Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 6th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Ping An, Catl, Cspc Pharma, Xpeng, Lenovo, Li Auto, Jd Health.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 6th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Ping An, Catl, Cspc Pharma, Xpeng, Lenovo, Li Auto, Jd Health.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Ping An, Catl, Cspc Pharma, Xpeng, Lenovo, Li Auto, Jd Health

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 5 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are capping changes for some stocks.</li>
<li>A lot of the adds have moved significantly in the last couple of days, so the impact over the next couple of days will be smaller.</li>
<li>There could be opportunities to trade the reversion strategy. Getting borrow may not be easy on some names.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are capping changes for some stocks.
A lot of the adds have moved significantly in the last couple of days, so the impact over the next couple of days will be smaller.
There could be opportunities to trade the reversion strategy. Getting borrow may not be easy on some names.


CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: 10 Changes & Big Impact

<ul>
<li>There could be 3 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are some fairly large capping changes for some stocks.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 4.9% and the round-trip trade is HK$5.4bn (US$694m). The impact on the deletes will be a lot larger than the impact on the adds.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the near-term, though the trade has been quite volatile over the medium term.</li>
</ul>


There could be 3 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are some fairly large capping changes for some stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.9% and the round-trip trade is HK$5.4bn (US$694m). The impact on the deletes will be a lot larger than the impact on the adds.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the near-term, though the trade has been quite volatile over the medium term.


CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Changes & US$700m Trade

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Bright Smart Securities And / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-and" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)</a> will benefit from Ant Financial's technology innovation capabilities, customer group, digitalisation, and cross-selling to over 640m of Alipay users.</li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a> having an average PER of 19x for 2020-2025, we use 15x for BSS after a conservative estimate of 50% earnings growth in 5 years. </li>
<li>We value BSS at HK$8.13, but this is a conservative estimate. Its earnings growth is likely to be faster than our forecast, given its better leverage on the new parent.  </li>
</ul>



Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK) will benefit from Ant Financial's technology innovation capabilities, customer group, digitalisation, and cross-selling to over 640m of Alipay users.
With Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) having an average PER of 19x for 2020-2025, we use 15x for BSS after a conservative estimate of 50% earnings growth in 5 years. 
We value BSS at HK$8.13, but this is a conservative estimate. Its earnings growth is likely to be faster than our forecast, given its better leverage on the new parent.  


Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>PAGD achieved a dual increase in revenue and profit in 25Q1, which was mainly driven by the revenue from F-end business and B-end corporate health management business (up 43% YoY).</li>
<li>We always question PAGD's capability of expanding new customers and business externally, apart from relying on the resource support of Ping A Group.This makes PAGD difficult to match high valuations.</li>
<li>Our forecast for 2025 revenue is RMB5.1 billion.If based on P/S of 3x, market value is RMB15.3 billion. Market value of RMB24 billion could be the peak of PAGD’s valuation</li>
</ul>


PAGD achieved a dual increase in revenue and profit in 25Q1, which was mainly driven by the revenue from F-end business and B-end corporate health management business (up 43% YoY).
We always question PAGD's capability of expanding new customers and business externally, apart from relying on the resource support of Ping A Group.This makes PAGD difficult to match high valuations.
Our forecast for 2025 revenue is RMB5.1 billion.If based on P/S of 3x, market value is RMB15.3 billion. Market value of RMB24 billion could be the peak of PAGD’s valuation


Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) 25Q1 Results - Concerns Behind and the Valuation Outlook

China

Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited is an integrated healthcare information and content service provider. The Company uses product identification, authentication, and tracking system data for its healthcare information.

Price Gauge
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Alibaba Health Information Tec (241 HK)

HK Short Interest Weekly: Ping An, Catl, Cspc Pharma, Xpeng, Lenovo, Li Auto, Jd Health

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 6th and highlight short interest changes in Ping An, Catl, Cspc Pharma,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: 10 Changes & Big Impact

There are 10 constituent changes in June and the flow and impact is pretty large. The adds have outperformed the deletes bigly over the last 2 days...

Brian Freitas

CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Changes & US$700m Trade

There could be 3 changes for the index in June. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.9% and the round-trip trade is US$694m. The forecast adds have...

Brian Freitas

Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value

Bright Smart benefits from Ant Financial's technology and customer base, with potentially faster-than-forecast growth. At a 50% 5-year growth and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) 25Q1 Results - Concerns Behind and the Valuation Outlook

PAGD sees performance growth in 25Q1 driven by F-end/B-end businesses, but questions remain about its ability to expand externally without Ping A...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Short Interest Weekly: Ping An, Catl, Cspc Pharma, Xpeng, Lenovo, Li Auto, Jd Health

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 6th and highlight short interest changes in Ping An, Catl, Cspc Pharma,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: 10 Changes & Big Impact

There are 10 constituent changes in June and the flow and impact is pretty large. The adds have outperformed the deletes bigly over the last 2 days...

Brian Freitas

CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Changes & US$700m Trade

There could be 3 changes for the index in June. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.9% and the round-trip trade is US$694m. The forecast adds have...

Brian Freitas

Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value

​Bright Smart benefits from Ant Financial's technology and customer base, with potentially faster-than-forecast growth. At a 50% 5-year growth and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) 25Q1 Results - Concerns Behind and the Valuation Outlook

​PAGD sees performance growth in 25Q1 driven by F-end/B-end businesses, but questions remain about its ability to expand externally without Ping A...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Bright Smart benefits from Ant Financial's technology and customer base, with potentially faster-than-forecast growth. At a 50% 5-year growth and...

PAGD sees performance growth in 25Q1 driven by F-end/B-end businesses, but questions remain about its ability to expand externally without Ping A...