External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Despite the 91% increase in provisions, BBRI booked 1Q24 net profit of Rp15.9tr in 1Q24 (+2% yoy) with strong PPOP growth of +22% yoy.</li><li>The mgmt raised CoC/NPL guidance to max 3.0% (from 2.2-2.3%) and to max 3.0% (from 2.7-2.9%), but with an expected improvement in 2H24.</li><li>Since Mar24, BBRI’s valuation has de-rated to 2.4x PBV (+0.5SD vs 5- year mean) as the shares fell 15%, underperforming the sector by 11%.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite the 91% increase in provisions, BBRI booked 1Q24 net profit of Rp15.9tr in 1Q24 (+2% yoy) with strong PPOP growth of +22% yoy.The mgmt raised CoC/NPL guidance to max 3.0% (from 2.2-2.3%) and to max 3.0% (from 2.7-2.9%), but with an expected improvement in 2H24.Since Mar24, BBRI’s valuation has de-rated to 2.4x PBV (+0.5SD vs 5- year mean) as the shares fell 15%, underperforming the sector by 11%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) Positive 1Q24 Net Profit Growth Despite Higher Provisions

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We estimate the big-4 banks’ FY24F earnings to be potentially 1-6% lower if the BI rate is unchanged; BBCA as the least affected bank.</li><li>While previously a higher-for-longer scenario drove a lower ROE and sharp de-rating, FY24F ROE is resilient amid better asset quality.</li><li>We remain Overweight on the banking sector at the current implied CoE of 9.0%, -1SD to its 5-year average. BBCA remains our top pick.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate the big-4 banks’ FY24F earnings to be potentially 1-6% lower if the BI rate is unchanged; BBCA as the least affected bank.While previously a higher-for-longer scenario drove a lower ROE and sharp de-rating, FY24F ROE is resilient amid better asset quality.We remain Overweight on the banking sector at the current implied CoE of 9.0%, -1SD to its 5-year average. BBCA remains our top pick.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Solid asset quality and capital to weather macro uncertainties (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>Our FY23 results recap shows market EPS growth of -12% yoy, but growth would reach +4.1% if we exclude one-offs (mainly from GOTO).</li><li>We see mixed growth prospects for 1Q24 with ST headwinds in Banks and Telco, but possible outperformers in Consumers, Retail, Healthcare.</li><li>We reiterate our view on commodities as a possible ST tactical play, along with the defensive domestic names for preferred 2Q24 exposure.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our FY23 results recap shows market EPS growth of -12% yoy, but growth would reach +4.1% if we exclude one-offs (mainly from GOTO).We see mixed growth prospects for 1Q24 with ST headwinds in Banks and Telco, but possible outperformers in Consumers, Retail, Healthcare.We reiterate our view on commodities as a possible ST tactical play, along with the defensive domestic names for preferred 2Q24 exposure.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: Short-Term Domestic Growth Challenges in 2Q24 May Drive Further De-Risking

<ul><li>We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity.</li><li>We expect the big-4 banks to still deliver 5-15% EPS growth supported by 9-16% loans growth and better liquidity in 2H24.</li><li>Maintain Overweight with BBCA as our top pick in the sector given its higher liquidity, CASA ratio, and earnings growth.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity.We expect the big-4 banks to still deliver 5-15% EPS growth supported by 9-16% loans growth and better liquidity in 2H24.Maintain Overweight with BBCA as our top pick in the sector given its higher liquidity, CASA ratio, and earnings growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

<ul><li>The smooth elections bode well for stability, while the likelihood of a one-round Presidential election lowers market uncertainty.</li><li>In our view, potential positives from a Prabowo govt are the prospect of higher economic growth, aided fiscal expansion and the key programs.</li><li>We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The smooth elections bode well for stability, while the likelihood of a one-round Presidential election lowers market uncertainty.In our view, potential positives from a Prabowo govt are the prospect of higher economic growth, aided fiscal expansion and the key programs.We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Possible Positive ST Sentiment from the Likelihood of a One-Round Presidential Election

Indonesia

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides commercial banking activities and its related services. The Bank also provides banking activities based on shariah principles.

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Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) Positive 1Q24 Net Profit Growth Despite Higher Provisions

Despite the 91% increase in provisions, BBRI booked 1Q24 net profit of Rp15.9tr in 1Q24 (+2% yoy) with strong PPOP growth of +22% yoy.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: Solid asset quality and capital to weather macro uncertainties (OVERWEIGHT)

We estimate the big-4 banks’ FY24F earnings to be potentially 1-6% lower if the BI rate is unchanged; BBCA as the least affected bank.

BRI Danareksa Research

Equity Strategy: Short-Term Domestic Growth Challenges in 2Q24 May Drive Further De-Risking

Our FY23 results recap shows market EPS growth of -12% yoy, but growth would reach +4.1% if we exclude one-offs (mainly from GOTO).

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity. We expect the big-4 banks to still...

BRI Danareksa Research

Possible Positive ST Sentiment from the Likelihood of a One-Round Presidential Election

We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.

BRI Danareksa Research