Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight rates and carrier profitability had improved sharply in the months following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18689" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18689:1">Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd (117930 KS)</a>'s August 2016 bankruptcy, and that further fundamental improvements would be much harder to come by. About six months after turning cautious on container shipping, we remain negative on the sector, and we believe 2018 will turn out to be worse…

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight rates and carrier profitability had improved sharply in the months following Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd (117930 KS)'s August 2016 bankruptcy, and that further fundamental improvements would be much harder to come by. About six months after turning cautious on container shipping, we remain negative on the sector, and we believe 2018 will turn out to be worse…

Container Shipping Sector: Six Months of Declining Share Prices Explained in Three Charts

Equity analyst - Containers, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Nilesh Tiwary

Equity analyst - Containers

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

AP Moller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moller Maersk reported its 4Q17 and FY17 numbers on 9 February 2018. The company’s underlying profit from continuing operations stood at USD 356m. However, after including the impact from the discontinued operations, total losses turned out to be USD 1.2bn (DMFR’s loss estimate USD 1.03bn). Maersk Line reported a full-year profit of USD 541m for FY17, slightly lower than our estimate of USD 596m. After initially reacting negatively on Friday, the stock at the time of writing today was up ~3%…

AP Moller Maersk reported its 4Q17 and FY17 numbers on 9 February 2018. The company’s underlying profit from continuing operations stood at USD 356m. However, after including the impact from the discontinued operations, total losses turned out to be USD 1.2bn (DMFR’s loss estimate USD 1.03bn). Maersk Line reported a full-year profit of USD 541m for FY17, slightly lower than our estimate of USD 596m. After initially reacting negatively on Friday, the stock at the time of writing today was up ~3%…

AP Moller Maersk – Results on Expected Lines

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

Reiterating our neutral view with a 6% cut in fair value: APMM’s share price has mostly been on a free fall since July 2017. As a reminder, our Neutral case was based on our view that the lower-than-expected spot rates would find its way into the East-West contract rates, thus limiting Maersk Line’s profitability in 2018. While this is true for all other operators in our coverage list, APMM is also grappling with other issues, including divestment of energy assets and the acquisition of Hamburg…

Reiterating our neutral view with a 6% cut in fair value: APMM’s share price has mostly been on a free fall since July 2017. As a reminder, our Neutral case was based on our view that the lower-than-expected spot rates would find its way into the East-West contract rates, thus limiting Maersk Line’s profitability in 2018. While this is true for all other operators in our coverage list, APMM is also grappling with other issues, including divestment of energy assets and the acquisition of Hamburg…

AP Moller Maersk - Sometime to Go Before Hitting Full Throttle

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

SummaryThe major indicators of container shipping in 2017 remained more firm than in 2016. The y/y comparisons for many data sets depict robust improvement. However, the outlook for 2018 is mixed. The supply-demand balance will improve slightly, demand growth will continue to be strong, and freight rates and the profits of carriers will strengthen at lower-than-expected rates as several temporary factors create a bump on the road to recovery. The creation of bigger alliances, and the escalation of…

SummaryThe major indicators of container shipping in 2017 remained more firm than in 2016. The y/y comparisons for many data sets depict robust improvement. However, the outlook for 2018 is mixed.  The supply-demand balance will improve slightly, demand growth will continue to be strong, and freight rates and the profits of carriers will strengthen at lower-than-expected rates as several temporary factors create a bump on the road to recovery.  The creation of bigger alliances, and the escalation of…

Container Shipping 2018 - Demand Buoyancy Drives Positive Outlook

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

People who bought China, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5891" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1">Nvidia Corp (NVDA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/438" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1">iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM US)</a> somewhere in 2017 performed well. A bit below the radar is that commodities started doing well too from mid-17. There is more to come. A recent chance to add right around my EV pieces a month ago were materials like aluminum.My core 2017 into 2018 stocks are: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/929" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1">Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd (2343 HK)</a> (continued accumulate on pullbacks, most recently a little more at HK$1.6 levels, recall some lightening…

People who bought China, Nvidia Corp (NVDA US), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM US) somewhere in 2017 performed well. A bit below the radar is that commodities started doing well too from mid-17. There is more to come. A recent chance to add right around my EV pieces a month ago were materials like aluminum.My core 2017 into 2018 stocks are: Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd (2343 HK) (continued accumulate on pullbacks, most recently a little more at HK$1.6 levels, recall some lightening…

Strategy: Around the Horn 2018, the Long and Short of It. Pacific Basin Initial Notes

Denmark

A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S is a conglomerate with diversified holdings. The Company operates a fleet including container vessels, tankers, supply ships, special vessels, APM terminials, and oil drilling rigs.  A.P. Moeller-Maersk also operates industrial business and explores for and produces oil and gas. The Company is active worldwide.

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AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKB DC)

AP Moller Maersk – Results on Expected Lines

AP Moller Maersk reported its 4Q17 and FY17 numbers on 9 February 2018. The company’s underlying profit from continuing operations stood at USD...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

AP Moller Maersk - Sometime to Go Before Hitting Full Throttle

Reiterating our neutral view with a 6% cut in fair value: APMM’s share price has mostly been on a free fall since July 2017. As a reminder, our...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Shipping 2018 - Demand Buoyancy Drives Positive Outlook

SummaryThe major indicators of container shipping in 2017 remained more firm than in 2016. The y/y comparisons for many data sets depict robust...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Strategy: Around the Horn 2018, the Long and Short of It. Pacific Basin Initial Notes

People who bought China, Nvidia Corp (NVDA US), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM US) somewhere in 2017 performed well. A bit below the...

Charles De Trenck

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Container Shipping Sector: Six Months of Declining Share Prices Explained in Three Charts

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight...

Daniel Hellberg

AP Moller Maersk – Results on Expected Lines

AP Moller Maersk reported its 4Q17 and FY17 numbers on 9 February 2018. The company’s underlying profit from continuing operations stood at USD...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

AP Moller Maersk - Sometime to Go Before Hitting Full Throttle

Reiterating our neutral view with a 6% cut in fair value: APMM’s share price has mostly been on a free fall since July 2017. As a reminder, our...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Shipping 2018 - Demand Buoyancy Drives Positive Outlook

SummaryThe major indicators of container shipping in 2017 remained more firm than in 2016. The y/y comparisons for many data sets depict robust...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Strategy: Around the Horn 2018, the Long and Short of It. Pacific Basin Initial Notes

People who bought China, Nvidia Corp (NVDA US), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM US) somewhere in 2017 performed well. A bit below the...

Charles De Trenck