Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.</li>
</ul>


There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Poonawalla Fincorp is targeting a 5–6x AUM growth over five years, driven by new product launches, digital innovation, and branch expansion in the gold loan segment.</li>
<li>
Backed by the Cyrus Poonawalla Group and led by seasoned professionals, the company’s low cost of borrowing and tech-first approach enhances its competitive positioning in the NBFC space.</li>
<li>The shift toward secured lending, digital underwriting, and MSME focus suggests a more resilient and scalable growth model, improving visibility on profitability and asset quality.</li>
</ul>


Poonawalla Fincorp is targeting a 5–6x AUM growth over five years, driven by new product launches, digital innovation, and branch expansion in the gold loan segment.

Backed by the Cyrus Poonawalla Group and led by seasoned professionals, the company’s low cost of borrowing and tech-first approach enhances its competitive positioning in the NBFC space.
The shift toward secured lending, digital underwriting, and MSME focus suggests a more resilient and scalable growth model, improving visibility on profitability and asset quality.


The Beat Ideas: Poonawalla Fincorp Ltd.- Leading the Charge in Digital-First Financial Services

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

HDB Financial Services Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdb-financial-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44072:1" rel="noopener">HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN)</a> is India's seventh-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC). It is seeking to raise Rs125 billion (US$1.4 billion).</li>
<li>I discussed the fundamentals in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hdb-financial-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:191077" rel="noopener">HDB Financial IPO: The Investment Case</a>. The shares will be listed on 2 July.</li>
<li>My valuation analysis suggests the HDB is fully priced at the IPO price range of Rs 700- 740 per share. I would avoid the IPO.</li>
</ul>



HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is India's seventh-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC). It is seeking to raise Rs125 billion (US$1.4 billion).
I discussed the fundamentals in HDB Financial IPO: The Investment Case. The shares will be listed on 2 July.
My valuation analysis suggests the HDB is fully priced at the IPO price range of Rs 700- 740 per share. I would avoid the IPO.


Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

HDB Financial Services Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Offer: ₹12,500 crore IPO (₹2,500 crore fresh issue + ₹10,000 crore OFS); price band ₹700–740 implies a ₹61,250 crore valuation.</li>
<li>Track Record &amp; Use of Funds: 15% AUM CAGR and 41% PAT CAGR over FY21–25; proceeds to bolster Tier-1 capital and fund growth.</li>
<li>Valuation Caution: Backed by HDFC Bank with deep rural reach, but 3.9x P/BV implies a 27% ROE—well above current levels—leaving little margin for execution slippage.</li>
</ul>


Offer: ₹12,500 crore IPO (₹2,500 crore fresh issue + ₹10,000 crore OFS); price band ₹700–740 implies a ₹61,250 crore valuation.
Track Record &amp; Use of Funds: 15% AUM CAGR and 41% PAT CAGR over FY21–25; proceeds to bolster Tier-1 capital and fund growth.
Valuation Caution: Backed by HDFC Bank with deep rural reach, but 3.9x P/BV implies a 27% ROE—well above current levels—leaving little margin for execution slippage.


HDB Financial Services IPO – Strong Franchise, Solid Backing, But Pricing Demands Delivery

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdb-financial-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44072:1" rel="noopener">HDB Financial Services</a> is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.</li>
</ul>



HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.


HDB Financial Services IPO - Parent Brand and Easing Macros Should See It Through

India

Bajaj Finance Limited is a financial services company that operates branches in India, which provide an assortment of financial services.

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Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN)

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

The Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalances at the close tomorrow. Since announcement, the adds have outperformed the deletes (but only marginally)....

Brian Freitas

The Beat Ideas: Poonawalla Fincorp Ltd.- Leading the Charge in Digital-First Financial Services

Poonawalla Fincorp aims for 5-6x AUM growth in 5 years with new products, digital innovation, and gold loan expansion. Tech-first approach and...

Sudarshan Bhandari

HDB Financial IPO: Valuation Insights

My valuation analysis suggests the HDB is fully priced at the IPO price range of Rs 700- 740 per share. I would avoid the IPO.

Arun George

HDB Financial Services IPO – Strong Franchise, Solid Backing, But Pricing Demands Delivery

Upcoming ₹12,500 crore IPO for a company with strong growth potential, but caution advised due to high valuation and expectations. Proceeds to...

Rahul Jain

HDB Financial Services IPO - Parent Brand and Easing Macros Should See It Through

HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

The Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalances at the close tomorrow. Since announcement, the adds have outperformed the deletes (but only marginally)....

Brian Freitas

The Beat Ideas: Poonawalla Fincorp Ltd.- Leading the Charge in Digital-First Financial Services

​Poonawalla Fincorp aims for 5-6x AUM growth in 5 years with new products, digital innovation, and gold loan expansion. Tech-first approach and...

Sudarshan Bhandari

HDB Financial IPO: Valuation Insights

My valuation analysis suggests the HDB is fully priced at the IPO price range of Rs 700- 740 per share. I would avoid the IPO.

Arun George

HDB Financial Services IPO – Strong Franchise, Solid Backing, But Pricing Demands Delivery

​Upcoming ₹12,500 crore IPO for a company with strong growth potential, but caution advised due to high valuation and expectations. Proceeds to...

Rahul Jain

HDB Financial Services IPO - Parent Brand and Easing Macros Should See It Through

HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Sumeet Singh

Poonawalla Fincorp aims for 5-6x AUM growth in 5 years with new products, digital innovation, and gold loan expansion. Tech-first approach and...

Upcoming ₹12,500 crore IPO for a company with strong growth potential, but caution advised due to high valuation and expectations. Proceeds to...