Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go of the steering wheel on USD real rates.</li><li>The weekly credit data from the US economy keeps weakening and we are en route for a credit contraction in the US during Q1/Q2 next year.</li><li>Powell is probably right to let go of the tightness in USD real rates, but the question is whether he could be tempted to take back control in December in a final policy error?</li></ul>

The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go of the steering wheel on USD real rates.The weekly credit data from the US economy keeps weakening and we are en route for a credit contraction in the US during Q1/Q2 next year.Powell is probably right to let go of the tightness in USD real rates, but the question is whether he could be tempted to take back control in December in a final policy error?

Steno Signals #74 – Did King USD Just Break?

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.</li><li>In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome to a shorter piece on where to find fundamental value in the current FX environment.</li><li>We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the best FX bets now that the tightening cycle is likely soon coming to an end.</li><li>Read along, as we run through the most important pairs below.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome to a shorter piece on where to find fundamental value in the current FX environment.We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the best FX bets now that the tightening cycle is likely soon coming to an end.Read along, as we run through the most important pairs below.

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.</li><li>First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.</li><li>One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks</li></ul>

Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

<ul><li>Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.</li><li>Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?</li><li>But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest</li></ul>

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest

Positioning Watch:  Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

Steno Signals #74 – Did King USD Just Break?

The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go...

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

We anticipate consistent QT in both USDs and EURs in the forthcoming month. On a 3-month time frame, and given the assumed conditions, our model...

Steno Research

FX Watch – Exploring FX Fundamentals

We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

I sent Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs to support our critical partners, including Israel and...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion. Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week!

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)