FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Brexit fear diminishing boosting GBP and other currencies</li>
<li>Eurozone IP rebounds, the first sign of stabilisation</li>
<li>Pressure increases for a rate cut in Australia</li>
</ul>We can see a case for GBP to rise towards 1.40 helping recoveries in EUR and AUD, and weakening the USD more broadly.  But the outlook for a more sustained period of low EUR rates, no structural underweight in EUR, and limited demand for Euro assets suggest that its upside may be limited.  Rate cut expectations have reached a new peak in Australia, and the AUD should continue to remain heavy.  Chinese economic reports (trade, credit, PMIs) have been weak, Jan/Feb activity data are due later today.  The overall outlook for the USD remains mixed and cautious trading continues to be advised. Event risk will keep traders playing the short game.


Brexit fear diminishing boosting GBP and other currencies
Eurozone IP rebounds, the first sign of stabilisation
Pressure increases for a rate cut in Australia
We can see a case for GBP to rise towards 1.40 helping recoveries in EUR and AUD, and weakening the USD more broadly.  But the outlook for a more sustained period of low EUR rates, no structural underweight in EUR, and limited demand for Euro assets suggest that its upside may be limited.  Rate cut expectations have reached a new peak in Australia, and the AUD should continue to remain heavy.  Chinese economic reports (trade, credit, PMIs) have been weak, Jan/Feb activity data are due later today.  The overall outlook for the USD remains mixed and cautious trading continues to be advised. Event risk will keep traders playing the short game.

Brexit Sucking up Oxygen from the FX Market

While the downgrades to the ECB outlook may not have been unexpected, they appear to have been viewed as the last straw for EUR bulls.  EUR has failed to respond to lower US rates in recent months or a moderate recovery in global risk appetite.  An expectation that ECB rates policy normalisation may take much longer may be encouraging the use of the EUR as a funding currency for ‘carry trades’.  The AUD is flirting with key support (0.70), and widespread expectation that the RBA will capitulate on its long-held reluctance to cut rates below 1.5% is weighing on the currency. Labour market data may hold the key.

While the downgrades to the ECB outlook may not have been unexpected, they appear to have been viewed as the last straw for EUR bulls.  EUR has failed to respond to lower US rates in recent months or a moderate recovery in global risk appetite.  An expectation that ECB rates policy normalisation may take much longer may be encouraging the use of the EUR as a funding currency for ‘carry trades’.  The AUD is flirting with key support (0.70), and widespread expectation that the RBA will capitulate on its long-held reluctance to cut rates below 1.5% is weighing on the currency. Labour market data may hold the key.

ECB Was the Last Straw, AUD’s Hold onto 70 Slipping

The pressure is building on the RBA to cut rates as the construction data proves much weaker than expected in the second half of 2018; pointing to sub-trend GDP growth over the year ahead.  The RBA may cling to their outlook for stable rates, for the time being, citing recent strength in the labour market, and hopes of a rebound in infrastructure spending. But they will feel the heat as market commentators bay for their blood if the economy continues to struggle through the year.  The relatively weak AUD appears to be reflecting the heightened concern over the weak housing market, but it remains difficult to short, considering the potential for a US-China trade deal, Chinese policy stimulus, rising confidence that the UK will avoid a cliff-edge hard Brexit, dovish noises from the Fed, and stronger commodity prices and global risk appetite.

The pressure is building on the RBA to cut rates as the construction data proves much weaker than expected in the second half of 2018; pointing to sub-trend GDP growth over the year ahead.  The RBA may cling to their outlook for stable rates, for the time being, citing recent strength in the labour market, and hopes of a rebound in infrastructure spending. But they will feel the heat as market commentators bay for their blood if the economy continues to struggle through the year.  The relatively weak AUD appears to be reflecting the heightened concern over the weak housing market, but it remains difficult to short, considering the potential for a US-China trade deal, Chinese policy stimulus, rising confidence that the UK will avoid a cliff-edge hard Brexit, dovish noises from the Fed, and stronger commodity prices and global risk appetite.

The surge in Chinese equities, leading a broader rebound in emerging market assets is significant and hard to ignore.  The AUD has significantly lagged the rebound in risk appetite indicators, including copper, other commodity and Asian currencies.  Fears over Australia’s housing market have dominated recent developments, but labour market indicators suggest the RBA will be in no hurry to cut rates.  US real yields have fallen significantly since their peak in November last year and may reflect recent evidence of weaker economic activity.  Prominent Fed members suggest the Fed may be moving to target average inflation, paving the way for lower US rates and a weaker USD outlook.

The surge in Chinese equities, leading a broader rebound in emerging market assets is significant and hard to ignore.  The AUD has significantly lagged the rebound in risk appetite indicators, including copper, other commodity and Asian currencies.  Fears over Australia’s housing market have dominated recent developments, but labour market indicators suggest the RBA will be in no hurry to cut rates.  US real yields have fallen significantly since their peak in November last year and may reflect recent evidence of weaker economic activity.  Prominent Fed members suggest the Fed may be moving to target average inflation, paving the way for lower US rates and a weaker USD outlook.

US Real Yields Fall, and the Fed Wants Higher Inflation

The Speech by RBA Governor Lowe today (Wednesday) will be under a bright spotlight as the market looks for further colour after the policy statement yesterday.  Crucially the audience will be wanting to know if Lowe still thinks the next move in rates is likely to be higher.

The Speech by RBA Governor Lowe today (Wednesday) will be under a bright spotlight as the market looks for further colour after the policy statement yesterday.  Crucially the audience will be wanting to know if Lowe still thinks the next move in rates is likely to be higher.

Spotlight on RBA Lowe; Time to Drop Bias to Hike

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

Brexit Sucking up Oxygen from the FX Market

Brexit fear diminishing boosting GBP and other currencies Eurozone IP rebounds, the first sign of stabilisation Pressure increases for a rate cut...

Greg Gibbs

ECB Was the Last Straw, AUD’s Hold onto 70 Slipping

While the downgrades to the ECB outlook may not have been unexpected, they appear to have been viewed as the last straw for EUR bulls. EUR has...

Greg Gibbs

Pressure on the RBA Mounts

The pressure is building on the RBA to cut rates as the construction data proves much weaker than expected in the second half of 2018; pointing to...

Greg Gibbs

US Real Yields Fall, and the Fed Wants Higher Inflation

The surge in Chinese equities, leading a broader rebound in emerging market assets is significant and hard to ignore. The AUD has significantly...

Greg Gibbs

Spotlight on RBA Lowe; Time to Drop Bias to Hike

The Speech by RBA Governor Lowe today (Wednesday) will be under a bright spotlight as the market looks for further colour after the policy...

Greg Gibbs

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