Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 5 trillion across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap and Small Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks.The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.In the upcoming recategorization in January 2021, we see 6 stocks moved from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment with an equal number of stocks moving the other way, and 12 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment with the same number moving the other way. There are quite a few IPOs that will join the small cap list, with just 1 joining the large cap list and 1 joining the mid cap list.Historically, the stocks migrating upward to a higher market cap segment have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap segment over the 1 month and 2 month period post the publishing of the AMFI list. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.

The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 5 trillion across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap and Small Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks.The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.In the upcoming recategorization in January 2021, we see 6 stocks moved from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment with an equal number of stocks moving the other way, and 12 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment with the same number moving the other way. There are quite a few IPOs that will join the small cap list, with just 1 joining the large cap list and 1 joining the mid cap list.Historically, the stocks migrating upward to a higher market cap segment have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap segment over the 1 month and 2 month period post the publishing of the AMFI list. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.

India: AMFI Stock Categorization Changes to Drive Active Portfolio Churn

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

While the major averages are stalling below major resistance and their direction is unclear, there are many individual stocks that continue to act well and that are offering fantastic entry points at current levels. Health Care and Technology remain our two favorite global Sectors, and they are outperforming across all major markets including the US, Europe, Japan, and China. Remain overweight/add exposure. Consumer Staples is another leadership Sector, particularly in the Asia/Pacific region. Lastly, we are also continuing to expand our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors as the market goes through a bottoming process.

While the major averages are stalling below major resistance and their direction is unclear, there are many individual stocks that continue to act well and that are offering fantastic entry points at current levels. Health Care and Technology remain our two favorite global Sectors, and they are outperforming across all major markets including the US, Europe, Japan, and China. Remain overweight/add exposure. Consumer Staples is another leadership Sector, particularly in the Asia/Pacific region. Lastly, we are also continuing to expand our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors as the market goes through a bottoming process.

Quantitative Analysis

In Friday's Union Budget presentation, the Finance Minister proposed increasing the Minimum Public Shareholding (MPS) in listed companies from 25% to 35% and has asked the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to consider raising the threshold. If and when implemented, promoters will need to either sell down their stake to meet the 35% threshold or buy back their stock and delist from the exchanges.In this piece, we look at multinational companies that have subsidiaries listed in India that do not meet the 35% threshold currently, and possible action on their part based on the current stock price, delisting guidelines and other considerations.

In Friday's Union Budget presentation, the Finance Minister proposed increasing the Minimum Public Shareholding (MPS) in listed companies from 25% to 35% and has asked the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to consider raising the threshold. If and when implemented, promoters will need to either sell down their stake to meet the 35% threshold or buy back their stock and delist from the exchanges.In this piece, we look at multinational companies that have subsidiaries listed in India that do not meet the 35% threshold currently, and possible action on their part based on the current stock price, delisting guidelines and other considerations.

Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/972" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:972:1">Biogen Inc (BIIB US)</a> is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22932" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1">Samsung Biologics Co., Ltd (207940 KS)</a> 's minority (5.4%) partner in the Samsung Bioepis JV that manufactures and sells biosimilars of leading biotechnology products. Biogen's option to buy up to 49.9% of the JV for US$4.5 billion has been used to support Samsung BioLogics' valuation since its listing. Biogen has stated its intent to exercise the option (expires at the end of June 2018) but does not view biosimilars as a core business. Recent reports that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/481" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:481:1">Samsung C&amp;T Corp (028260 KS)</a> is negotiating to buy at least 30% of the JV from Biogen make sense in the context of providing Biogen a partial exit and addressing the valuation controversy.We tag the Insight as negative because we think the shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22932" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1">Samsung Biologics Co., Ltd (207940 KS)</a> are overvalued.

Biogen Inc (BIIB US) is Samsung Biologics Co., Ltd (207940 KS) 's minority (5.4%) partner in the Samsung Bioepis JV that manufactures and sells biosimilars of leading biotechnology products. Biogen's option to buy up to 49.9% of the JV for US$4.5 billion has been used to support Samsung BioLogics' valuation since its listing. Biogen has stated its intent to exercise the option (expires at the end of June 2018) but does not view biosimilars as a core business. Recent reports that Samsung C&amp;T Corp (028260 KS) is negotiating to buy at least 30% of the JV from Biogen make sense in the context of providing Biogen a partial exit and addressing the valuation controversy.We tag the Insight as negative because we think the shares of Samsung Biologics Co., Ltd (207940 KS) are overvalued.

Frontier and emerging markets (Vietnam)

Dylan Waller

Nomadic Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Introduction to MedisetterI had the pleasure of interviewing Anirban Lahiri of Medisetter to discuss some of the opportunities present in Asia's healthcare industry. Medisetter is an international online medical travel search and bookings platform offering a one-stop-shop medical travel booking and planning service. Prospective patients can search and compare hospitals and clinics across different countries, receive price quotes, book appointments and also book accommodation, translators and…

Introduction to MedisetterI had the pleasure of interviewing Anirban Lahiri of Medisetter to discuss some of the opportunities present in Asia's healthcare industry. Medisetter is an international online medical travel search and bookings platform offering a one-stop-shop medical travel booking and planning service. Prospective patients can search and compare hospitals and clinics across different countries, receive price quotes, book appointments and also book accommodation, translators and…

MediSetter Interview: Insight on Opportunities in Asia's Healthcare Industry

India

Astrazeneca Pharma India Ltd manufactures basic drugs, pharmaceutical formulations, fine chemicals and industrial chemicals.  The Company's popular drugs include "Betaloc Durules," "Sensorcaine," "Theobric," "Restomycin," "Bromenyl" and "Febrafen."

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Astrazeneca Pharma India (ASTR IN)

India: AMFI Stock Categorization Changes to Drive Active Portfolio Churn

The reclassification of stocks to large, mid and small cap will set off a churn in mutual fund portfolios where historically stocks migrating...

Brian Freitas

Global Equities: Lower Highs Forming

While the major averages are stalling below major resistance and their direction is unclear, there are many individual stocks that continue to act...

Vermilion Research

India - Stake Sale or Delisting?

In Friday's Union Budget presentation, the Finance Minister proposed increasing the Minimum Public Shareholding (MPS) in listed companies from 25%...

Brian Freitas

A Conversation with Biogen

Biogen Inc (BIIB US) is Samsung Biologics Co., Ltd (207940 KS) 's minority (5.4%) partner in the Samsung Bioepis JV that manufactures and sells...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

MediSetter Interview: Insight on Opportunities in Asia's Healthcare Industry

Introduction to MedisetterI had the pleasure of interviewing Anirban Lahiri of Medisetter to discuss some of the opportunities present in Asia's...

Nomadic Equity

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