External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ASII 1H24/2Q24 NP fell -9%/-4% yoy, but still accounted for 53%/53% of our and consensus estimate, higher than historical seasonality.</li><li>ASII Jul24 sales improved +7% mom, implying 7M24 growth of -15% yoy (vs 6M24 -17% yoy); mgmt. aims to introduce new 4W models.</li><li>We raise our FY24/25F auto and UNTR EBIT by 6%-7%/2%-6%. Reiterate our BUY rating with 4% higher TP of Rp 5,300.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ASII 1H24/2Q24 NP fell -9%/-4% yoy, but still accounted for 53%/53% of our and consensus estimate, higher than historical seasonality.ASII Jul24 sales improved +7% mom, implying 7M24 growth of -15% yoy (vs 6M24 -17% yoy); mgmt. aims to introduce new 4W models.We raise our FY24/25F auto and UNTR EBIT by 6%-7%/2%-6%. Reiterate our BUY rating with 4% higher TP of Rp 5,300.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Upgrading Est. And TP on Better 4W Market Share

<ul><li>Our visit to GIIAS 2024 revealed aggressive Chinese 4W product launches with many choices in multiple price range.</li><li>We observed decent traffic at the Toyota booth, with Innova Zenix and Hilux Rangga attracting the most interest.</li><li>BYD’s new M6 MPV garnered attention, though we think it is still not comparable to Innova. Retain Buy rating and TP of Rp 5,100 on ASII.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our visit to GIIAS 2024 revealed aggressive Chinese 4W product launches with many choices in multiple price range.We observed decent traffic at the Toyota booth, with Innova Zenix and Hilux Rangga attracting the most interest.BYD’s new M6 MPV garnered attention, though we think it is still not comparable to Innova. Retain Buy rating and TP of Rp 5,100 on ASII.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Intensifying Competition Amid Chinese Producers Product Launches

<ul><li>We expect ASII’s 1H24 auto revenue/OP to decline by -13%/-45%, and financial segment revenue/OP to expand by 12%/18% yoy.</li><li>We expect HE’s 2Q24 earnings to improve +25% qoq, driving a potential beat for ASII’s 1H24 consolidated earnings.</li><li>We reiterate our BUY rating with a TP of Rp 5,100; 2H24E 4W sales will be a critical driver for ASII’s 2H24 earnings.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect ASII’s 1H24 auto revenue/OP to decline by -13%/-45%, and financial segment revenue/OP to expand by 12%/18% yoy.We expect HE’s 2Q24 earnings to improve +25% qoq, driving a potential beat for ASII’s 1H24 consolidated earnings.We reiterate our BUY rating with a TP of Rp 5,100; 2H24E 4W sales will be a critical driver for ASII’s 2H24 earnings.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Possible Earnings Beat, Driven by Strong Financials and Qoq HE Improvement

<ul><li>Used 4W sales have gained traction rapidly since 2020, in which year used 4W sales grew by 8% yoy, outpacing new 4W sales (-44% yoy).</li><li>In FY23, used 4W sales to total 4W sales reached 58%, vs the 2015- 2019 avg of 42%, as 4W ASP increases exceeded incomes.</li><li>New model releases should help to support new 4W sales. Reiterate Buy rating on ASII with a TP of Rp 5,100.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Used 4W sales have gained traction rapidly since 2020, in which year used 4W sales grew by 8% yoy, outpacing new 4W sales (-44% yoy).In FY23, used 4W sales to total 4W sales reached 58%, vs the 2015- 2019 avg of 42%, as 4W ASP increases exceeded incomes.New model releases should help to support new 4W sales. Reiterate Buy rating on ASII with a TP of Rp 5,100.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Challenges from Used 4W, but Expect 2H24F Sales to Improve from 1H24

<ul><li>While 4W sales remained weak in 5M24 (wholesales of 334.9k, -21% yoy), we expect new models to help boost 2H24F sales.</li><li>Retail sales &gt; wholesales suggests little overstock at dealers, as was also confirmed by lower discounts in May24 (~7%) vs Apr24 (8%).</li><li>We raise our FY24F net profit forecast by 1.4% on higher auto margin assumptions. Rating upgraded to Buy with a TP of Rp5,100.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While 4W sales remained weak in 5M24 (wholesales of 334.9k, -21% yoy), we expect new models to help boost 2H24F sales.Retail sales &gt; wholesales suggests little overstock at dealers, as was also confirmed by lower discounts in May24 (~7%) vs Apr24 (8%).We raise our FY24F net profit forecast by 1.4% on higher auto margin assumptions. Rating upgraded to Buy with a TP of Rp5,100.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Expect New Models to Boost 2H24F Sales

Indonesia

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

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