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