Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect Thai inflation to continue easing from May to August, driven down by the high base effect and lower oil prices.</li><li>The Ministry of Commerce (MoC) anticipates 2023E inflation at a mean of +2.2% YoY (range of 1.7-2.7%), slowing considerably from +6.1% YoY in 2022.</li><li>We expect the MPC to continue raising the policy interest rate by 25 bps to 2.00% in the meeting on May 31, 2023, which should be the last rate hike in this upcycle. </li></ul>

We expect Thai inflation to continue easing from May to August, driven down by the high base effect and lower oil prices.The Ministry of Commerce (MoC) anticipates 2023E inflation at a mean of +2.2% YoY (range of 1.7-2.7%), slowing considerably from +6.1% YoY in 2022.We expect the MPC to continue raising the policy interest rate by 25 bps to 2.00% in the meeting on May 31, 2023, which should be the last rate hike in this upcycle. 

Special Report: Inflation Remains on a Downtrend

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maintain our BUY rating with a new TP of Bt13.90, implying 7.4xPE’23E , +1SD from its five years trading average, to reflect higher project launches value in 2023.</li>
<li>3Q22 earnings  expand YoY AP reported 3Q22’s net profit of Bt1.4bn (+37.6%YoY, -9%QoQ), in line with our forecast and market expectation</li>
<li>The YoY growth of net profit supported by (1) Higher revenue recognition of real estate sales to Bt8.7bn(+25.6%YoY)  mainly from transfers of existing and new launches</li>
</ul>


Maintain our BUY rating with a new TP of Bt13.90, implying 7.4xPE’23E , +1SD from its five years trading average, to reflect higher project launches value in 2023.
3Q22 earnings  expand YoY AP reported 3Q22’s net profit of Bt1.4bn (+37.6%YoY, -9%QoQ), in line with our forecast and market expectation
The YoY growth of net profit supported by (1) Higher revenue recognition of real estate sales to Bt8.7bn(+25.6%YoY)  mainly from transfers of existing and new launches


<ul>
<li>We initiate coverage of APwith a BUY rating at a TP of Bt12.9,based on 7.0xPE23,or +0.5SD of its 5-year trading average.Our rating reflects high potential growth in the low-rise segment</li>
<li>High potential growth in long term AP has a high potential to expand its revenue in the long term,backed by(1)strong presales momentum,especially in the low-rise segment,where it is the leader</li>
<li>New high for project launches to support 22-24E earnings AP plans to launch 60 projects worth Bt75bn in 2022 (a new high), composed of 52 low-rise projects, 5 high-rise projects</li>
</ul>


We initiate coverage of APwith a BUY rating at a TP of Bt12.9,based on 7.0xPE23,or +0.5SD of its 5-year trading average.Our rating reflects high potential growth in the low-rise segment
High potential growth in long term AP has a high potential to expand its revenue in the long term,backed by(1)strong presales momentum,especially in the low-rise segment,where it is the leader
New high for project launches to support 22-24E earnings AP plans to launch 60 projects worth Bt75bn in 2022 (a new high), composed of 52 low-rise projects, 5 high-rise projects


Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Headquartered in Singapore, SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia) is an investment bank focusing on emerging growth companies across Asia, providing a full suite of investment banking services, including corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions advisory, equity capital markets, institutional equities sales and trading and equities research.

SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ec-world-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22842" rel="noopener">EC World Reit (ECWREIT SP)</a> 4Q21 DPU +7.7% YoY; Driven largely by absence of DI retention and strengthening RMB</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ara-us-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28048" rel="noopener">ARA US Hospitality Trust (ARAUS SP)</a> 2H21 DPU of US$0.36c declared; Road to recovery continues</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-hampshire-us-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28874" rel="noopener">United Hampshire US REIT (UHU SP)</a> 2H21 DPU +0.7% YoY; Portfolio valuation rose 3.7% YoY, divesting of 2 Self Storage properties</li></ul>

EC World Reit (ECWREIT SP) 4Q21 DPU +7.7% YoY; Driven largely by absence of DI retention and strengthening RMBARA US Hospitality Trust (ARAUS SP) 2H21 DPU of US$0.36c declared; Road to recovery continuesUnited Hampshire US REIT (UHU SP) 2H21 DPU +0.7% YoY; Portfolio valuation rose 3.7% YoY, divesting of 2 Self Storage properties

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (24Feb22) - ECWREIT Driven by Absence of DI Retention

We maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt9.2 based on 7.5xPE’21E, the average of top 10 stocks in the Thai Real Estate sector.<ul>
<li>ORI has 3Q20 presales of Bt7.5bn (+14%QoQ), better than market expectation. We foresee presales momentum to speed up in 4Q20 through aggressive new projects launch in 4Q20.</li>
<li>We expect 3Q20 earnings to stay flat YoY as there is no transfer of high value projects. However, we expect earnings to grow strongly both YoY and QoQ in 4Q20 driven by (1) revenue recognition from secured backlog over Bt7bn and (2) aggressive launch of new four low-rise projects worth Bt4.9bn.</li>
</ul>We still like this stock on the backs of; (1) Secured backlog of Bt20bn to back 2021 earnings recovery; (2) Solid presales momentum; (3) Attractive dividend yield of 4%-6% in 2020E-21E.

We maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt9.2 based on 7.5xPE’21E, the average of top 10 stocks in the Thai Real Estate sector.
ORI has 3Q20 presales of Bt7.5bn (+14%QoQ), better than market expectation. We foresee presales momentum to speed up in 4Q20 through aggressive new projects launch in 4Q20.
We expect 3Q20 earnings to stay flat YoY as there is no transfer of high value projects. However, we expect earnings to grow strongly both YoY and QoQ in 4Q20 driven by (1) revenue recognition from secured backlog over Bt7bn and (2) aggressive launch of new four low-rise projects worth Bt4.9bn.
We still like this stock on the backs of; (1) Secured backlog of Bt20bn to back 2021 earnings recovery; (2) Solid presales momentum; (3) Attractive dividend yield of 4%-6% in 2020E-21E.

ORI: Expect Flat 3Q20 Earnings but Strong Recovery in 4Q20

Thailand

AP Thailand PCL is a property development company. The Company develops residential property projects in Bangkok areas as well as manufactures and distributes precast concrete products.

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AP Thailand PCL (AP TB)

Special Report: Inflation Remains on a Downtrend

The Ministry of Commerce (MoC) anticipates 2023E inflation at a mean of +2.2% YoY (range of 1.7-2.7%), slowing considerably from +6.1% YoY in 2022.

Krungthai XSpring

AP : Earnings Remain Strong in 3Q22

Maintain our BUY rating with a new TP of Bt13.90, implying 7.4xPE’23E , +1SD from its five years trading average, to reflect higher project...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

AP : High Growth Potential in Low-Rises

We initiate coverage of AP with a BUY rating at a TP of Bt12.9, based on 7.0xPE23, or +0.5SD of its 5-year trading average. Our rating reflects...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (24Feb22) - ECWREIT Driven by Absence of DI Retention

ARAUS back to declaring dividend; UHU portfolio valuation rising; LHN another Co-living expansion; RGE buys Tangling SC; HOBEE buys London office;...

SCCM Asia Research

ORI: Expect Flat 3Q20 Earnings but Strong Recovery in 4Q20

3Q20 ORI presales better than market expectation. We foresee presales momentum to speed up in 4Q20 through aggressive new projects launch in 4Q20.

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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