Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for eight prominent Hong Kong stocks and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI Index</a>.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Recent market turbulence moderately lifted implied volatility for many stocks, but not to extreme levels. The approaching earnings season impacts October and November implied volatility.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for eight prominent Hong Kong stocks and the HSI Index.

Highlights: Recent market turbulence moderately lifted implied volatility for many stocks, but not to extreme levels. The approaching earnings season impacts October and November implied volatility.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


Tariff Shock Sends HK Volatility Higher: Meituan (3690 HK) Looks Cheap, Alibaba (9988 HK) Stays Rich

<ul>
<li>
Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Hong Kong market closed, but several Hong Kong–listed companies were caught up in the rout through their U.S.-listed ADRs.</li>
<li>This Insight details the impact on 15 prominent Hang Seng Index constituents — including Alibaba, Tencent, and HSBC. Implied volatility in U.S.-traded options on these ADRs moved sharply in response.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Understand what to expect when the Hong Kong market reopens after the weekend — both in terms of price performance and implied volatility.</li>
</ul>



Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Hong Kong market closed, but several Hong Kong–listed companies were caught up in the rout through their U.S.-listed ADRs.
This Insight details the impact on 15 prominent Hang Seng Index constituents — including Alibaba, Tencent, and HSBC. Implied volatility in U.S.-traded options on these ADRs moved sharply in response.

Why Read: Understand what to expect when the Hong Kong market reopens after the weekend — both in terms of price performance and implied volatility.


Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>For 2QFY26E (March year-end), we expect Alibaba Group Holding (Alibaba) to deliver revenue growth of 2% YoY, broadly inline with Bloomberg consensus, with customer management revenue (CMR) and Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG) revenue growth standing at 10% and 30%, respectively.</li><li>Although we have baked in the RMB37.4bn impact on adjusted EBITA from investment in quick commerce (QC) business, we believe the investment should have peaked out in 2QFY26 and its impact on earnings will start to fade in 3QFY26E as QC is on track to halve unit economics loss by end-Oct 2025.</li><li>We fine-tune our target price to US$209.4 (was US$210.3) to reflect adjustments in earnings forecast. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

For 2QFY26E (March year-end), we expect Alibaba Group Holding (Alibaba) to deliver revenue growth of 2% YoY, broadly inline with Bloomberg consensus, with customer management revenue (CMR) and Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG) revenue growth standing at 10% and 30%, respectively.Although we have baked in the RMB37.4bn impact on adjusted EBITA from investment in quick commerce (QC) business, we believe the investment should have peaked out in 2QFY26 and its impact on earnings will start to fade in 3QFY26E as QC is on track to halve unit economics loss by end-Oct 2025.We fine-tune our target price to US$209.4 (was US$210.3) to reflect adjustments in earnings forecast. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba (BABA US) - Quick Commerce Investment Peaked Out; Accelerating AI Adoption

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.</li>
<li>Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.</li>
<li>In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.</li>
</ul>


2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.
Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.
In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.


Hong Kong 2025 Placements - Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

<ul><li>We reiterate our positive view on Alibaba, backed by: 1) strong cloud revenue growth outlook, aided by both increase in adoption of AI-related products and digitalization demand;</li><li>2) solid e-commerce business development outlook, driven by increase in penetration of Quanzhantui, and cross-sell effect brought by the rapid development of Quick Commerce (QC) business, which we believe could help improve user stickiness and drive better customer management revenue (CMR) outlook over the medium to long term.</li><li>With strong technological capability and abundant application scenario of AI, Alibaba is on track to drive its long-term revenue and earnings growth through the two strategic business pillars of “Consumption” and ”AI + Cloud”. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We reiterate our positive view on Alibaba, backed by: 1) strong cloud revenue growth outlook, aided by both increase in adoption of AI-related products and digitalization demand;2) solid e-commerce business development outlook, driven by increase in penetration of Quanzhantui, and cross-sell effect brought by the rapid development of Quick Commerce (QC) business, which we believe could help improve user stickiness and drive better customer management revenue (CMR) outlook over the medium to long term.With strong technological capability and abundant application scenario of AI, Alibaba is on track to drive its long-term revenue and earnings growth through the two strategic business pillars of “Consumption” and ”AI + Cloud”. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba (BABA US) - Cloud and E-Commerce Development Both in Good Shape; Reiterate BUY

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

Tariff Shock Sends HK Volatility Higher: Meituan (3690 HK) Looks Cheap, Alibaba (9988 HK) Stays Rich

Hong Kong volatility surged after U.S. tariff threats, with options pricing highlighting Meituan’s historically low implied volatility and elevated...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks

Friday’s sell-off hit China ADRs and pushed implied volatility higher, but not all stocks were affected equally. This Insight details the price...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (BABA US) - Quick Commerce Investment Peaked Out; Accelerating AI Adoption

For 2QFY26E (March year-end), we expect Alibaba Group Holding (Alibaba) to deliver revenue growth of 2% YoY, broadly inline with Bloomberg consensus

CMB International

Hong Kong 2025 Placements - Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

1H25 saw a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Alibaba (BABA US) - Cloud and E-Commerce Development Both in Good Shape; Reiterate BUY

We reiterate our positive view on Alibaba, backed by: 1) strong cloud revenue growth outlook, aided by both increase in adoption of AI-related...

CMB International

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