Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>With the central bank tightening and continuing globally with Fed and ECB hiking rates 25bps and BoJ moving the YCC cap, we have a look at global money trends again today to see if correlations hold and what to expect next in global markets.</li><li>Main take-aways: M1 growth looks outright horrible in the West, while Asian money trends looks very bullishM2 sub-components are still pointing towards more money flowing into more illiquid time-depositsReal M2 is starting to turn positive.</li><li>Could reignite inflation and fuel further economic growth.</li></ul>

With the central bank tightening and continuing globally with Fed and ECB hiking rates 25bps and BoJ moving the YCC cap, we have a look at global money trends again today to see if correlations hold and what to expect next in global markets.Main take-aways: M1 growth looks outright horrible in the West, while Asian money trends looks very bullishM2 sub-components are still pointing towards more money flowing into more illiquid time-depositsReal M2 is starting to turn positive.Could reignite inflation and fuel further economic growth.

<ul><li>The outlook for the economy, rates, fx and other assets apparently never fails to surprise!</li><li>We have thankfully made very decent returns through a tough trading week as some of our cyclical rotations had a tremendous start to the week before taking a minor hit when the change of the yield curve regime in Japan was announced.</li><li>First things first. <span style="font-weight: 400;">The decision to move the cap in the 10yr point of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) curve from 0.5% to 1.0% was a big surprise to many timing-wise. </span></li></ul>

The outlook for the economy, rates, fx and other assets apparently never fails to surprise!We have thankfully made very decent returns through a tough trading week as some of our cyclical rotations had a tremendous start to the week before taking a minor hit when the change of the yield curve regime in Japan was announced.First things first. The decision to move the cap in the 10yr point of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) curve from 0.5% to 1.0% was a big surprise to many timing-wise. 

Steno Signals #58 – The One on Banana Republics, Yield Curve Controls and the Yuge EUR Consensus

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.</li>
<li>The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.</li>
<li>In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.
The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.
In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.


Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

<ul><li>It’s central bank week again! Always a busy week when the biggest central banks publish their monthly interest rate decisions, but as always we are on our toes to provide you with actionable and timely coverage of all the rate decisions, meeting takeaways and more from Fed, ECB, BoJ &amp; the rest.</li><li>Our main thesis is that the overall message across the board will be slightly dovish given recent CPI numbers which suggest that the central banks’ job is done and that inflation will come down fast.</li><li>But maybe central banks keep looking in the rearview mirror, afraid to make a mistake that will ignite inflation again.</li></ul>

It’s central bank week again! Always a busy week when the biggest central banks publish their monthly interest rate decisions, but as always we are on our toes to provide you with actionable and timely coverage of all the rate decisions, meeting takeaways and more from Fed, ECB, BoJ &amp; the rest.Our main thesis is that the overall message across the board will be slightly dovish given recent CPI numbers which suggest that the central banks’ job is done and that inflation will come down fast.But maybe central banks keep looking in the rearview mirror, afraid to make a mistake that will ignite inflation again.

5 Things We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBA & Credit

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 things that we have found particularly interesting in the past week.</li><li>Yesterday we launched the first of a couple of articles focusing on the current business cycle, giving our best guess on where in the cycle we are, what markets are pricing in and most importantly – what will happen next.</li><li>The full articles regarding the business cycle and how different asset classes are positioned for it will be released throughout the week for premium subscribers.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 things that we have found particularly interesting in the past week.Yesterday we launched the first of a couple of articles focusing on the current business cycle, giving our best guess on where in the cycle we are, what markets are pricing in and most importantly – what will happen next.The full articles regarding the business cycle and how different asset classes are positioned for it will be released throughout the week for premium subscribers.

5 Things We Watch – PMIs, FX, Japan, Brazil, Inflation

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

Money Watch – Is money growth BACK?

With the central bank tightening and continuing globally with Fed and ECB hiking rates 25bps and BoJ moving the YCC cap, we have a look at global...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #58 – The One on Banana Republics, Yield Curve Controls and the Yuge EUR Consensus

The outlook for the economy, rates, fx and other assets apparently never fails to surprise! We have thankfully made very decent returns through a...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

Happy Saturday, and welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBA & Credit

It’s central bank week again! Always a busy week when the biggest central banks publish their monthly interest rate decisions, but as always we...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – PMIs, FX, Japan, Brazil, Inflation

Welcome to this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 things that we have found particularly interesting in the past...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)