External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity.</li><li>We expect the big-4 banks to still deliver 5-15% EPS growth supported by 9-16% loans growth and better liquidity in 2H24.</li><li>Maintain Overweight with BBCA as our top pick in the sector given its higher liquidity, CASA ratio, and earnings growth.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity.We expect the big-4 banks to still deliver 5-15% EPS growth supported by 9-16% loans growth and better liquidity in 2H24.Maintain Overweight with BBCA as our top pick in the sector given its higher liquidity, CASA ratio, and earnings growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

<ul><li>The smooth elections bode well for stability, while the likelihood of a one-round Presidential election lowers market uncertainty.</li><li>In our view, potential positives from a Prabowo govt are the prospect of higher economic growth, aided fiscal expansion and the key programs.</li><li>We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The smooth elections bode well for stability, while the likelihood of a one-round Presidential election lowers market uncertainty.In our view, potential positives from a Prabowo govt are the prospect of higher economic growth, aided fiscal expansion and the key programs.We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Possible Positive ST Sentiment from the Likelihood of a One-Round Presidential Election

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Loans growth to moderate in FY24F, earnings trimmed by 3% on lower fees</li><li>BBCA’s reported FY23 net profit of Rp48.6tn (+19%yoy), loans and deposits growth, and NIM were in-line with our estimates</li><li>The management provides guidance for moderation in loans growth at 9-10%, a relatively stable NIM, CoC, and CIR in FY24F</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Loans growth to moderate in FY24F, earnings trimmed by 3% on lower feesBBCA’s reported FY23 net profit of Rp48.6tn (+19%yoy), loans and deposits growth, and NIM were in-line with our estimatesThe management provides guidance for moderation in loans growth at 9-10%, a relatively stable NIM, CoC, and CIR in FY24FContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - Loans Growth to Moderate in FY24F

<ul><li>Rising mortgage rates shall be one of the drivers of higher yieldsin FY24, inline with our sector thesis.</li><li>Among the big-4 banks, BBCA has the highest contribution from mortgages at 15.4% of total loans, followed by BBNI.</li><li>Maintain Overweight on the sector’s decent earnings growth, sound macro outlook, and potential rate cuts; BBCA and BMRI as ourtop picks.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Rising mortgage rates shall be one of the drivers of higher yieldsin FY24, inline with our sector thesis.Among the big-4 banks, BBCA has the highest contribution from mortgages at 15.4% of total loans, followed by BBNI.Maintain Overweight on the sector’s decent earnings growth, sound macro outlook, and potential rate cuts; BBCA and BMRI as ourtop picks.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: On-Track for Higher Yields and NIMs in FY24 (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>BBNI has the highest exposure to SOE contractors at 2.4%, followed by BBRI and BMRI at 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.</li><li>There will only be a minimal impact on profitability as banks will reallocate their over-provisioning from other sectors to fill the hole.</li><li>Maintain Overweight on decent earnings growth, a sound macrooutlook, and potential rate cuts with BBCA and BMRI as our top picks.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBNI has the highest exposure to SOE contractors at 2.4%, followed by BBRI and BMRI at 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.There will only be a minimal impact on profitability as banks will reallocate their over-provisioning from other sectors to fill the hole.Maintain Overweight on decent earnings growth, a sound macrooutlook, and potential rate cuts with BBCA and BMRI as our top picks.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indonesia

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides banking and related services.  The Bank also provides custodianship, trusteeship, and management of pension funds of financial institutions.  Through its subsidiaries, the Bank also provides leasing and consumer financing services.

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Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity. We expect the big-4 banks to still...

BRI Danareksa Research

Possible Positive ST Sentiment from the Likelihood of a One-Round Presidential Election

We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.

BRI Danareksa Research