Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alibaba Cloud is doubling down on globalization with a bold new strategy and 380-billion-yuan ($52.7 billion) investment plan aimed at creating a unified global cloud network and accelerate the international rollout of its AI offerings.</li><li>The initiative seeks to establish Alibaba Cloud as the digital backbone for China’s next generation of global companies.</li><li>Speaking at the Alibaba Cloud “Go Global Summit” on Thursday, Wu Yongming, Alibaba Group CEO and Alibaba Cloud chairman, said China’s globalization is entering a new era — one led not just by product exports but by the global rise of Chinese technology, brands and advanced manufacturing.</li></ul>

Alibaba Cloud is doubling down on globalization with a bold new strategy and 380-billion-yuan ($52.7 billion) investment plan aimed at creating a unified global cloud network and accelerate the international rollout of its AI offerings.The initiative seeks to establish Alibaba Cloud as the digital backbone for China’s next generation of global companies.Speaking at the Alibaba Cloud “Go Global Summit” on Thursday, Wu Yongming, Alibaba Group CEO and Alibaba Cloud chairman, said China’s globalization is entering a new era — one led not just by product exports but by the global rise of Chinese technology, brands and advanced manufacturing.

Alibaba Cloud Goes Global With $52 Billion Bet on AI and Infrastructure 

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Alibaba (BABA) reported C1Q25 top line in-line with our estimate and consensus. Taobao/Tmall (T/T) outperformed while Cainiao and Int’l commerce underperformed. </li>
<li>Stabilization of domestic e-commerce is a major positive. However, on-demand e-commerce at home and video e-commerce abroad are two global growth drivers, </li>
<li>We see new challenges emerging following business stabilization. We believe the management is up to the task. We keep BABA in our TOP BUY list and reiterate rating and TP.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba (BABA) reported C1Q25 top line in-line with our estimate and consensus. Taobao/Tmall (T/T) outperformed while Cainiao and Int’l commerce underperformed. 
Stabilization of domestic e-commerce is a major positive. However, on-demand e-commerce at home and video e-commerce abroad are two global growth drivers, 
We see new challenges emerging following business stabilization. We believe the management is up to the task. We keep BABA in our TOP BUY list and reiterate rating and TP.


[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$150) Earnings Review]: Has Market Underestimated T/T Stabilization?

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Management claimed 4Q25 total revenue should grow by 10% YoY excluding two sold subsidiaries.</li>
<li>The growth rate of customer management revenue rose to two digits in 4Q25.</li>
<li>The main business margin was stable and most of the minor business margins rose YoY in 4Q25.</li>
</ul>


Management claimed 4Q25 total revenue should grow by 10% YoY excluding two sold subsidiaries.
The growth rate of customer management revenue rose to two digits in 4Q25.
The main business margin was stable and most of the minor business margins rose YoY in 4Q25.


Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25, Main Business Growth Recovered to 12% YoY, Buy

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Alibaba reported 4QFY25 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB236.5bn, up 6.6% YoY, largely inline with our forecast and Bloomberg consensus; adjusted EBITA for the quarter was RMB32.6bn, up 36% YoY, driven by profitability improvement across all business segments, also inline with consensus.</li><li>Alibaba delivered stronger-than-expected earnings growth for Taobao and Tmall (T&amp;T) Group, while this was partly offset by wider-thanexpected loss generated from Local Services Group (LSG) and Cainiao. “Cloud + AI”, as well as e-commerce are two key strategic development areas for Alibaba in the coming years.</li><li>We are positive that solid earnings growth of T&amp;T Group could sustain in 1QFY26, driven by increases in take rate and healthy GMV growth, while we note that accelerated investment in instant commerce could weigh on near-term earnings growth, especially when industry competition is intensifying. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Alibaba reported 4QFY25 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB236.5bn, up 6.6% YoY, largely inline with our forecast and Bloomberg consensus; adjusted EBITA for the quarter was RMB32.6bn, up 36% YoY, driven by profitability improvement across all business segments, also inline with consensus.Alibaba delivered stronger-than-expected earnings growth for Taobao and Tmall (T&amp;T) Group, while this was partly offset by wider-thanexpected loss generated from Local Services Group (LSG) and Cainiao. “Cloud + AI”, as well as e-commerce are two key strategic development areas for Alibaba in the coming years.We are positive that solid earnings growth of T&amp;T Group could sustain in 1QFY26, driven by increases in take rate and healthy GMV growth, while we note that accelerated investment in instant commerce could weigh on near-term earnings growth, especially when industry competition is intensifying. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba (BABA US) - Core Earnings a Nice Beat

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Baba has rallied 26.6% off the April low but remains 6.82% below its March high. Against this backdrop, we examine implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.</li>
<li>Implied volatility and the implied jump are both elevated relative to historical norms.</li>
<li>Given the setup, we suggest a short-vega hedge that offers downside protection while preserving limited upside participation.</li>
</ul>


Baba has rallied 26.6% off the April low but remains 6.82% below its March high. Against this backdrop, we examine implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.
Implied volatility and the implied jump are both elevated relative to historical norms.
Given the setup, we suggest a short-vega hedge that offers downside protection while preserving limited upside participation.


BABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Volatility Setup, Post-Release Price Behavior and Hedge Recommendation

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

Alibaba Cloud Goes Global With $52 Billion Bet on AI and Infrastructure

Alibaba Cloud is doubling down on globalization with a bold new strategy and 380-billion-yuan ($52.7 billion) investment plan aimed at creating a...

Caixin Global

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$150) Earnings Review]: Has Market Underestimated T/T Stabilization?

Alibaba's C1Q25 top line meets expectations, with Taobao/Tmall performing well. Domestic e-commerce stabilizing, but on-demand and video e...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25, Main Business Growth Recovered to 12% YoY, Buy

Management claimed total revenue should grow by 10% YoY in 4Q25 if excluding two sold subsidiaries. The growth rate of customer management revenue...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (BABA US) - Core Earnings a Nice Beat

Alibaba reported 4QFY25 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB236.5bn, up 6.6% YoY, largely inline with our forecast and Bloomberg consensus

CMB International

BABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Volatility Setup, Post-Release Price Behavior and Hedge Recommendation

Baba has rallied but remains below March high, implied vol and jump are high, consider short-vega hedge for downside protection.

John Ley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alibaba Cloud Goes Global With $52 Billion Bet on AI and Infrastructure

Alibaba Cloud is doubling down on globalization with a bold new strategy and 380-billion-yuan ($52.7 billion) investment plan aimed at creating a...

Caixin Global

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$150) Earnings Review]: Has Market Underestimated T/T Stabilization?

​Alibaba's C1Q25 top line meets expectations, with Taobao/Tmall performing well. Domestic e-commerce stabilizing, but on-demand and video e...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25, Main Business Growth Recovered to 12% YoY, Buy

Management claimed total revenue should grow by 10% YoY in 4Q25 if excluding two sold subsidiaries. The growth rate of customer management revenue...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (BABA US) - Core Earnings a Nice Beat

Alibaba reported 4QFY25 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB236.5bn, up 6.6% YoY, largely inline with our forecast and Bloomberg consensus

CMB International

BABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Volatility Setup, Post-Release Price Behavior and Hedge Recommendation

​Baba has rallied but remains below March high, implied vol and jump are high, consider short-vega hedge for downside protection.

John Ley

Alibaba's C1Q25 top line meets expectations, with Taobao/Tmall performing well. Domestic e-commerce stabilizing, but on-demand and video e...

Baba has rallied but remains below March high, implied vol and jump are high, consider short-vega hedge for downside protection.