Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Before the Battle. Even before this key 2nd presidential debate in St Louis on October 9 (but October 10 Thai time), the press raised many issues. Both candidates seem to be having a tough time yo:<ul><li>
Wikileaks vs Hillary: Julian Assange of Wikileaks threatened to spill the beans on Hillary saying that she sat on the board of France's cement maker Lafarge, which operates in certain areas of Iraq and paid taxes to ISIS. Gee whiz! The French should be more angry about this than Americans. Terrorists…</li></ul>

Before the Battle. Even before this key 2nd presidential debate in St Louis on October 9 (but October 10 Thai time), the press raised many issues. Both candidates seem to be having a tough time yo:
Wikileaks vs Hillary: Julian Assange of Wikileaks threatened to spill the beans on Hillary saying that she sat on the board of France's cement maker Lafarge, which operates in certain areas of Iraq and paid taxes to ISIS. Gee whiz! The French should be more angry about this than Americans. Terrorists…

Strike 2 in St Louis: Trump's Town Hall Trap

Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co / Equity Bottom-Up

The decline in oil prices from 2014's levels has pressured government spending in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)* countries. This long-term change in the region's economic model has started to impact healthcare policy, resulting in less generous benefits. The region is a significant source of "medical tourism" for several countries such as the the UK, Germany, US, and Thailand. Bumrungrad Hospital PCL (BH: TB), -21% YTD, has significant exposure to this change. In particular, expectations that Bumrungrad's EPS growth will accelerate to 10% in 2017 from 0% in 2016 look optimistic given the nature and timing of these changes. Bangkok Dusit Medical Services PCL (BDMS: TB) has less exposure while experiencing the same pressures. * GCC members: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait

The decline in oil prices from 2014's levels has pressured government spending in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)* countries. This long-term change in the region's economic model has started to impact healthcare policy, resulting in less generous benefits. The region is a significant source of "medical tourism" for several countries such as the the UK, Germany, US, and Thailand. Bumrungrad Hospital PCL (BH: TB), -21% YTD, has significant exposure to this change. In particular, expectations that Bumrungrad's EPS growth will accelerate to 10% in 2017 from 0% in 2016 look optimistic given the nature and timing of these changes. Bangkok Dusit Medical Services PCL (BDMS: TB) has less exposure while experiencing the same pressures. * GCC members: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>Of the actively traded stocks listed on SGX, Singapore Medical Group saw the biggest jump in volume in August compared to its three-month average volume. The stock also gained 91.4% in August and earlier in the month reported a turnaround net profit of S$0.8 million for 1H2016 compared to a net loss of S$0.1 million in 1H2015.</li></ul><ul><li>
Consumer Staples plays, Sheng Siong Group and Dairy Farm International Holdings were also amongst the 10 actively traded stocks that saw the biggest jump in August volume.…</li></ul>

Of the actively traded stocks listed on SGX, Singapore Medical Group saw the biggest jump in volume in August compared to its three-month average volume. The stock also gained 91.4% in August and earlier in the month reported a turnaround net profit of S$0.8 million for 1H2016 compared to a net loss of S$0.1 million in 1H2015.
Consumer Staples plays, Sheng Siong Group and Dairy Farm International Holdings were also amongst the 10 actively traded stocks that saw the biggest jump in August volume.…

10 Biggest Volume Jumpers in August Spanned Seven Sectors

Asia Ex-J Consumer/ Transport analyst

Valerie Law, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Guangdong Kanghua Healthcare / Equity Capital Markets

Guangdong Kanghua (GDKH) has one of the largest for-profit private hospital in China (Kanghua hospital) in terms of registered beds and third largest in terms of revenue, as at December 2015. In this article, we discuss the answers to the following questions:<ol><li>Falling utilisation was offset by rising average inpatient spend and rising hospital visits. Can this continue?</li><li>Its top two disciplines - O&amp;G and Cardiology have been showing good growth, but don't expect a spurt in birth rates from the easing of one-child policy.</li><li>Why is this deal for patient investors? </li><li>What are the other specific risks facing the company?</li><li>At what valuations should GDKH trade at?</li></ol>

Guangdong Kanghua (GDKH) has one of the largest for-profit private hospital in China (Kanghua hospital) in terms of registered beds and third largest in terms of revenue, as at December 2015. In this article, we discuss the answers to the following questions:Falling utilisation was offset by rising average inpatient spend and rising hospital visits.  Can this continue?Its top two disciplines - O&amp;G and Cardiology have been showing good growth, but don't expect a spurt in birth rates from the easing of one-child policy.Why is this deal for patient investors? What are the other specific risks facing the company?At what valuations should GDKH trade at?

Guangdong Kanghua IPO: Concentration Risk and More Track Record Needed

Thai mainstream hospital chains are all priced at over 35x PE each. On a relative basis, we believe market leader BDMS has the best relative value, but overall we would avoid this sector. For die-hard healthcare investors, we recommend picking niche players and related stocks, such as Mega Life Sciences or MEGA (a drug maker with 80% gross margin), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22925" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22925">Business Alignment Public Company Limited (BIZ TB)</a>  (an "insanely cheap" cancer treatment stock that is popular with hospitals but unloved by investors), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22924" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22924">Ekachai Medical Care PCL (EKH TB)</a>  (a childcare center trading at 2.8x PE....seriously?)Inside this review, you'll find some interesting snippets about: 1) drugmakers who intentionally produce in high-cost environment; 2) profitable companies with high margins and good potential trading at ridiculous discounts in a traditionally expensive sector simply because they are not big enough to warrant coverage; and 3) why we would pick a 43x PE stock over a 37x one. Enjoy!

Thai mainstream hospital chains are all priced at over 35x PE each. On a relative basis, we believe market leader BDMS has the best relative value, but overall we would avoid this sector. For die-hard healthcare investors, we recommend picking niche players and related stocks, such as Mega Life Sciences or MEGA (a drug maker with 80% gross margin), Business Alignment Public Company Limited (BIZ TB)  (an "insanely cheap" cancer treatment stock that is popular with hospitals but unloved by investors), and Ekachai Medical Care PCL (EKH TB)  (a childcare center trading at 2.8x PE....seriously?)Inside this review, you'll find some interesting snippets about: 1) drugmakers who intentionally produce in high-cost environment; 2) profitable companies with high margins and good potential trading at ridiculous discounts in a traditionally expensive sector simply because they are not big enough to warrant coverage; and 3) why we would pick a 43x PE stock over a 37x one. Enjoy!

Thailand

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited operates Bangkok General Hospital. The Hospital specializes in cardiovascular, lung, neurological, eye and genitourinary cancer, as well as physical therapy and medical imaging.

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Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB)

Strike 2 in St Louis: Trump's Town Hall Trap

Before the Battle. Even before this key 2nd presidential debate in St Louis on October 9 (but October 10 Thai time), the press raised many issues....

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

The Oil Slick That Reached Bangkok

The decline in oil prices from 2014's levels has pressured government spending in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)* countries. This long-term change...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

10 Biggest Volume Jumpers in August Spanned Seven Sectors

Of the actively traded stocks listed on SGX, Singapore Medical Group saw the biggest jump in volume in August compared to its three-month average...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Guangdong Kanghua IPO: Concentration Risk and More Track Record Needed

Guangdong Kanghua (GDKH) has one of the largest for-profit private hospital in China (Kanghua hospital) in terms of registered beds and third...

Valerie Law, CFA

Thai Healthcare: A Sector of Extremes

Thai mainstream hospital chains are all priced at over 35x PE each. On a relative basis, we believe market leader BDMS has the best relative value,...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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