Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>About a week ago, it was announced that Chairman's elder daughter Min-Jung Suh will take a long one year leave of absence.</li>
<li>Chairman Suh is very dissatisfied with the company's results in the past three years and wants to shake up the company to improve its operations, in our view. </li>
<li>Our base case NAV valuation of Amorepacific Group (002790 KS) is 39,611 won, which is 29% higher than current price.</li>
</ul>


About a week ago, it was announced that Chairman's elder daughter Min-Jung Suh will take a long one year leave of absence.
Chairman Suh is very dissatisfied with the company's results in the past three years and wants to shake up the company to improve its operations, in our view. 
Our base case NAV valuation of Amorepacific Group (002790 KS) is 39,611 won, which is 29% higher than current price.


Amorepacific Group: SoTP Valuation and Meaning of Min-Jung Suh Taking One Year Leave of Absence

Amorepacific Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) is likely to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the return of Chinese group tours in Korea.</li>
<li>Now that the Chinese government is allowing group tours to South Korea, this will likely lead to a sharp improvement in the company's sales and profits in 2023-2024.</li>
<li>We expect the consensus to raise sales estimates of Amorepacific Corp by about 3-5%+ and operating profit estimates by 20-30%+ in 2023 and 2024. </li>
</ul>


Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) is likely to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the return of Chinese group tours in Korea.
Now that the Chinese government is allowing group tours to South Korea, this will likely lead to a sharp improvement in the company's sales and profits in 2023-2024.
We expect the consensus to raise sales estimates of Amorepacific Corp by about 3-5%+ and operating profit estimates by 20-30%+ in 2023 and 2024. 


Amorepacific Corp: Return of the Korean Cosmetics King With End of Ban on Chinese Group Tours

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In response to media speculation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> has clarified that Reinold Geiger, the Chairman and the largest shareholder, is contemplating a possible transaction through a voluntary general offer.</li>
<li>However, the rumoured offer of HK$35 per share is false. Mr Geiger has confirmed that the potential offer price would be no less than HK$26.00 per share.</li>
<li>The floor price of HK$26 is light and needs a bump (towards HK$30), particularly if Mr Geiger wants 95% of voting rights to exercise the right of compulsory acquisition (squeeze-out).</li>
</ul>


In response to media speculation, L'Occitane (973 HK) has clarified that Reinold Geiger, the Chairman and the largest shareholder, is contemplating a possible transaction through a voluntary general offer.
However, the rumoured offer of HK$35 per share is false. Mr Geiger has confirmed that the potential offer price would be no less than HK$26.00 per share.
The floor price of HK$26 is light and needs a bump (towards HK$30), particularly if Mr Geiger wants 95% of voting rights to exercise the right of compulsory acquisition (squeeze-out).


L’Occitane (973 HK): Board Updates on the Potential Offer Structure and Price

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 3Q 2023.</li>
<li>Of the 38 pair trades, 22 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos YTD and 16 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.</li>
<li>We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 3Q 2023.
Of the 38 pair trades, 22 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos YTD and 16 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.
We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2023

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>AmoreG has been closely moving relative to Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) over the past few months, but starting from mid-April, it rapidly entered a downward diversion phase.</li>
<li>It appears to have experienced greater sensitivity towards the recent tensions in Sino-Korean relations, possibly due to its higher price correlation with the Chinese market.</li>
<li>The issue lies in the timing of entry aimed at reversion, and there may be one upcoming passive inflow event that we should pay attention to in this regard.</li>
</ul>


AmoreG has been closely moving relative to Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) over the past few months, but starting from mid-April, it rapidly entered a downward diversion phase.
It appears to have experienced greater sensitivity towards the recent tensions in Sino-Korean relations, possibly due to its higher price correlation with the Chinese market.
The issue lies in the timing of entry aimed at reversion, and there may be one upcoming passive inflow event that we should pay attention to in this regard.


Timing Stub Trade on Amorepacific Group with a Key Passive Inflow Event Coming Up

South Korea

Amorepacific Corporation develops, manufactures, and exports skin care, make-up, and fragrance products. The Company also produces and markets personal care and health-related products, such as shampoos, soaps, toothpastes, and health teas. Amorepacific markets its products worldwide.

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Amorepacific Corporation (090430 KS)

Amorepacific Group: SoTP Valuation and Meaning of Min-Jung Suh Taking One Year Leave of Absence

Amorepacific Group Chairman's elder daughter is taking a long one year leave of absence. Chairman Suh is very dissatisfied with the company's...

Douglas Kim

Amorepacific Corp: Return of the Korean Cosmetics King With End of Ban on Chinese Group Tours

We expect the consensus to raise sales estimates of Amorepacific Corp by about 3-5%+ and operating profit estimates by 20-30%+ in 2023 and 2024.

Douglas Kim

L’Occitane (973 HK): Board Updates on the Potential Offer Structure and Price

Reinold Geiger is contemplating a possible transaction through a VGO at a floor offer price of HK$26. The floor price is light if Mr Geiger wants...

Arun George

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2023

In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 3Q 2023. We highlight 38 pair trades that...

Douglas Kim

Timing Stub Trade on Amorepacific Group with a Key Passive Inflow Event Coming Up

This post examines the potential entry timing for stub trading on Amorepacific Group with an important passive inflow event coming up.

Sanghyun Park

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