IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> aims to complete the IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a> in the next 12 to 18 months. Alibaba holds a 67% stake in Cainiao. </li>
<li>Cainiao's revenue growth, while on a declining trend, remains in double digits. Encouragingly. narrowing losses set a path to profitability.</li>
<li>On 30 March, Bloomberg reported that Cainiao is currently valued at more than US$20 billion. Our valuation analysis suggests that such a valuation is justifiable.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) aims to complete the IPO of Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) in the next 12 to 18 months. Alibaba holds a 67% stake in Cainiao. 
Cainiao's revenue growth, while on a declining trend, remains in double digits. Encouragingly. narrowing losses set a path to profitability.
On 30 March, Bloomberg reported that Cainiao is currently valued at more than US$20 billion. Our valuation analysis suggests that such a valuation is justifiable.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Brilliance China Automotive / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. </li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. 
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

<ul>
<li>We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.</li>
<li>Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.
Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.</li>
<li>Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.
Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gogox-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35556:1" rel="noopener">GoGoX Holdings (GOGO HK)</a> is a major online intra-city logistics platform in Asia. It has passed the listing hearing for an HKEx IPO to raise US$100-150 million.   </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gogox-ipo-initiation-a-less-than-perfect-delivery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:64922" rel="noopener">GOGOX IPO Initiation: A Less than Perfect Delivery</a>, we noted that as the losses are expected to persist over the next three years, we would avoid the IPO.</li>
<li>In this note, we examine the PHIP for the 2021 results and recent developments. The fundamentals remain unattractive and we would give the IPO a pass. </li>
</ul>



GoGoX Holdings (GOGO HK) is a major online intra-city logistics platform in Asia. It has passed the listing hearing for an HKEx IPO to raise US$100-150 million.   
In GOGOX IPO Initiation: A Less than Perfect Delivery, we noted that as the losses are expected to persist over the next three years, we would avoid the IPO.
In this note, we examine the PHIP for the 2021 results and recent developments. The fundamentals remain unattractive and we would give the IPO a pass. 


China

ANE (Cayman) Inc. operates as an integrated logistics company. The Company provides sorting, line-haul transportation, pickup and dispatch services, and other services. ANE (Cayman) offers services in China.

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ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)

Alibaba’s Cainiao IPO: The First Look

Alibaba has submitted a listing plan to HKEx to spin-off Cainiao. After the spin-off, Alibaba will hold over 50% of outstanding shares. The share...

Arun George

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

We forecast 44 adds/19 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 37 adds/deletes for Southbound Stock Connect. There could be more Connect changes...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

We see 3 inclusions for the index in Dec, and then 26 adds/16 deletions in March. Following the March rebal, we see 22 adds/37 deletions for Stock...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

There could be 3 adds in December while there will be MANY more changes in March. The adds should outnumber the deletes, but there will be many...

Brian Freitas

GOGOX IPO: Growth at All Costs

GOGOX has passed the listing hearing for an HKEx IPO to raise US$100-150m. The fundamentals remain unattractive and we would give the IPO a pass.

Arun George

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