Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,409 points (75-day EMA/1,416 points) and the support at 1,390 points/1,387 points (25-day EMA).</li><li>The index is still moving in an upward direction, having continued to hit higher highs and higher lows for the fourth consecutive day and successfully breaching the 25-day and 50-day short-term moving averages.</li><li>The target is to test the previous resistance at 1,416 /1,438 points, respectively.</li></ul>

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,409 points (75-day EMA/1,416 points) and the support at 1,390 points/1,387 points (25-day EMA).The index is still moving in an upward direction, having continued to hit higher highs and higher lows for the fourth consecutive day and successfully breaching the 25-day and 50-day short-term moving averages.The target is to test the previous resistance at 1,416 /1,438 points, respectively.

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Thailand has finally had Mr. Sretha Thavisin as the 30th Prime Minister (PM) of Thailand on 22-August.</li>
<li>The PTP decided to betray its voters to cross  the aisle to join the conservative side.</li>
<li>We believe the potential surge in the Thai stock performance should be the time to de-risk.</li>
</ul>


Thailand has finally had Mr. Sretha Thavisin as the 30th Prime Minister (PM) of Thailand on 22-August.
The PTP decided to betray its voters to cross  the aisle to join the conservative side.
We believe the potential surge in the Thai stock performance should be the time to de-risk.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The market cap review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> ends in 6 trading days.</li>
<li>Following the market consultation and reduction in the turnover ratio, there could be four changes to the index. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">DTAC</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">TRUE</a> merger could result in another inclusion in Q1 2023.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the December rebalance is 8.1% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 7.4bn. More than 1x ADV to trade on most stocks.</li>
</ul>


The market cap review period for the December rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) ends in 6 trading days.
Following the market consultation and reduction in the turnover ratio, there could be four changes to the index. The DTAC/TRUE merger could result in another inclusion in Q1 2023.
Estimated one-way turnover at the December rebalance is 8.1% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 7.4bn. More than 1x ADV to trade on most stocks.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in December

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

Asset World Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The company report 3Q22 net profit at Bt1.0bn(+49%YoY +32%QoQ).However, stripping out extra gain from asset valuation, AWC would incurred loss from operation at Bt11m, the lowest loss in ten quarter</li>
<li>Solid improvement in 3Q22 profit backed by Bangkok-MICE hotels This impressive recovery supported by hotel business,which generated revenue at Bt1.8bn(+575%YoY +38%QoQ)as occupancy is assumed to touch 55%(vs. 43% in 2Q22)</li>
<li>Retail and Commercial businesses are still on its gradual recovery pace given a lower rent discount subsided to renters to around10%from 2019 level (15% in 2Q22). Revenue expanded slightly QoQ </li>
</ul>


The company report 3Q22 net profit at Bt1.0bn(+49%YoY +32%QoQ).However, stripping out extra gain from asset valuation, AWC would incurred loss from operation at Bt11m, the lowest loss in ten quarter
Solid improvement in 3Q22 profit backed by Bangkok-MICE hotels This impressive recovery supported by hotel business,which generated revenue at Bt1.8bn(+575%YoY +38%QoQ)as occupancy is assumed to touch 55%(vs. 43% in 2Q22)
Retail and Commercial businesses are still on its gradual recovery pace given a lower rent discount subsided to renters to around10%from 2019 level (15% in 2Q22). Revenue expanded slightly QoQ 


AWC : 3Q22 Core Profit Beat Our Estimate but Below Market Expectation

<ul>
<li>Expect the company’s core operation to turn profit in4Q22,supported by solid recovery in hotels’ RevPar and lower rent discount given to tenants of retail space. Surging demand from business travelling </li>
<li>Solid improvement in 3Q22 profit backed by Bangkok-MICE hotels We expectAWC to post 3Q22 net loss from core operation at Bt44m supported by hotel business,which should post revenue at Bt1.7bn</li>
<li>Retail and Commercial businesses are still on its gradual recovery pace given a lower rent discount subsided to renters to around 10% from 2019 level(15% in2Q22). Revenue should recover 15%YoY</li>
</ul>


Expect the company’s core operation to turn profit in4Q22,supported by solid recovery in hotels’ RevPar and lower rent discount given to tenants of retail space. Surging demand from business travelling 
Solid improvement in 3Q22 profit backed by Bangkok-MICE hotels We expectAWC to post 3Q22 net loss from core operation at Bt44m supported by hotel business,which should post revenue at Bt1.7bn
Retail and Commercial businesses are still on its gradual recovery pace given a lower rent discount subsided to renters to around 10% from 2019 level(15% in2Q22). Revenue should recover 15%YoY


AWC : Solid Long-Term Earnings Growth, but on Demanding Valuation

Thailand

Asset World Corp Public Company Limited focuses on real estate development and investment services. The Company offers property management. Asset World Corp serves customers in Thailand.

Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)

KTX Zoom - Feb 8, 0224

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,409 points (75-day EMA/1,416 points) and the support at 1,390...

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand : The Empire Strikes Back

Thai politics entered an uncharted territory where many voters view the current coalition as a betrayal of their trust and we believe the surge in...

Bondcritic

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in December

Following the market consultation, there could be 4 index change in December. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.1% and will result in a one-way trade...

Brian Freitas

AWC : 3Q22 Core Profit Beat Our Estimate but Below Market Expectation

The company report 3Q22 net profit at Bt1.0bn (+49%YoY +32%QoQ). However, stripping out extra gain from asset valuation, AWC would incurred loss...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

AWC : Solid Long-Term Earnings Growth, but on Demanding Valuation

Expect the company’s core operation to turn profit in 4Q22, supported by solid recovery in hotels’ RevPar and lower rent discount given to tenants...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand