Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Core profit in 1Q25 declined YoY, and the 2Q25E figure is expected to weaken QoQ due to entering the low season and the gradual return of wet-leased aircraft.</li><li>In the longer term, pressure arises from the renewal of service and inflight catering contracts at Suvarnabhumi Airport (expiring in 2Q26E), as well as the renovation of Samui Airport, which will take time to increase passenger volume.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a fair value of Bt19.00, based on a required return of 10.3%.</li></ul>

Core profit in 1Q25 declined YoY, and the 2Q25E figure is expected to weaken QoQ due to entering the low season and the gradual return of wet-leased aircraft.In the longer term, pressure arises from the renewal of service and inflight catering contracts at Suvarnabhumi Airport (expiring in 2Q26E), as well as the renovation of Samui Airport, which will take time to increase passenger volume.We maintain a Neutral rating with a fair value of Bt19.00, based on a required return of 10.3%.

Bangkok Airways - 1Q25 Core Profit Contracted YoY

<ul><li>1Q25E core profit is expected to be unremarkable due to higher tax expenses, and the 2Q25E performance is projected to decline QoQ, driven by seasonal factors and the return of two wet-leased aircraft during late March to April.</li><li>In addition, the absence of new catalysts limits the potential upside, resulting in long-term core EPS growth of just a 4% CAGR — lower than the industry average.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating but revise down the fair value to Bt19.00, based on a required return of 10.3%, reflecting our house view’s updated macro assumptions: Rf = 2.07% and MRP = 5.58% (previously Bt25.25, 8.0%, Rf = 2.27%, and MRP = 4.43%).</li></ul>

1Q25E core profit is expected to be unremarkable due to higher tax expenses, and the 2Q25E performance is projected to decline QoQ, driven by seasonal factors and the return of two wet-leased aircraft during late March to April.In addition, the absence of new catalysts limits the potential upside, resulting in long-term core EPS growth of just a 4% CAGR — lower than the industry average.We maintain a Neutral rating but revise down the fair value to Bt19.00, based on a required return of 10.3%, reflecting our house view’s updated macro assumptions: Rf = 2.07% and MRP = 5.58% (previously Bt25.25, 8.0%, Rf = 2.27%, and MRP = 4.43%).

Bangkok Airways - Unexciting 1Q25E Earnings; No New LT Catalysts

<ul><li>We initiate coverage on BA with a Neutral rating.</li><li>While we have a positive view on its fundamentals, with the fair value offering 35% upside, we are concerned about its long-term performance, with an expected 2025-27E core EPS CAGR of +4%, lower than the industry average of +9%.</li><li>The share price may rise in the short term, supported by an expected increase in 1Q25E core profit both YoY and QoQ. </li></ul>

We initiate coverage on BA with a Neutral rating.While we have a positive view on its fundamentals, with the fair value offering 35% upside, we are concerned about its long-term performance, with an expected 2025-27E core EPS CAGR of +4%, lower than the industry average of +9%.The share price may rise in the short term, supported by an expected increase in 1Q25E core profit both YoY and QoQ. 

Bangkok Airways - Limited LT Growth Outlook...

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to trade sideways up today, though momentum is likely to moderate.</li><li>The Cabinet has approved the Khon La Khrueng Plus scheme with a total budget of Bt44bn (in line with expectations).</li><li>The MPC meeting will be held today, with the outcome expected around 2:00 p.m. Bloomberg Consensus expects the policy rate to be cut from 1.50% to 1.25%, the lowest level in three years.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to trade sideways up today, though momentum is likely to moderate.The Cabinet has approved the Khon La Khrueng Plus scheme with a total budget of Bt44bn (in line with expectations).The MPC meeting will be held today, with the outcome expected around 2:00 p.m. Bloomberg Consensus expects the policy rate to be cut from 1.50% to 1.25%, the lowest level in three years.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. October 8, 2025

<ul><li>Although concerns over the US government shutdown pressured the market and triggered sell-offs in energy, banking, finance, and commerce stocks, clarity on the “Khon La Khrueng” co-payment scheme, strong gains in DELTA and AOT, and renewed foreign investor buying helped the SET edge higher.</li><li>The index’s rebound still lacks conviction, as it relied heavily on DELTA in the previous session.</li><li>We maintain our buy-on-dips recommendation, as we expect the index to eventually rebound given its quick attempts to bounce back.</li></ul>

Although concerns over the US government shutdown pressured the market and triggered sell-offs in energy, banking, finance, and commerce stocks, clarity on the “Khon La Khrueng” co-payment scheme, strong gains in DELTA and AOT, and renewed foreign investor buying helped the SET edge higher.The index’s rebound still lacks conviction, as it relied heavily on DELTA in the previous session.We maintain our buy-on-dips recommendation, as we expect the index to eventually rebound given its quick attempts to bounce back.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. October 2, 2025

Thailand

Bangkok Airways Company Limited offers air transportation services. The Company operates flights and airports to various resort destinations in Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, China, and Japan.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bangkok Airways (BA TB)

Bangkok Airways - 1Q25 Core Profit Contracted YoY

Core profit in 1Q25 declined YoY, and the 2Q25E figure is expected to weaken QoQ due to entering the low season and the gradual return of wet...

Krungthai XSpring

Bangkok Airways - Unexciting 1Q25E Earnings; No New LT Catalysts

We maintain a Neutral rating but revise down the fair value to Bt19.00, based on a required return of 10.3%, reflecting our house view’s updated...

Krungthai XSpring

Bangkok Airways - Limited LT Growth Outlook...

While we have a positive view on its fundamentals, with the fair value offering 35% upside, we are concerned about its long-term performance

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. October 8, 2025

The MPC meeting will be held today, with the outcome expected around 2:00 p.m. Bloomberg Consensus expects the policy rate to be cut from 1.50% to...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. October 2, 2025

We maintain our buy-on-dips recommendation, as we expect the index to eventually rebound given its quick attempts to bounce back.

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)