Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>AAPL has been an underperformer since its last earnings report which stands out against the backdrop of a stock that rarely misses earnings expectations.</li>
<li>We take a closer look at implied volatility and the earnings-day move priced by the options market.   </li>
<li>Volatility metrics and historical earnings reactions are analyzed to help frame expectations.  </li>
</ul>


AAPL has been an underperformer since its last earnings report which stands out against the backdrop of a stock that rarely misses earnings expectations.
We take a closer look at implied volatility and the earnings-day move priced by the options market.   
Volatility metrics and historical earnings reactions are analyzed to help frame expectations.  


AAPL Q3 Earnings: Misses Are Rare, But Performance a Red Flag

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>IDC and Counterpoint released their 2Q25 smartphone estimates. Smartphone units increased 1-2% YoY. Best performer: Samsung +8% YoY, but this didn’t help 2Q operating profits. Vivo +5%, Apple +2%.</li>
<li>The smartphone market is desperately flat – or in slow decline. Smartphone is 76% of revenues for Qualcomm, 57% for Mediatek, 50% Apple and Xiaomi, 35% Samsung, 31% TSMC. Problem?</li>
<li>For Semiconductor firms (QCOM, MTK, TSM), chips ASP increases 10-15% at each generation, between node migration (N3, N2) and increasing AI functionalities. For hardware vendors (Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi), it’s worse.</li>
</ul>


IDC and Counterpoint released their 2Q25 smartphone estimates. Smartphone units increased 1-2% YoY. Best performer: Samsung +8% YoY, but this didn’t help 2Q operating profits. Vivo +5%, Apple +2%.
The smartphone market is desperately flat – or in slow decline. Smartphone is 76% of revenues for Qualcomm, 57% for Mediatek, 50% Apple and Xiaomi, 35% Samsung, 31% TSMC. Problem?
For Semiconductor firms (QCOM, MTK, TSM), chips ASP increases 10-15% at each generation, between node migration (N3, N2) and increasing AI functionalities. For hardware vendors (Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi), it’s worse.


Podcast dissecting business, technology & media, Analyse Asia

Analyse Asia with Bernard Leong

Podcast dissecting business, technology & media

Analyse Asia

The premiere weekly podcast dissecting the pulse of business, technology & media in Asia. Hear our host interviewing leading journalists, senior executives, respectable authors & thinkers, entrepreneurs & thought leaders to discuss the most important issues that move and shake the business landscape in the Asia Pacific. The show is originally created and hosted by Bernard Leong.

<ul><li>ndia does not have a top-down method for executing a five year plan like China does</li><li>hina's supply chain is vast and highly competitive, with India unlikely to replicate its success</li><li>hina wants technology transfer to be one-way gate, inhibiting India's ability to compete</li><li>atrick Magee studied religion before becoming a financial journalist and eventually writing about Apple's dependence on China</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

ndia does not have a top-down method for executing a five year plan like China doeshina's supply chain is vast and highly competitive, with India unlikely to replicate its successhina wants technology transfer to be one-way gate, inhibiting India's ability to competeatrick Magee studied religion before becoming a financial journalist and eventually writing about Apple's dependence on ChinaThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

How Apple Accidentally Built China's Tech Superpower and Can't Escape with Patrick McGee

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Apple failed to deliver on the highly anticipated Siri makeover, noting that it didn't meet their quality standards and effectively pushing it out for another full year </li>
<li>Internal rivalries, divided opinions on the direction AI should take, organizational restructuring, unwillingness to do meaningful acquisitions would all appear to be contributing to Apple's AI woes</li>
<li>Apple's peers are advancing their AI ambitions at warp speed, investing heavily, taking bold risks and mostly delivering on their promises. Apple is the polar opposite. What's another year? Failure.</li>
</ul>


Apple failed to deliver on the highly anticipated Siri makeover, noting that it didn't meet their quality standards and effectively pushing it out for another full year 
Internal rivalries, divided opinions on the direction AI should take, organizational restructuring, unwillingness to do meaningful acquisitions would all appear to be contributing to Apple's AI woes
Apple's peers are advancing their AI ambitions at warp speed, investing heavily, taking bold risks and mostly delivering on their promises. Apple is the polar opposite. What's another year? Failure.


<ul>
<li>How many times can Apple management say “delightful” when they have nothing to say? WWDC25 highlighted a bunch of small software tweaks, mostly “new designs” and nothing on AI. </li>
<li>The air pocket continues: very low growth in hardware categories, potentially large negative consequence of the Epic lawsuit, no AI roadmap.   </li>
<li>Consensus expects revenue growth for FY26 and that’s very questionable. The stock trades at 28x FY25 EPS, 26x FY26 with the only driver being share buybacks. Avoid!</li>
</ul>


How many times can Apple management say “delightful” when they have nothing to say? WWDC25 highlighted a bunch of small software tweaks, mostly “new designs” and nothing on AI. 
The air pocket continues: very low growth in hardware categories, potentially large negative consequence of the Epic lawsuit, no AI roadmap.   
Consensus expects revenue growth for FY26 and that’s very questionable. The stock trades at 28x FY25 EPS, 26x FY26 with the only driver being share buybacks. Avoid!


Apple WWDC25: Nothing Announcements, and Nothing on AI.

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

AAPL Q3 Earnings: Misses Are Rare, But Performance a Red Flag

Despite its history of clean earnings, AAPL enters this report with flat returns and mixed signals from the options market.

John Ley

Smartphone 2Q25: Boring Boring

2Q25 smartphone estimates show slight YoY increase in units, but market is flat or declining. Semiconductor firms see ASP increases, while...

Nicolas Baratte

How Apple Accidentally Built China's Tech Superpower and Can't Escape with Patrick McGee

In summary, "Apple in China" explores Apple's manufacturing dependency, Magee's career journey, and the importance of diverse experiences in...

Analyse Asia with Bernard Leong

Apple Intelligence. What's Another Year?

Apple's peers are advancing their AI ambitions at warp speed, investing heavily, taking bold risks and mostly delivering on their promises. Apple...

William Keating

Apple WWDC25: Nothing Announcements, and Nothing on AI.

Apple's lackluster WWDC25 highlights small software tweaks, no AI focus. Stock trading at high multiples with only driver being share buybacks....

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

AAPL Q3 Earnings: Misses Are Rare, But Performance a Red Flag

Despite its history of clean earnings, AAPL enters this report with flat returns and mixed signals from the options market.

John Ley

Smartphone 2Q25: Boring Boring

​2Q25 smartphone estimates show slight YoY increase in units, but market is flat or declining. Semiconductor firms see ASP increases, while...

Nicolas Baratte

How Apple Accidentally Built China's Tech Superpower and Can't Escape with Patrick McGee

In summary, "Apple in China" explores Apple's manufacturing dependency, Magee's career journey, and the importance of diverse experiences in...

Analyse Asia with Bernard Leong

Apple Intelligence. What's Another Year?

Apple's peers are advancing their AI ambitions at warp speed, investing heavily, taking bold risks and mostly delivering on their promises. Apple...

William Keating

Apple WWDC25: Nothing Announcements, and Nothing on AI.

​Apple's lackluster WWDC25 highlights small software tweaks, no AI focus. Stock trading at high multiples with only driver being share buybacks....

Nicolas Baratte

2Q25 smartphone estimates show slight YoY increase in units, but market is flat or declining. Semiconductor firms see ASP increases, while...

Apple's lackluster WWDC25 highlights small software tweaks, no AI focus. Stock trading at high multiples with only driver being share buybacks....