Political analyst

Aaron Timms

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Some quick reactions to this morning’s leadership spill in the Liberal Party room, which saw Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull hold off a challenge from Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton by 48 votes to 35.

Some quick reactions to this morning’s leadership spill in the Liberal Party room, which saw Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull hold off a challenge from Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton by 48 votes to 35.

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action.  This may be helping drive the USD higher in the recent upheaval led by Turkey. And it may be adding to the woes of other EM currencies with significant dollar-debt.  However, when you exchange TRL for USD, you are exchanging the currency of one country with a large twin deficit for another with an equally troubling demand for dollar debt. You are exchanging a populist political leader with a penchant for controlling the media and the central bank for another in an existential battle with the political and legal establishment, attacking the media, central bank and many foreign countries’ governments. The US economy is not an island immune from risks abroad, and it is not well prepared to deal with an economic slowdown or financial stress.  There is no fiscal room, and all eyes would turn to the Fed if, and when, stress abroad, some of it driven by US foreign policy, feeds back to the USA.

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action.  This may be helping drive the USD higher in the recent upheaval led by Turkey. And it may be adding to the woes of other EM currencies with significant dollar-debt.  However, when you exchange TRL for USD, you are exchanging the currency of one country with a large twin deficit for another with an equally troubling demand for dollar debt. You are exchanging a populist political leader with a penchant for controlling the media and the central bank for another in an existential battle with the political and legal establishment, attacking the media, central bank and many foreign countries’ governments. The US economy is not an island immune from risks abroad, and it is not well prepared to deal with an economic slowdown or financial stress.  There is no fiscal room, and all eyes would turn to the Fed if, and when, stress abroad, some of it driven by US foreign policy, feeds back to the USA.

TRL for USD; Exchanging One Twin Deficit and Populist Government for Another

In a follow-up note from our report last week (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/major-commodity-currencies-may-diverge-cad-set-to-shine" target="_blank">Major commodity currencies may diverge – CAD set to shine</a>) we preview the RBA and RBNZ policy meetings next week and see risks of dovish surprises in both.  Business surveys have ebbed, particularly in New Zealand.  The Australian economy is showing more resilience, but risks from a housing market downturn are intensifying.  Uncertainty in global markets, particularly related to US-China trade relations, may be increasing.  Even a subtle shift in message from both central banks may place significant downward pressure on their currencies.  In contrast, Canadian economic reports showed strength, and this may be reinforced next week.

In a follow-up note from our report last week (Major commodity currencies may diverge – CAD set to shine) we preview the RBA and RBNZ policy meetings next week and see risks of dovish surprises in both.  Business surveys have ebbed, particularly in New Zealand.  The Australian economy is showing more resilience, but risks from a housing market downturn are intensifying.  Uncertainty in global markets, particularly related to US-China trade relations, may be increasing.  Even a subtle shift in message from both central banks may place significant downward pressure on their currencies.  In contrast, Canadian economic reports showed strength, and this may be reinforced next week.

A lot is happening in global markets this week.  No doubt you are reading much about key central bank meetings in Japan and the UK, and key data releases including Euro GDP and CPI.  However, we have decided to hone in on the AUD, NZD and CAD which present there own opportunities in a market searching for fresh direction.  We see upside potential for CAD on recent solid economic reports, rising rates, and positive news developing on NAFTA vs. ongoing trade tensions between the US and China.  NZD appears more vulnerable and faces a key hurdle this week with NZ labour data released for Q2.

A lot is happening in global markets this week.  No doubt you are reading much about key central bank meetings in Japan and the UK, and key data releases including Euro GDP and CPI.  However, we have decided to hone in on the AUD, NZD and CAD which present there own opportunities in a market searching for fresh direction.  We see upside potential for CAD on recent solid economic reports, rising rates, and positive news developing on NAFTA vs. ongoing trade tensions between the US and China.  NZD appears more vulnerable and faces a key hurdle this week with NZ labour data released for Q2.

Major Commodity Currencies May Diverge – CAD Set to Shine

The AUD faces a number of downside risks; these include a weakening housing market, a persistent jump in Australian bank funding costs, tightening credit conditions for Australian borrowers, tightening shadow-finance in China, a slowing Chinese economy, and threats related to a trade war between the US and China. However, to date, China is managing its economy and financial sector to prevent more than a gradual slowing in activity. Chinese steel production growth remains solid and Australian commodity prices are holding above their average for the last two years. Australia is taking a bigger share of Chinese iron ore imports, and its material sector is being supported by a combination of a weaker AUD and stable commodity prices. Australia’s external balance appears structurally stronger. Private business investment is growing solidly, supported by infrastructure demand, as the mining investment downturn tapers out. Overall business conditions have ebbed in recent months but remain well above average. Consumer confidence has lifted to moderately above average, showing little fallout, yet, from a weaker housing market. We expect the AUD/USD to be hemmed into a 70/75 range with a bias to expect further falls.

The AUD faces a number of downside risks; these include a weakening housing market, a persistent jump in Australian bank funding costs, tightening credit conditions for Australian borrowers, tightening shadow-finance in China, a slowing Chinese economy, and threats related to a trade war between the US and China. However, to date, China is managing its economy and financial sector to prevent more than a gradual slowing in activity. Chinese steel production growth remains solid and Australian commodity prices are holding above their average for the last two years. Australia is taking a bigger share of Chinese iron ore imports, and its material sector is being supported by a combination of a weaker AUD and stable commodity prices. Australia’s external balance appears structurally stronger. Private business investment is growing solidly, supported by infrastructure demand, as the mining investment downturn tapers out. Overall business conditions have ebbed in recent months but remain well above average. Consumer confidence has lifted to moderately above average, showing little fallout, yet, from a weaker housing market. We expect the AUD/USD to be hemmed into a 70/75 range with a bias to expect further falls.

AUD – What Gives? – Risks and Strengths

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

One Step Closer to a Labor Government

Some quick reactions to this morning’s leadership spill in the Liberal Party room, which saw Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull hold off a challenge...

Aaron Timms

TRL for USD; Exchanging One Twin Deficit and Populist Government for Another

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action. This may be helping drive the USD higher in the...

Greg Gibbs

RBA and RBNZ May Reveal Doubts

In a follow-up note from our report last week (Major commodity currencies may diverge – CAD set to shine) we preview the RBA and RBNZ policy...

Greg Gibbs

Major Commodity Currencies May Diverge – CAD Set to Shine

A lot is happening in global markets this week. No doubt you are reading much about key central bank meetings in Japan and the UK, and key data...

Greg Gibbs

AUD – What Gives? – Risks and Strengths

The AUD faces a number of downside risks; these include a weakening housing market, a persistent jump in Australian bank funding costs, tightening...

Greg Gibbs

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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