Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Country Garden Holdings Co / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Wish had more conviction for writing this update. The framework for determining if the bounce is durable or if a trend reversal has occurred is not working or is not clear.</li><li>Stocks that could see tailwinds and drivers for a sustained rally do not have the Volume to confirm the trend change.</li><li>At the same time, stocks with massive headwinds and structural issues have high Volumes.</li></ul>

Wish had more conviction for writing this update. The framework for determining if the bounce is durable or if a trend reversal has occurred is not working or is not clear.Stocks that could see tailwinds and drivers for a sustained rally do not have the Volume to confirm the trend change.At the same time, stocks with massive headwinds and structural issues have high Volumes.

Country Garden, China Resource Land, Alibaba, and HSBC

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 28th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in CCB, Alibaba, trip.com, and AIA.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 28th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in CCB, Alibaba, trip.com, and AIA.


HK Short Interest Weekly: CCB, Alibaba, Trip.com, AIA

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Nov 2021, PB Fintech raised around US$793m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.  The lock-up on its pre-IPO shareholder will expire soon.</li>
<li>The company operates two platforms: Policybazaar operates in India’s online insurance product and service industry; and Paisabazaar platform operates in India’s online credit industry. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.</li>
</ul>


In Nov 2021, PB Fintech raised around US$793m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.  The lock-up on its pre-IPO shareholder will expire soon.
The company operates two platforms: Policybazaar operates in India’s online insurance product and service industry; and Paisabazaar platform operates in India’s online credit industry. 
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.


PB Fintech (Policy Bazaar) Lockup Expiry - US$1bn+, Stock Down 60% but Everyone Is in the Money

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe the revenue growth will recover from zero in 1Q23 to 4% YoY in 2Q23.</li>
<li>We believe the operating margin will improve in the following two years because the company is cutting unprofitable businesses.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 43% according to other retailing giants’ price / sales ratios.</li>
</ul>


We believe the revenue growth will recover from zero in 1Q23 to 4% YoY in 2Q23.
We believe the operating margin will improve in the following two years because the company is cutting unprofitable businesses.
We set an upside of 43% according to other retailing giants’ price / sales ratios.


Alibaba (9988 HK) Pre-Earnings: Will See Growth Again, At Least 43% Upside

Equity Capital Markets

Five Star Business Finance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/five-star-business-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35238:1" rel="noopener">Five Star Business Finance (0958461D IN)</a> is looking to raise around US$250m in its upcoming India IPO. </li>
<li>Five-Star Business is a non-banking financial company (NBFC-ND-SI) that provides secured business loans to micro-entrepreneurs and self-employed individuals.</li>
<li>We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous note, in this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Five Star Business Finance (0958461D IN) is looking to raise around US$250m in its upcoming India IPO. 
Five-Star Business is a non-banking financial company (NBFC-ND-SI) that provides secured business loans to micro-entrepreneurs and self-employed individuals.
We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous note, in this note, we talk about valuations.


Five-Star Business IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

Country Garden, China Resource Land, Alibaba, and HSBC

Wish had more conviction for writing this update. The framework for determining if the bounce is durable or if a trend reversal has occurred is not...

Untying The Gordian Knot

HK Short Interest Weekly: CCB, Alibaba, Trip.com, AIA

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 28th and highlight short interest changes in CCB, Alibaba, trip.com,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

PB Fintech (Policy Bazaar) Lockup Expiry - US$1bn+, Stock Down 60% but Everyone Is in the Money

In Nov 2021, PB Fintech raised around US$793m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. The lock-up on its pre-IPO...

Sumeet Singh

Alibaba (9988 HK) Pre-Earnings: Will See Growth Again, At Least 43% Upside

We believe the revenue growth will recover from zero in 1Q23 to 4% YoY in 2Q23. We believe the operating margin will also improve. We set an upside...

Ming Lu

Five-Star Business IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

Five Star Business Finance is looking to raise around US$250m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we'll talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

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