Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity dropped sharply but net SOUTHBOUND buying remains very strong and very broad-based. </li>
<li>The trend continues to be net buying of tech though Friday saw a lot of profits taken in Tech names by SOUTHBOUND holders.</li>
<li>I expect HK-listed tech to continue getting bought. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don't compete in the US. Still. </li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity dropped sharply but net SOUTHBOUND buying remains very strong and very broad-based. 
The trend continues to be net buying of tech though Friday saw a lot of profits taken in Tech names by SOUTHBOUND holders.
I expect HK-listed tech to continue getting bought. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don't compete in the US. Still. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Nov 2024); Volumes Much Lower But Broad-Based Buying Continues

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BABA reported CY3Q24 top line, adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net profit (1.0%), (1.6%) and in-line vs. consensus. </li>
<li>CMR improved amid monetization changes that narrowed the growth gap with GMV, but also eliminated some low-single profit sellers from its GMV. </li>
<li>Cloud and overseas e-commerce revenue also saw good growth and improved profitability. All of BABA’s key businesses are sputtering to life while macro tailwinds are also favorable. </li>
</ul>


BABA reported CY3Q24 top line, adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net profit (1.0%), (1.6%) and in-line vs. consensus. 
CMR improved amid monetization changes that narrowed the growth gap with GMV, but also eliminated some low-single profit sellers from its GMV. 
Cloud and overseas e-commerce revenue also saw good growth and improved profitability. All of BABA’s key businesses are sputtering to life while macro tailwinds are also favorable. 


[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$120) Earnings Review]: Progress Made, Better Times Ahead

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity still high. Net buying very strong. 7 names traded more than US$1bn. Last week I said tech would continue to be bought. It was.</li>
<li>The trend continues to net sales of ETFs and high div SOEs. Net buying is very, very broad-based. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> is batted around like crazy.</li>
<li>I expect HK-listed tech to <em>continue</em> getting bought. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don't compete in the US.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity still high. Net buying very strong. 7 names traded more than US$1bn. Last week I said tech would continue to be bought. It was.
The trend continues to net sales of ETFs and high div SOEs. Net buying is very, very broad-based. Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) is batted around like crazy.
I expect HK-listed tech to continue getting bought. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don't compete in the US.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Nov 2024); Tech Bought, High-Div SOEs Sold or Ignored, Again

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Along with its fiscal 2024 results, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.</li>
<li>If the conversion is completed by the end of August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.</li>
<li>We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> capped at 8% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> indices.</li>
</ul>


Along with its fiscal 2024 results, Alibaba (9988 HK) announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.
If the conversion is completed by the end of August, Alibaba (9988 HK) could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.
We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) capped at 8% of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Total revenue grew slightly as we expected in our preview note.</li>
<li>The operating margin improved significantly, but this was due to the shrinks of non-cash items.</li>
<li>However, we believe Alibaba will benefit from the boycott against JD.com and the disposal of Sun Art.</li>
</ul>


Total revenue grew slightly as we expected in our preview note.
The operating margin improved significantly, but this was due to the shrinks of non-cash items.
However, we believe Alibaba will benefit from the boycott against JD.com and the disposal of Sun Art.


Alibaba (BABA US): 2Q25, Weak Quarter, But Waiting for Two Events to Benefit Top Line

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Nov 2024); Volumes Much Lower But Broad-Based Buying Continues

SOUTHBOUND flows dropped sharply on a gross basis to their lowest level in a few months but net buying continued. Tech continues to be flavour of...

Travis Lundy

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$120) Earnings Review]: Progress Made, Better Times Ahead

BABA's latest financial report shows improved performance across key businesses, with growth in cloud and overseas e-commerce revenue.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Nov 2024); Tech Bought, High-Div SOEs Sold or Ignored, Again

SOUTHBOUND continues to be a big net buyer of HK stocks. It is possible investors are looking to cheap tech, possible they are looking to buybacks....

Travis Lundy

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Alibaba expect to convert to a Primary Listing on the HKEX by end August. That could mean inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in September. With...

Brian Freitas

Alibaba (BABA US): 2Q25, Weak Quarter, But Waiting for Two Events to Benefit Top Line

Total revenue grew slightly and the margin improvement was due to the shrinks of non-cash items. However, we believe Alibaba will benefit from the...

Ming Lu

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52-week Range

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HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Nov 2024); Volumes Much Lower But Broad-Based Buying Continues

SOUTHBOUND flows dropped sharply on a gross basis to their lowest level in a few months but net buying continued. Tech continues to be flavour of...

Travis Lundy

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$120) Earnings Review]: Progress Made, Better Times Ahead

​BABA's latest financial report shows improved performance across key businesses, with growth in cloud and overseas e-commerce revenue.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Nov 2024); Tech Bought, High-Div SOEs Sold or Ignored, Again

SOUTHBOUND continues to be a big net buyer of HK stocks. It is possible investors are looking to cheap tech, possible they are looking to buybacks....

Travis Lundy

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Alibaba expect to convert to a Primary Listing on the HKEX by end August. That could mean inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in September. With...

Brian Freitas

Alibaba (BABA US): 2Q25, Weak Quarter, But Waiting for Two Events to Benefit Top Line

Total revenue grew slightly and the margin improvement was due to the shrinks of non-cash items. However, we believe Alibaba will benefit from the...

Ming Lu

BABA's latest financial report shows improved performance across key businesses, with growth in cloud and overseas e-commerce revenue.