Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HSBC will release its results on Thursday and there remains risk of far worse credit metrics, not only related to CRE lending in HK and China</li>
<li>Construction loan risks are tangentially related to CRE and are also considered fairly high risk, where HSBC can see sizable migration to stage 3 loans</li>
<li>HSBC remains highly concentrated in UK and N America in its wholesale lending book, which we do not believe is well understood, and risky given economies</li>
</ul>


HSBC will release its results on Thursday and there remains risk of far worse credit metrics, not only related to CRE lending in HK and China
Construction loan risks are tangentially related to CRE and are also considered fairly high risk, where HSBC can see sizable migration to stage 3 loans
HSBC remains highly concentrated in UK and N America in its wholesale lending book, which we do not believe is well understood, and risky given economies


HSBC - Results on Thursday, Risk of BoCom Mark Down, Heavy UK, US Corporate Lending Not Positive

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This Original aims to identify the key investment opportunities among the listed brokers in the three major East Asian countries - China, Japan, and Korea. By looking at the development of the brokerage sectors in these three countries, we observe a general trend where upstart online brokers first compete against the more established brokers based on their cost and technological advantages. This then pushes the more established brokers to either focus on more lucrative wholesale businesses or adopt and invest in tech initiatives in order to stay competitive in the retail market.After further establishing themselves in the retail market, these upstart online brokers then also diversify and expand into the more lucrative wealth/asset management or even wholesale businesses.  By gauging at which phase the broker is in this cycle, investors can have a good understanding of its future outlook.In our opinion, Korean brokers currently offer the best value, while the Chinese pure-play online brokers offer the highest growth potential. As such, our pecking order, in terms of investment attractiveness, is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kiwoom-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20418:1" rel="noopener">Kiwoom Securities (039490 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-money-information-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8075:1" rel="noopener">East Money Information Co A (300059 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huatai-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:449:1" rel="noopener">Huatai Securities Co Ltd (H) (6886 HK)</a>.  <h2>What is Original?</h2>In this Original, we look into the competitive landscape of the brokerage sectors in China, Japan, and Korea. 55 listed brokers from these three countries are included in this Original as the company universe for regression analysis. Among them, a total of 8 brokers are chosen, with their company profiles separately presented, to further showcase and contrast the impact of competition and technological disruption. Based on this, a pecking order is then developed, both on a country and a company basis.

This Original aims to identify the key investment opportunities among the listed brokers in the three major East Asian countries - China, Japan, and Korea. By looking at the development of the brokerage sectors in these three countries, we observe a general trend where upstart online brokers first compete against the more established brokers based on their cost and technological advantages. This then pushes the more established brokers to either focus on more lucrative wholesale businesses or adopt and invest in tech initiatives in order to stay competitive in the retail market.After further establishing themselves in the retail market, these upstart online brokers then also diversify and expand into the more lucrative wealth/asset management or even wholesale businesses.  By gauging at which phase the broker is in this cycle, investors can have a good understanding of its future outlook.In our opinion, Korean brokers currently offer the best value, while the Chinese pure-play online brokers offer the highest growth potential. As such, our pecking order, in terms of investment attractiveness, is Kiwoom Securities (039490 KS), East Money Information Co A (300059 CH), Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US), Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) / Huatai Securities Co Ltd (H) (6886 HK).  What is Original?In this Original, we look into the competitive landscape of the brokerage sectors in China, Japan, and Korea. 55 listed brokers from these three countries are included in this Original as the company universe for regression analysis. Among them, a total of 8 brokers are chosen, with their company profiles separately presented, to further showcase and contrast the impact of competition and technological disruption. Based on this, a pecking order is then developed, both on a country and a company basis.

Asian Brokers: A Competition Between Value and Growth

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Macroeconomics

Monthly Newsletter | May 2021
Monetary data in May suggest that the environment has turned a notch tighter in China. Loan and deposit growth surprised on the downside and signals the beginning of yet another challenging period for the Chinese banks in the months ahead.
Both the asset and liability sides of the banks' balance sheets hit a wall in April. Loan growth missed consensus by a notable margin, driven by a softer mortgage market and slower corporate credit expansion. The net decline in new deposits was more worrying and the risk of disintermediation is on the rise, particularly for the smaller banks.
Deleveraging real estate exposures remains a top priority for the regulators. New mortgage rates have edged up, continuing a trend since 1Q21. Margins have widened slightly for new corporate loans as well. This supports our view that net interest margins have bottomed out and is mildly positive for the H-share G-SIBs.  
We expect the central bank to maintain a neutral policy for the remainder of 2021. The policy rates and loan prime rate will likely hold steady. That said, smaller banks that rely extensively on the interbank market may find it increasingly difficult to source cheap funding. Interbank bank defaults among the unlisted banks are not a remote possibility.
We will remain underweight the H-share banks against MSCI China <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/msci-china-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22895:1" rel="noopener">(MXCN INDEX)</a> until 2Q21 earnings. Meanwhile, we will watch closely whether a sales rebound story will materialize for the life insurers, as bank deposit outflows may find their way into savings polices in the coming quarters.

<div>
Related Insights
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/icbc-the-prefs-are-junk-and-should-trade-like-it" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51598" rel="noopener">ICBC: The Prefs Are Junk and Should Trade Like It</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/icbc-the-bond-identity-a-zero-growth-dividend-discount-story" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51463" rel="noopener">ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story</a> </li>
</ul>
</div>

Monthly Newsletter | May 2021
Monetary data in May suggest that the environment has turned a notch tighter in China. Loan and deposit growth surprised on the downside and signals the beginning of yet another challenging period for the Chinese banks in the months ahead.
Both the asset and liability sides of the banks' balance sheets hit a wall in April. Loan growth missed consensus by a notable margin, driven by a softer mortgage market and slower corporate credit expansion. The net decline in new deposits was more worrying and the risk of disintermediation is on the rise, particularly for the smaller banks.
Deleveraging real estate exposures remains a top priority for the regulators. New mortgage rates have edged up, continuing a trend since 1Q21. Margins have widened slightly for new corporate loans as well. This supports our view that net interest margins have bottomed out and is mildly positive for the H-share G-SIBs.  
We expect the central bank to maintain a neutral policy for the remainder of 2021. The policy rates and loan prime rate will likely hold steady. That said, smaller banks that rely extensively on the interbank market may find it increasingly difficult to source cheap funding. Interbank bank defaults among the unlisted banks are not a remote possibility.
We will remain underweight the H-share banks against MSCI China (MXCN INDEX) until 2Q21 earnings. Meanwhile, we will watch closely whether a sales rebound story will materialize for the life insurers, as bank deposit outflows may find their way into savings polices in the coming quarters.


Related Insights




ICBC: The Prefs Are Junk and Should Trade Like It 

ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story 



Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 10th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for BOC, Li Auto, Meituan, HSBC, Tencent, CNOOC, Kuaishou Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 10th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for BOC, Li Auto, Meituan, HSBC, Tencent, CNOOC, Kuaishou Technology.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 10th): BOC, Li Auto, Meituan, HSBC, Tencent, CNOOC, Kuaishou Technology

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 10th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$1,023.9 million, led by consumer staples, materials, financials sectors, and offset by information technology, communication services, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Moutai, CMB, Shenzhen Inovance Technology, Haier Smart Home, Luxshare Precision, Nari Technology, Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology, Midea, Focus Media.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 10th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$1,023.9 million, led by consumer staples, materials, financials sectors, and offset by information technology, communication services, consumer discretionary.
We highlight flows for Moutai, CMB, Shenzhen Inovance Technology, Haier Smart Home, Luxshare Precision, Nari Technology, Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology, Midea, Focus Media.


Northbound Flows (May 10th): Moutai, CMB, Inovance, Haier Smart Home, Luxshare Precision, Nari

China

Bank of Communications Co. Ltd. provides a full range of commercial banking services including RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, discount, currency trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)

HSBC - Results on Thursday, Risk of BoCom Mark Down, Heavy UK, US Corporate Lending Not Positive

HSBC reports results Thursday. Credit metrics in CRE lending HK, CH are of concern, but so are construction loans. UK and N America corporate loan...

Daniel Tabbush

Asian Brokers: A Competition Between Value and Growth

The Original looks into the current competitive landscape of the brokerage sectors in China, Japan, and Korea, with a view to developing a list of...

Alec Tseung

Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May

Monetary data in May point to a tighter environment for both lending and funding. Mortgage rates have edged up, but the deposit drain is worrying....

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 10th): BOC, Li Auto, Meituan, HSBC, Tencent, CNOOC, Kuaishou Technology

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for BOC, Li Auto, Meituan, HSBC, Tencent, CNOOC, Kuaishou...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (May 10th): Moutai, CMB, Inovance, Haier Smart Home, Luxshare Precision, Nari

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Moutai, CMB, Inovance, Haier Smart Home, Luxshare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)