Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to provide only short-term positive momentum.</li><li>However, the 2025E GDP growth outlook, projected at 2.8% (range: 2.3-3.3%), is seen as a negative guidance compared to the consensus estimate of 3.0%.</li><li>This reflects downside risks from global economic uncertainties, particularly in international trade, which is expected to be negatively impacted by Donald Trump's tariff hike policies. </li></ul>

KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to provide only short-term positive momentum.However, the 2025E GDP growth outlook, projected at 2.8% (range: 2.3-3.3%), is seen as a negative guidance compared to the consensus estimate of 3.0%.This reflects downside risks from global economic uncertainties, particularly in international trade, which is expected to be negatively impacted by Donald Trump's tariff hike policies. 

Economic Update: 3Q24 GDP Growth - Upbeat 3Q24 GDP Growth

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating, with a negative view on the fundamentals as the current stock price shows 11% downside from the 12M FWD fair value of Bt25.30, based on a required return of 9.1%.</li><li>There is also very limited tactical upside, given that the stock price has risen 14% QTD and is trading above the 6-month historical average.</li><li>A positive outlook is maintained for the performance over the next two years, with a strong EPS CAGR of +26% during 2024-26E, driven by a significant increase in land transfer revenue.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating, with a negative view on the fundamentals as the current stock price shows 11% downside from the 12M FWD fair value of Bt25.30, based on a required return of 9.1%.There is also very limited tactical upside, given that the stock price has risen 14% QTD and is trading above the 6-month historical average.A positive outlook is maintained for the performance over the next two years, with a strong EPS CAGR of +26% during 2024-26E, driven by a significant increase in land transfer revenue.

Amata Corporation - In-Line Profit; Concerns over Declining GPM for Industrial Estates

<ul><li>Given the high increase in 3Q24E presales, hitting a new quarterly record, with 9M24E presales reaching 2,000 rai, exceeding our previous estimates, we have raised our presale forecasts for 2024- 26E and increased the projected transfers due to the substantial backlog of 3,500 rai.</li><li>We estimate core profit for 2024-26E to grow strongly, with a CAGR of +26%, and have revised our fair value (FV) to Bt25.30 (previously at Bt21.50), based on a required return of 9.1% (8.0% previously).</li><li>However, the market price has already risen, having priced in the significant presales increase to a certain degree. </li></ul>

Given the high increase in 3Q24E presales, hitting a new quarterly record, with 9M24E presales reaching 2,000 rai, exceeding our previous estimates, we have raised our presale forecasts for 2024- 26E and increased the projected transfers due to the substantial backlog of 3,500 rai.We estimate core profit for 2024-26E to grow strongly, with a CAGR of +26%, and have revised our fair value (FV) to Bt25.30 (previously at Bt21.50), based on a required return of 9.1% (8.0% previously).However, the market price has already risen, having priced in the significant presales increase to a certain degree. 

AMATA CORPORATION - Expect Record-High Presales in 3Q24E, with Further Growth in 2025E

<ul><li>We downgrade our rating to Neutral (from Outperform), with a new 12M FV of Bt21.50 (down from Bt28.30) following the downward revisions to our 2024-25E earnings forecasts, though we maintain the required return at 8%.</li><li>The valuation metrics indicate that the recent share price increase has reduced the stock's attractiveness, reflecting significant downside of -9%.</li><li>While the tactical upside is limited, the long- term growth prospects remain strong, with expected 2024-26E earnings growth at a CAGR of +11%.</li></ul>

We downgrade our rating to Neutral (from Outperform), with a new 12M FV of Bt21.50 (down from Bt28.30) following the downward revisions to our 2024-25E earnings forecasts, though we maintain the required return at 8%.The valuation metrics indicate that the recent share price increase has reduced the stock's attractiveness, reflecting significant downside of -9%.While the tactical upside is limited, the long- term growth prospects remain strong, with expected 2024-26E earnings growth at a CAGR of +11%.

Amata Corporation - Revised Down Forecasts Given Slow Transfers and a Low GPM from IE Business

<ul><li>KTX sees potential upside to our presales projection, and the land transfer duration is likely to be shortened. The 2Q24E core profit is expected to have grown well YoY.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is attractive, and the long-term earnings prospects are strong; however, the tactical upside is very limited.</li><li>We therefore maintain an Outperform rating, with a 12M FV of Bt28.30 (vs. Bt28.00 previously), based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 8% following the adjustment to the beta (in line with the adjustments to our macroeconomic variables).</li></ul>

KTX sees potential upside to our presales projection, and the land transfer duration is likely to be shortened. The 2Q24E core profit is expected to have grown well YoY.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is attractive, and the long-term earnings prospects are strong; however, the tactical upside is very limited.We therefore maintain an Outperform rating, with a 12M FV of Bt28.30 (vs. Bt28.00 previously), based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 8% following the adjustment to the beta (in line with the adjustments to our macroeconomic variables).

Amata Corporation - Expect 2Q24E Earnings to Increase YoY; Possible Upside to Presales

Thailand

Amata Corporation Public Company Limited develops industrial estates primarily served for manufacturing plants and factories. The Company acquires land and develops essential infrastructure and facilities ready for industrialized operations. Ameta also has overseas investments in Vietnam.

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Amata Corp Public (AMATA TB)

Economic Update: 3Q24 GDP Growth - Upbeat 3Q24 GDP Growth

KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to...

Krungthai XSpring

Amata Corporation - In-Line Profit; Concerns over Declining GPM for Industrial Estates

We maintain a Neutral rating, with a negative view on the fundamentals as the current stock price shows 11% downside from the 12M FWD fair value of...

Krungthai XSpring

AMATA CORPORATION - Expect Record-High Presales in 3Q24E, with Further Growth in 2025E

The current valuation indicates downside of approximately -11% alongside very limited upside tactically. Hence, we maintain a Neutral rating.

Krungthai XSpring

Amata Corporation - Revised Down Forecasts Given Slow Transfers and a Low GPM from IE Business

The valuation metrics indicate that the recent share price increase has reduced the stock's attractiveness, reflecting significant downside of -9%.

Krungthai XSpring

Amata Corporation - Expect 2Q24E Earnings to Increase YoY; Possible Upside to Presales

KTX sees potential upside to our presales projection, and the land transfer duration is likely to be shortened. The 2Q24E core profit is expected...

Krungthai XSpring

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