Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Optimism for improved shareholder returns through IPOs diminishes further as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> puts the Cloud spinoff on hold.</li>
<li>Jack Ma's sale of 10m ADS, representing 5% of his Alibaba holdings, sparks concern. Investors should worry about his lack of optimism.</li>
<li>With the Cloud IPO on hold, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> is vulnerable to numerous downside catalysts, as outlined below.</li>
</ul>


Optimism for improved shareholder returns through IPOs diminishes further as Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) puts the Cloud spinoff on hold.
Jack Ma's sale of 10m ADS, representing 5% of his Alibaba holdings, sparks concern. Investors should worry about his lack of optimism.
With the Cloud IPO on hold, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) is vulnerable to numerous downside catalysts, as outlined below.


Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BABA/VIPS/PDD/3690.HK/JD: Social Retail Consumption data improved in October MoM (+)</li>
<li>700.HK: Tencent raises ownership stake in a Wuxia Genre Gaming Studio (+)</li>
<li>SE/ PDD/ BABA: Highlights of Sea Limited's  disappointing Q3 results(-)</li>
</ul>


BABA/VIPS/PDD/3690.HK/JD: Social Retail Consumption data improved in October MoM (+)
700.HK: Tencent raises ownership stake in a Wuxia Genre Gaming Studio (+)
SE/ PDD/ BABA: Highlights of Sea Limited's  disappointing Q3 results(-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: BABA/ VIPS/PDD/JD/Meituan, 3690.HK/Tencent, 700.HK/SE

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s cloud servers experienced downtime for more than three hours.</li>
<li>Kuaishou achieved success in the Singles Day sales and we expect a high growth rate for “other revenue” in 3Q23.</li>
<li>Tims China’s revenue grew strongly with aggressive expansion of new stores.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s cloud servers experienced downtime for more than three hours.
Kuaishou achieved success in the Singles Day sales and we expect a high growth rate for “other revenue” in 3Q23.
Tims China’s revenue grew strongly with aggressive expansion of new stores.


China Consumption Weekly (20 Nov 2023): Alibaba, Kuaishou, Tencent Music, JD.com, Tims China

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>In-Line results were overshadowed by company's pullback from March restructuring plan and Jack ma's family trust selling shares.</li>
<li>Worst sell-off in a year was over-reaction as abrupt changes unnerved investors who tended to interpret the events  with excessive negative sentiments.</li>
<li>Valuation almost priced in a scenario where company is overtaken by PDD in faltering Chinese economy. Selling amidst this extreme pessimism is the last thing investors want in our view. </li>
</ul>


In-Line results were overshadowed by company's pullback from March restructuring plan and Jack ma's family trust selling shares.
Worst sell-off in a year was over-reaction as abrupt changes unnerved investors who tended to interpret the events  with excessive negative sentiments.
Valuation almost priced in a scenario where company is overtaken by PDD in faltering Chinese economy. Selling amidst this extreme pessimism is the last thing investors want in our view. 


Alibaba (BABA US): Selling at This Valuation Is Last Thing You Want

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Led by international activity, CaiNiao booked +25% Y/Y revenue growth in FYQ2</li>
<li>FYQ2 EBITA margin improved Y/Y and Q/Q, even as express companies struggled</li>
<li>Result bolsters CaiNiao status as vehicle to access BABA's international growth</li>
</ul>


Led by international activity, CaiNiao booked +25% Y/Y revenue growth in FYQ2
FYQ2 EBITA margin improved Y/Y and Q/Q, even as express companies struggled
Result bolsters CaiNiao status as vehicle to access BABA's international growth


CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (9988 HK)

Alibaba: Bull Thesis Shattered

Putting the Cloud spinoff on hold renders Alibaba's share price susceptible to downside catalysts, creating a vulnerable position for the company...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: BABA/ VIPS/PDD/JD/Meituan, 3690.HK/Tencent, 700.HK/SE

Social retail consumption data improved in October for BABA, VIPS, PDD, 3690.HK, and JD. Tencent increased ownership stake in a Wuxia Genre Gaming...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Consumption Weekly (20 Nov 2023): Alibaba, Kuaishou, Tencent Music, JD.com, Tims China

Alibaba’s cloud servers experienced downtime. Kuaishou achieved success in the Singles Day sales. Tims China’s revenue grew strongly with...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (BABA US): Selling at This Valuation Is Last Thing You Want

Sell-off post results was over-reaction, as cloud IPO pullback and founder selling shares drove negative sentiments to extremely bearish end....

Eric Chen

CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

CaiNiao's FYQ2 revenue growth was solid, and core margins improved. The company has emerged as a vehicle for gaining access to Alibaba's...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alibaba: Bull Thesis Shattered

​Putting the Cloud spinoff on hold renders Alibaba's share price susceptible to downside catalysts, creating a vulnerable position for the company...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: BABA/ VIPS/PDD/JD/Meituan, 3690.HK/Tencent, 700.HK/SE

​Social retail consumption data improved in October for BABA, VIPS, PDD, 3690.HK, and JD. Tencent increased ownership stake in a Wuxia Genre Gaming...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Consumption Weekly (20 Nov 2023): Alibaba, Kuaishou, Tencent Music, JD.com, Tims China

Alibaba’s cloud servers experienced downtime. Kuaishou achieved success in the Singles Day sales. Tims China’s revenue grew strongly with...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (BABA US): Selling at This Valuation Is Last Thing You Want

Sell-off post results was over-reaction, as cloud IPO pullback and founder selling shares drove negative sentiments to extremely bearish end....

Eric Chen

CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

CaiNiao's FYQ2 revenue growth was solid, and core margins improved. The company has emerged as a vehicle for gaining access to Alibaba's...

Tracking Traffic

Putting the Cloud spinoff on hold renders Alibaba's share price susceptible to downside catalysts, creating a vulnerable position for the company...

Social retail consumption data improved in October for BABA, VIPS, PDD, 3690.HK, and JD. Tencent increased ownership stake in a Wuxia Genre Gaming...